Petrobras and BNDES Launch a 5-Million Carbon Credit Push to Regrow Brazil’s Amazon

Jennifer L
-
0
Petrobras and BNDES Launch a 5-Million Carbon Credit Push to Regrow Brazil’s Amazon

Petrobras and the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) opened a public call for proposals under the ProFloresta+ program to buy 5 million high-integrity carbon credits tied to Amazon restoration. The move seeks to boost forest restoration in the Amazon. It will also set a clear price benchmark for restoration credits and aims to create jobs and attract finance in the restoration sector.

What Petrobras and BNDES Want from Developers

The public notice covers five contracts of 1 million carbon credits each. Each contract must be backed by ecological restoration on at least 3,000 hectares. Contracts will last for 25 years. They will focus on areas within the Amazon biome. This includes both private land and public land with forest concessions.

Key facts in brief:

  • Five contracts × 1 million credits.
  • Minimum 3,000 hectares per contract, restored and verified.
  • 25-year crediting and monitoring horizon.

The tender comes at a time when Brazil’s voluntary carbon market is growing. According to market surveys, Brazil issued about 14–16 million voluntary credits per year from 2021 to 2023. ARR (Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation) credits accounted for about 10–15% of these total issuances.

The ProFloresta+ purchase of 5 million credits is a large amount. It’s much larger than the current supply of restoration credits.

Financing the Forest: How ProFloresta+ Unlocks Capital

Petrobras will buy the carbon credits through public tenders. Winning project developers may then get low-interest loans or financing from BNDES to cover upfront costs.

The Brazilian bank created tools to reduce financial risk for restoration companies and landowners. This pairing of long-term offtake and concessional finance is meant to make restoration projects bankable.

Over the past decade, carbon markets have shown that early funding is a barrier for landowners who want to begin restoration. BNDES’ model tries to fix this by offering credit lines with longer repayment periods and by supporting milestone-based contracts. Payments for credits are expected to follow a schedule tied to planting, survival rates, and verified carbon removals.

ProFloresta+ enters a market where ARR credits from the Amazon have sold for US$8 to US$18 per tonne. Prices vary based on quality, verification standards, and project risks. Petrobras hasn’t revealed its expected clearing price yet. However, the public tender sets a reference point for buyers and sellers to see.

ARR carbon credit prices indicative averages
Data Sources: Sylvera, CarbonCredits.com

The chart shows an indicative low, a broad nature-based market average, and an observed Brazil ARR average (USD per tCO₂e).

The Road to 50,000 Hectares

ProFloresta+ is framed as a multi-phase program. The initial phase targets about 15,000 hectares and 5 million credits, backed by roughly R$450 million (about US$77 million).

Over a longer horizon, the program states it can restore up to 50,000 hectares and sequester an estimated 15 million tonnes of CO₂. Organizers also expect thousands of local jobs in planting, maintenance, and monitoring.

Average CO₂ absorption rates help explain the numbers. Research on the Amazon biome shows that restoring native forests can remove 8 to 15 tonnes of CO₂ per hectare each year in early growth.

As the forests mature, they store even more CO₂ over the long term. Assisted natural regeneration can achieve similar rates in degraded lands that still have seed banks. These benchmarks support the program’s estimate of long-term removals.

Amazon deforestation trends also show why the program is urgent. INPE satellite data recorded nearly 13,000 km² of deforestation in 2021, which fell to around 9,000 km² in 2023 after new enforcement measures.

amazon deforestation trend
Source: Mongabay

Scientists estimate that over 54.2 million hectares of the Amazon have been lost in 20 years and need active or assisted restoration. The ProFloresta+ restoration area is small compared with this total, but it can test large-scale finance models.

Officials estimate the pilot will create about 4,500 jobs. It will also set clear rules and prices for restoration credits. Past restoration programs in Brazil and Latin America usually create 2–4 jobs per hectare during planting.

For long-term monitoring and maintenance, they generate 1–2 jobs per hectare. These figures help explain how large-scale planting can support rural employment.

Why This Tender Could Redefine Brazil’s Carbon Landscape

The program marks one of the largest public tenders for restoration credits in Brazil. It links a major corporate buyer (Petrobras) with a development bank to deliver scaled restoration. This structure can do three things:

  • It provides price clarity.
  • It reduces financing gaps for projects.
  • It builds market confidence for high-integrity, nature-based credits.

Brazil is now a leading supplier of forest-related credits worldwide. REDD+, ARR, and agroforestry methods back this growth. But ARR supply has grown more slowly because restoration is expensive and long-term.

The chart shows indicative ARR credit price trends from 2019–2024, starting with broader market averages due to limited early ARR data. Reliable ARR-specific prices were not published in 2019–2020, so the series begins in 2021 with broader voluntary carbon market averages.

Prices rise from about US$4/t in 2021 to over US$7/t in 2022, dip slightly in 2023, then jump sharply in 2024 as demand for high-integrity nature-based removals strengthens.

ARR carbon credit price time series 2024
Data sources: MSCI Carbon Markets, Sylvera

A project involving 3,000 hectares usually needs several million dollars in early investment. Public tenders like ProFloresta+ help bridge this gap.

