China, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has set its first absolute emissions reduction goal. In a video at the UN climate summit in New York, President Xi Jinping announced that China aims to cut emissions by 7 to 10% by 2035 compared to its peak.
This marks a major shift in China’s climate policy. Before, the focus was on reducing carbon intensity and setting peak timelines. While this pledge indicates progress, many experts believe it lacks the ambition needed to meet global targets in the Paris Agreement.
A New Era in China’s Climate Policy
Xi’s pledge is China’s first absolute emissions reduction goal. It targets all greenhouse gases and economic sectors, moving beyond earlier commitments that focused only on carbon intensity.
In addition to the 7–10 percent cut, Beijing promised to:
- Increase the share of non-fossil fuels to over 30 percent of total energy use by 2035.
- Expand wind and solar capacity to 3,600 gigawatts, over six times 2020 levels.
- Strengthen its national emissions trading market to support reductions.
As reported by the leading daily, South China Morning Post, Xi called this change a sign of the times, stating: “Green and low-carbon energy and development transition are the trend of our era.”
However, climate advocates quickly pointed out the shortcomings. Yao Zhe, a global policy adviser from Greenpeace East Asia, noted that to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, China needs to cut emissions by at least 30 percent by 2035. Some studies suggest cuts of over 50 percent are necessary.
Between Caution and Flexibility
China’s choice of a conservative target is strategic. Experts say the 7–10 percent cut reflects Beijing’s desire to maintain flexibility for economic growth and energy security.
Xi also suggested the commitment might be exceeded, calling it a “floor, not a ceiling.” This means stronger reductions could happen based on changing domestic and international conditions.
Signs of a Peak: China’s Emissions Show Early Decline
Recent data hints that China’s emissions may have peaked. From March 2024 to March 2025, emissions from the power sector dropped by about 2 percent due to record renewable capacity and reduced coal use.
In the first half of 2025, overall CO₂ emissions fell by about 1 percent. Solar installations hit record highs, and wind power capacity surged. Coal consumption in power dropped by 3 percent during this time.
Yet, contradictions remain. Emissions from coal-based chemicals and synthetic fuels are still rising, undermining progress. Additionally, 2024 saw the highest number of new coal power permits in a decade, showing provincial governments still rely on coal for short-term needs.
China’s greenhouse gas emissions were around 15.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, near record levels. Analysts expect a plateau soon, followed by gradual declines, but only if the next five-year plan prioritizes rapid decarbonization.
Record-Breaking Clean Energy Push
Despite the modest target, China’s clean energy growth is remarkable. According to Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2025, the country invested $625 billion in renewables in 2024, surpassing Europe and North America combined.
Key milestones include:
- Wind and solar capacity exceeded 1,200 gigawatts by 2024, hitting the target six years early.
- Investment in national energy projects, like offshore wind and grid upgrades, rose 22 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
- New energy storage technologies saw a 69 percent increase in deployment.
- A national power market is expected to launch by late 2025, allowing for cross-regional trading and more renewable energy participation.
China’s renewable pipeline now exceeds 1 terawatt, more than double the EU’s total capacity. The speed and scale of this growth are unmatched globally.
In the past 15 years, China has turned its industrial strength into a major force for global decarbonization. No other country can produce energy technologies at this scale, reshaping global markets.
Now moving on to this year, NEA data shows that as of February 2025, China has a total cumulative installed power capacity of 3,402GW. It’s up14.5% yoy.
Global Climate Stage: Xi’s Pledge Shakes the Spotlight
Xi’s announcement comes as global climate politics reach a crucial point. Top media reports indicate that nations must update their 2035 climate plans under the Paris Agreement before COP30 in Brazil. As the largest emitter, China’s targets will greatly influence global warming limits.
While Beijing chose a cautious target, the European Union is moving aggressively. The EU plans to cut emissions by 66 to 72 percent by 2035, far more ambitious than China’s promise. The bloc is finalizing its plan this year as part of its goal for net zero by 2050.
India has not yet proposed an absolute emissions reduction goal, focusing instead on reducing carbon intensity and boosting non-fossil fuel use.
The United States has stepped back under President Trump, who called climate efforts “the greatest con job ever.” This gap in climate leadership is one Xi seems eager to fill. He criticized countries resisting climate action, urging international focus.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva praised China’s plan, stating that Beijing is advancing “much further” in its energy transition than critics believe.
China’s Climate Path: Ambition or Hesitation?
Critics argue that China’s pledge falls short of what’s necessary. Yet, even a 7–10 percent cut means a significant reduction in absolute terms. For China, this could mean hundreds of millions of tonnes of emissions avoided by 2035.
This pledge shows a structural shift. China is moving from relative intensity goals to an absolute cap. This is required under the Paris Agreement for countries that have peaked their emissions. This change makes it harder to rely on efficiency gains while emissions rise.
China’s 7–10 percent emissions cut by 2035 is historic yet underwhelming. It marks a first step toward reducing emissions from the world’s largest greenhouse gas source, but does not meet scientific demands to keep warming below 1.5°C.
The country’s clean energy growth is unmatched. It’s reshaping global supply chains and lowering costs. With record renewable investments and quick electrification, Beijing acts as both a careful climate player and a leader in the green transition.
Nonetheless, whether China deepens its ambition in the coming years will be crucial for the world’s climate future.
