HomeCarbon CreditsXpansiv Sees Surge in VCM Activity, Spot N-GEO Price More Than Double

Xpansiv Sees Surge in VCM Activity, Spot N-GEO Price More Than Double

Xpansiv’s verified carbon market (VCM) experienced notable dynamics last week, with an increase in buyers and competitive price bids. A participant highlighted this “dynamism in the market,” which was evidenced by a significant number of trades matched on the CBL spot exchange.

The data presented in this report is from Xpansiv Data and Analytics, which provides comprehensive spot firm and indicative bids/offers, as well as transaction data. 

Xpansiv supports the CBL, the world’s largest spot environmental commodity exchange, offering a daily and historical bid, offer, and transaction data for carbon credits, compliance, and voluntary renewable energy certificates, and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) traded on the CBL platform. The spot data is enriched by forward prices from top market intermediaries, aggregated registry statistics, and ratings from leading providers.

Key Carbon Credit Transactions and Prices

A noteworthy transaction included a 5,000 metric ton spot N-GEO trade at $1.15, aligning with the prices of over 200,000 tons of N-GEO-eligible credit OTC transactions settled via the exchange. This carbon price level was more than double the contract settlement from the previous week. 

Meanwhile, CME Group’s CBL N-GEO December futures settled at $1.01, showing a rare discount to the spot N-GEO. The CBL N-GEO, CBL GEO, and CBL C-GEO futures all closed the week with minor movements of $0.01 on light trading volume.

CBL GEO Standardized VCM contracts

CME Group CBL GEO futures contracts

Several project-specific credits were also matched on the CBL screen. These included:

  • VCS 2250 vintage 2020 Pakistani Delta Blue carbon credits: 3,678 credits matched at $30.00.
  • VCS 674 vintage 2018 Indonesian Rimba Raya credits: 6,363 credits transacted at $7.80.
  • VCS 595 vintage 2020 United States Anew Elk Forestry Project credits: $18.00.
  • VCS 1477 vintage 2019 Indonesian Katingan credits: $5.50.
  • Vintage 2015 Katingan credits: $5.00.
  • VCS 2886 vintage 2022 Malawi cookstoves credits: $3.99.
  • ACR 556 vintage 2019 United States Industrial Process credits: $2.75.
  • VCS 1115 vintage 2018 Brazilian AFOLU credits: $2.50.
  • ACR 455 vintage 2018 United States Industrial Process units: $2.00.
  • VCS 1753 vintage 2020 Indian bundled solar credits: $1.25.

An additional 200,000-plus tons of OTC transactions were settled via CBL’s automated post-trade settlement infrastructure, bringing the exchange’s total volume to 325,079 tons.

The 20-day moving average price for recent-vintage nature credits stood at $7.03, while technology instruments averaged $1.30.

What’s Happening in North American REC Market?

PJM REC market activity saw significant trading, particularly with Virginia REC trades and larger New Jersey solar REC transactions. Pricing remained stable across PJM, with New Jersey solar RECs closing at $208.00 as energy year 2024 concluded. This showed an uptick at the end of the week. 

North American REC MarketsVirginia markets experienced slight price increases for 2023 and 2024 vintages, closing at $35.40 and $35.75, respectively.

In NEPOOL markets, Massachusetts solar REC II traded at $243.00, up from $230.00 in late May. Meanwhile, Massachusetts solar REC I and Class I markets were relatively quiet. Maine Class I markets saw a 0.8% increase week-over-week, closing at $39.40.

The VCM demonstrated increased activity and competitive trading last week, indicating growing interest and engagement from market participants. Xpansiv continues to provide essential data and analytics, supporting informed trading decisions in the carbon and renewable energy markets.

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