China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, is making notable strides in its fight against climate change by stabilizing carbon emissions. Driven by the rapid adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs), experts are cautiously optimistic about the nation’s progress toward its climate goals.
However, challenges remain as Beijing balances economic growth with its ambitions for net zero.
Electric Vehicles Surge as China Leads Global Market
China’s green transition is advancing faster than expected. A new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) highlights a remarkable shift in optimism.
- In a survey of 44 experts, 44% believe China’s carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025, a sharp increase from just 15% in 2022.
The country’s renewable energy and EV sectors have seen explosive growth. For three consecutive months in 2024, more than half of all new cars sold in China were electric.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, China continues to lead the global EV market, with October PEV (plug-in electric vehicle) sales reaching a record 1.2 million units. From July to October, PEVs in China consistently outperformed internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, achieving an average of 53% market share.
Pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) remain dominant, though their share has fallen to 58% in 2024, down from 66% in 2023, as range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) gain traction. REEVs, featuring smaller batteries and a small ICE for recharging, highlight evolving consumer preferences.
China-made BEVs are also expanding in Europe despite a 27% EU tariff on Chinese imports. Negotiations between the EU and China are underway to address tariffs and stabilize EV pricing, underscoring China’s growing influence on the global EV landscape.
This surge underscores China’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, hydropower generation, which had previously declined due to droughts, has recovered, contributing to a slight drop in emissions since early 2024.
However, emissions remain “stabilized” in Q3 2024 rather than in a structural decline as shown by Carbon Brief’s analysis below. This is despite increased coal power usage, largely offset by a surge in renewable energy.
Heavily polluting industries, such as construction, continue to pose significant challenges. The sector’s slowdown has helped offset emissions in the short term, but long-term solutions will require a comprehensive overhaul of China’s industrial landscape.
Global Leadership Amid Challenges: China at COP29
China’s leadership on climate action has become even more critical amid shifting global dynamics. The United States, under Donald Trump’s re-election, has retreated from climate leadership, with plans to exit the Paris Agreement once again.
At COP29 in Baku, China’s delegation, led by climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, took center stage as other nations sought its support for ambitious climate action.
During a side event at COP29, Liu Zhenmin received applause for reaffirming the country’s commitment to global climate efforts, calling climate change “a pressing global challenge that demands a collective response.” The event also marked the continuation of a methane-tracking agreement initially forged under Joe Biden’s administration.
- RELATED: COP29: Launch of “An Eye on Methane”, Will Pledges Turn into Progress?
China’s growing role on the international stage is encouraging. However, domestic challenges could undermine its ability to meet global expectations.
Economic Growth Versus Decarbonization
China’s dual targets of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2060 are ambitious but achievable with the right strategies. Yet, meeting these goals will require navigating significant economic and policy challenges.
The world’s largest carbon polluter pledged to reduce its carbon intensity—the amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP—by 18% between 2020 and 2025.
However, current trends suggest it may fall short. High-tech manufacturing, a key driver of economic growth, is more energy-intensive than sectors like household consumption and services.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Crea, points out that even if China’s GDP grows by 5% in 2025, the country would need an unprecedented 9.7% reduction in emissions to meet its carbon intensity target. She particularly noted that:
“This scenario would make meeting global climate targets all but impossible.”
Such a dramatic shift will require accelerated deployment of renewable energy and a strategic reorientation of economic development, Myllyvirta added.
Renewables Boom: A Climate Balancing Act
Despite these challenges, China’s renewable energy boom offers hope. The country has been a global leader in solar and wind energy installations, and its investments in clean energy infrastructure are unparalleled.
In 2023, China installed more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined.
More notably, clean energy sources accounted for a record 44% of China’s electricity generation in May 2024. Solar power saw the largest increase, with a 78% year-on-year rise, followed by significant recoveries in hydropower and modest gains in wind energy.
This growth outpaced the rise in electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal’s share to a historic low of 53%. These trends contributed to a 3.6% reduction in CO2 emissions from China’s power sector and kept overall emissions flat.
This emissions stability reflects China’s energy transition and highlights the potential for renewables to curb emissions growth as economic activity increases.
Electric vehicle adoption has also been transformative. Government subsidies and supportive policies have made China the world’s largest EV market. This trend, coupled with advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure, positions the nation as a leader in sustainable transportation.
However, policy clarity remains crucial. Experts emphasize the need for a detailed roadmap outlining how China will meet its 2030 and 2060 climate targets. A revised emissions trajectory under the Paris Agreement, expected by February 2025, will be a critical indicator of Beijing’s climate ambitions.
China’s success or failure in reducing emissions will have far-reaching implications for global climate targets. As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the country’s actions are pivotal in limiting global warming to 1.5°C. With COP29 setting the stage for deeper international collaboration, China’s next moves will be crucial in shaping the path toward a more sustainable future.