The global carbon market is changing fast in 2026. The latest insights from Sylvera’s State of Carbon Credits report show a clear shift. Volumes are falling, but value is holding steady. This means buyers now focus more on quality than quantity.
Furthermore, the market is splitting into two clear segments. High-quality credits are in demand and sell at higher prices. Older or lower-quality credits are losing interest. This divide is growing stronger and shaping how the market will evolve in the coming years.
Shell’s Sharp Cut Pulls Down Market Volumes
Carbon credit retirements reached 51 million in the first quarter of 2026. This is down from 55.3 million in the same period last year. The total market value also fell slightly to $290 million, compared to $309 million a year ago.
Despite this decline, prices did not weaken. The average price per credit increased to $5.69 from $5.60. This shows that buyers are willing to pay more for credits they trust.
Interestingly, a major reason for the drop in volumes was reduced activity from Shell. The company sharply cut its purchases. It retired just 494,000 credits in Q1 2026, compared to 6.7 million in Q1 2025 and 5.6 million in 2024. This single change had a large impact on the overall market.
Value Now Drives the Market
The carbon market now runs on a simple idea. Value matters more than volume. Buyers want credits that deliver real environmental impact. They prefer projects with clear data, strong verification, and proven results.
High-quality credits now define the market. These credits meet strict standards and often align with compliance systems. Because of this, they command higher prices and stronger demand.
This shift is also linked to the rise of compliance markets. Programs like CORSIA are increasing demand for reliable credits. As a result, voluntary buyers and compliance buyers now compete for the same supply.
Experts expect this trend to grow stronger. Compliance demand could surpass voluntary demand by 2027. This will increase pressure on supply and push premium credit prices higher.
The report highlighted that, investment-grade credits (BBB+) now command an average of $20.10 per credit in Q1 2026, up from $18.10 in Q1 2025, as shown in the image below:
Recap of 2025 Carbon Market
Compliance programs made up 24% of total retirements in 2025. According to Sylvera, this share is rising fast. It is expected to go beyond voluntary demand by 2027. This growth is mainly driven by CORSIA Phase 1 rules and the expansion of domestic carbon markets.
This means compliance demand is set to change the carbon market in a big way. Soon, both voluntary buyers and regulated systems will compete for the same high-quality credits. This is already making supply tighter and more competitive.
At the same time, international trading under Article 6 gained momentum. In 2025, around 20 new bilateral agreements were signed, and the first large-scale carbon credit trades took place. This shows that global carbon transfer systems are now becoming active in practice.
However, the system is also becoming more complex. One key factor is “corresponding adjustments,” which now decide whether a credit is fully acceptable in compliance markets. In addition, countries like China, Japan, Brazil, and Indonesia are building their own domestic carbon systems.
These systems are expected to create strong new demand, but they also add more rules and complexity to the market.
Supply Crunch Becomes the Key Challenge
However, Sylvera has flagged a different scenario for his year. Supply is now the biggest issue in the market. High-quality credits are becoming harder to find. Many credits exist, but not all meet strict requirements.
Furthermore, the main bottleneck is coming from approvals under Article 6. These rules govern international carbon trading. Delays in approvals mean many credits cannot yet enter the market. Now this creates a gap. Supply looks strong on paper, but usable supply remains limited. This shortage keeps prices firm and supports premium credits.
CORSIA Supply Expands, But Not Enough
There has been progress in aviation supply. Eligible credits under CORSIA reached 32.68 million. This is more than double last year’s level.
These credits come from major registries like Verra, Gold Standard, and ART TREES. However, supply still falls short in practice. Not all credits meet full compliance standards. This keeps the market tight and competitive.
Moving on, the question is what’s driving market growth.
Cookstoves Drive Market Growth
Cookstove projects are growing quickly. Their share increased from 17% in 2025 to 26% in Q1 2026. Africa leads this segment. Around 80% of the supply comes from the region. Most of these projects also meet compliance requirements under CORSIA.
Quality is improving in this category. Developers are moving away from older methods. They now use stronger, data-driven approaches. This shift improves trust and attracts more buyers.
Other projects:
- REDD+ Regains Trust: Forestry projects under REDD+ are making a comeback. Their share of retirements rose to 25% in Q1 2026. These projects faced heavy criticism in the past. However, new rules and better standards are restoring confidence. Updated methodologies have removed weaker credits. This has improved the overall quality of supply. Global policy clarity has also helped. Buyers now have more confidence in using REDD+ credits in compliance markets. This has supported demand.
- Waste management projects: They are growing in importance, and their share reached 10% of total retirements, the highest so far. Landfill methane projects are leading this growth. These projects are easier to measure and verify. They also meet compliance standards. Buyers are now exploring options beyond traditional sectors. Waste projects offer a reliable and practical solution.
New Credit Types Expand the Market
Several new project types are growing fast. They are adding fresh supply and attracting new buyers.
- Clean water projects have seen strong growth in recent years. They now produce millions of credits annually. Marine and mangrove projects are also gaining attention. They offer strong environmental benefits and long-term carbon storage.
- Industrial projects focused on nitrous oxide reduction are expanding as well. These projects are highly measurable and align well with compliance systems. At the same time, regenerative agriculture is growing at the fastest pace. It has moved from almost no activity to millions of credits in a short time.
These new categories are helping the market grow. However, quality remains the key factor that drives demand.
Buyers Shift Toward Better Credits: Regional Analysis
Buyer behavior is changing across regions. The United Kingdom is leading the move toward high-quality credits. Companies are under pressure to show real climate action. This has pushed them to choose better credits.
The United States and Canada are also improving. Buyers prefer projects that meet both voluntary and compliance standards. This supports demand for high-quality supply.
North America Sets the Benchmark
North America sets the benchmark for quality. A large share of its credits meets high rating standards. This strong quality supports higher prices. The average price reached $14.80, the highest globally. Strong domestic demand and strict standards drive this trend.
On the other hand, South America is seeing strong demand but limited new supply. This creates pressure in the market. Prices have slightly declined to $11.50. However, the quality mix is improving. Waste projects are helping fill the gap left by falling forestry supply.
- Europe remains the largest market by volume. However, the quality mix is still uneven. Some buyers continue to use lower-rated credits.
- Japan and South Korea focus on lower-cost options like hydropower. This keeps their share of high-quality credits low. In Latin America, buyers often choose local projects. Limited regulatory pressure keeps the quality demand weaker.
- Africa is moving toward better quality. High-rated supply is increasing, while low-rated supply is falling. As explained before, cookstove projects are the main driver. At the same time, lower-quality forestry projects are declining. This improves the region’s overall market position.
- Asia faces weaker market conditions. Supply has dropped sharply due to fewer renewable energy projects. The average price stands at $5.30, the lowest globally. Demand remains steady but lacks strong growth. This keeps prices under pressure.
Indonesia Stands Out in Asia
Indonesia is a bright spot in the region. Credit prices have risen strongly in the past year. High-quality peatland projects are driving this growth. International deals under Article 6 are also adding value. These factors attract buyers looking for reliable credit.
This shows how strong quality and supportive policies can boost market performance.
Final Take: Quality Defines the Future
The carbon market in 2026 is clear and focused. Quality now drives demand, pricing, and growth. Buyers are becoming more selective. They want credits that are verified, reliable, and compliant.
Supply remains tight, especially for high-quality credits. At the same time, compliance markets are growing. This increases competition and pushes prices higher.
The gap between high- and low-quality credits will continue to widen. In simple terms, the market is no longer about how many credits exist. It is about how good they are.
- READ MORE: Top Carbon Credit Companies to Watch in 2026