The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its expectations for the future of nuclear power. The agency’s latest report, the 45th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, says nuclear capacity could more than double by 2050.
- In the best-case scenario, nuclear power could expand from 377 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to nearly 992 GW by 2050 — that’s a 2.6 X increase.
The findings were shared by IAEA’s Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi, at the organization’s General Conference in Vienna, Austria.
The report draws on expert analysis and examines how nuclear power could shape the world’s clean energy transition. It’s clear that nuclear power is being seen as a major player in helping meet global energy and climate goals.
Nuclear Energy as a Backbone for Sustainable Electricity
At the end of 2024, the world had 417 nuclear reactors in operation, producing a combined 377 GW of electricity. Another 62 reactors, totaling 64.4 GW, were being built, and 23 reactors with 19.7 GW were temporarily offline.
Over the year, six new reactors were added, with 6.8 GW of capacity, while four reactors with 2.9 GW were retired. Two reactors that had been shut down were restarted, adding 1.6 GW back to the grid. Additionally, construction began on nine new reactors, expected to provide an additional 10.1 GW.
Electricity demand grew by about 3.4% in 2024, while nuclear electricity rose by 2.8%, reaching 2,670 terawatt-hours (TWh). Despite this growth, nuclear’s share of total electricity slipped slightly to 8.7%. Even though it’s the second-largest source of low-carbon power, nuclear energy’s share has declined since the early 1990s.
Fossil fuels, especially coal, still account for the bulk of electricity, though coal’s share has been dropping since its peak in 2010.
Other low-carbon sources like hydro, wind, and solar are also contributing. Hydropower, which remains the largest source of clean energy, now accounts for 15% of global electricity, down from 21% in 1980. Wind and solar energy, however, have grown rapidly, reaching 8% and 7% of the global electricity mix, respectively, in 2024.
IAEA’s Bold Predictions for Nuclear Energy’s Future
The IAEA’s projections show two possible futures: a high case and a low case.
- In the high case, nuclear capacity could rise by 18% by 2030 and 2.6 times by 2050. This would help nuclear’s share in the energy mix slightly increase.
- The low case sees only modest growth: a 13% rise by 2030 and a 32% increase by 2050, which would lead to a small decline in its share of total capacity.
The gap between these two futures largely depends on how governments and industries act today. The high case assumes nations are committed to expanding nuclear energy, while the low case assumes things continue as they are, with few policy changes.
Significantly, the IAEA has been consistently raising its forecast for nuclear power. The trend started after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, when many thought nuclear energy’s role would shrink. However, rising concerns about climate change, energy security, and investment opportunities have shifted global opinion.
Grossi pointed out that there’s now a global consensus: nuclear energy is essential for achieving clean, reliable, and sustainable electricity.
The Role of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
One of the biggest differences between these scenarios is the contribution of small modular reactors (SMRs). These smaller, more flexible reactors are seen as crucial to expanding nuclear power. In the high case, SMRs would supply 24% of the new capacity added by 2050. In the low case, they would only account for 5%.
SMRs are being developed to be safer, cheaper, and quicker to deploy than traditional reactors. Many experts believe they could be a game-changer, especially for countries with smaller grids or limited infrastructure.
What’s Driving the Change
Jessica Callen-Kovtunova, an energy planner at the IAEA, explained that investments in nuclear power are being encouraged by several factors:
- Climate concerns and policy support – Countries are committing to lowering their carbon footprints.
- Rising electricity demand – Tech companies and expanding industries need more energy.
- Development banks backing nuclear projects – Institutions like the World Bank are financing nuclear plant upgrades and SMRs.
- Lifetime extensions of existing reactors – Many reactors have been in operation for over 30 or even 40 years.
Unlocking Nuclear’s Full Potential
Even with strong support, scaling up nuclear power is not an easy task. The high scenario would require an average of 26 GW of new nuclear capacity each year — more than four times the recent five-year average of 5.9 GW annually.
Another major hurdle is the ageing nuclear fleet. Two-thirds of reactors have been running for over 30 years, and 40% have been online for over 40 years. Without adding new reactors or extending existing ones, a large portion of nuclear capacity could be lost in the coming decades.
Thus, according to Grossi, three major challenges must be addressed for nuclear power to expand globally:
- Support for newcomer countries – Many nations need help building the technical, legal, and financial frameworks for nuclear projects.
- Adapting regulation – Rules and licensing procedures must evolve to accommodate new technologies like SMRs.
- Financing – Large investments are required, and innovative funding models will be essential.
The IAEA is working with countries to address these challenges and make nuclear power a cornerstone of the clean energy future.
Extending Reactor Lifetimes: A Key Solution
Another important factor that the IAEA’s report emphasizes is extending the operating life of existing reactors. Experts say it is the most cost-effective way to keep nuclear energy part of the grid. In the high case, only 81 GW of capacity is expected to retire by 2050, while in the low case, 156 GW could be retired.
In the high case, new additions would reach 615 GW, whereas the low case would result in only 184 GW of net additions by 2050.
The Bigger Picture: Energy and Climate
Nuclear energy’s future is tied closely to global energy demand. By 2050, electricity consumption is expected to double, with electricity making up a much larger share of overall energy use. For example, in North America, electricity’s share of final energy consumption is projected to rise from 23% in 2024 to 45% in 2050.
Nuclear energy is set to play a bigger role in fighting climate change. The path won’t be easy, but new technologies like SMRs create opportunities. Extending the life of existing reactors adds further support. Together, they can deliver reliable, low-carbon energy for billions.
The IAEA’s growing forecasts show rising confidence in nuclear’s potential. As a result, the world’s energy future looks cleaner and more secure.