Public tenders of this size are rare. Indonesia’s peatland and mangrove restoration programs have offered fewer large-volume restoration credit offtake tenders. In contrast, Congo Basin countries have emphasized REDD+ over ARR.

As such, ProFloresta+ is unique. It combines public procurement with development bank financing. It also includes long-term monitoring requirements.

Trust but Verify: How Brazil Will Track Every Tonne

The call requires robust verification and long monitoring periods. Projects must follow recognized restoration practices and provide measurable carbon removals.

BNDES and Petrobras require documentation, monitoring, and a 25-year contract to ensure credits are real, additional, and permanent.

Most Brazilian projects use international standards like Verra VCS or Gold Standard, alongside the national carbon registry, field audits, and remote sensing. Developers must follow restoration protocols, including native species, minimum density, and survival monitoring.

To ensure permanence, 10–20% of credits are often placed in a buffer pool, with some using insurance against fire, drought, or pests. Developers must submit baseline studies, restoration plans, and social-environmental safeguards, and undergo audits and reporting to qualify for credits and BNDES financing. Public tender results will be transparent.

Weighing ProFloresta+’s Impact

Proponents list several benefits of the program:

  • It channels immediate demand and revenue to restoration projects.
  • It uses public procurement to set market standards and prices.
  • It couples purchases with concessional finance to lower project risks.

The program also aims to support social safeguards. Restoration in the Amazon often requires consent from local communities, Indigenous groups, and landholders. Many programs now include benefit-sharing rules, training, and local hiring. Monitoring includes checks on land use rights and social co-benefits.

But limits remain. Restoration takes time; carbon removals accrue over decades. Projects must manage risks such as fires, pests, land-use conflicts, and changing climate conditions.

Credit buyers and financiers need confidence that credits remain valid over long periods. Observers say the program will only prove effective if verification and long-term protection are strong.

A High-Stakes Test for Restoration at Scale

The public call opens the clock for proposals. Petrobras and BNDES will evaluate bids and award contracts. If the pilot goes as planned, the program can expand to more hectares and credits. This might also inspire other companies to start similar tenders. Many energy, aviation, and consumer goods companies in Brazil want to buy carbon credits. This shows that the market is growing.

The tender could strengthen Brazil’s restoration market by proving that public, transparent purchasing and concessional finance can bring large projects to scale. Success will depend on strong verification, durable finance, and effective on-the-ground management across the program’s long timeframe.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) Stock Rose on Q3 Strong Results: $57B Revenue, $100B AI Infrastructure Plan

Jennifer L
-
0
Nvidia’s (NVDA) Stock Rose on Q3 Strong Results: $57B Revenue, $100B AI Infrastructure Plan

Nvidia reported strong results for the third quarter of its fiscal year ending October 26, 2025. The company posted $57 billion in revenue, which increased 22% from the previous quarter and 62% from the same period last year. The numbers show that demand for Nvidia’s chips and systems remains high, especially in artificial intelligence and data center markets.

Q3 Performance: High Revenue and Steady Profit Margins

The Data Center segment led the quarter again with $51.2 billion in revenue. This segment grew 25% from the previous quarter and 66% from a year earlier. Growth comes from ongoing orders by cloud companies, enterprise clients, and research institutions. They use Nvidia’s platforms to train and run AI models.

Nvidia quarterly revenue Q3 2026
Source: Wind Info

Profitability also stayed strong. Nvidia reported a 73.4% GAAP gross margin, up slightly from the previous quarter. Its non-GAAP gross margin was 73.6%. These margins show the company continues to benefit from strong pricing power and high demand for advanced AI hardware.

Net income reached $31.9 billion, rising 21% from the previous quarter and 65% from the year before. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.30 on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Operating income also remained high at $36 billion, showing that Nvidia is managing its expenses while growing its revenue.

Nvidia Q3 Fiscal 2026 Summary
Source: Nvidia

Cash generation continued to strengthen. Free cash flow was about $22.1 billion, which increased by 32% from last year. Nvidia also returned $37 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 through buybacks and dividends. The company still has more than $62 billion available under its current buyback authorization.

Overall, the financial results show that Nvidia is still growing at a fast pace, even as its growth rate begins to stabilize. The results also provide a strong base as the company expands into new areas, such as infrastructure and energy-efficient computing.

After the earnings release, Nvidia’s stock rose about 3% in after-hours trading. This came after stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings. 

Nvidia NVDA stock

Q4 Forecast and Short-Term Trends

Nvidia expects another strong quarter ahead. For Q4 fiscal 2026, the company forecasts revenue of around $65 billion, plus or minus 2%. It also expects gross margins to improve slightly, reaching about 75% on a non-GAAP basis. Operating expenses are set to rise as the company invests in research and in new product development cycles.

The outlook suggests that Nvidia believes demand will remain strong in the near term. At the same time, the company faces new challenges. Growth is still high, but it is no longer rising at the extreme levels of earlier years.

Nvidia will focus more on expanding its infrastructure. They aim to boost efficiency and manage long-term costs. These trends set the stage for the company’s latest major initiative.

A Major Strategic Turn: The $100 Billion AI Deal with Brookfield

Nvidia just announced a big partnership with Brookfield Asset Management, a leading asset management company. They plan to create an AI infrastructure program worth up to $100 billion. This move marks a shift in Nvidia’s strategy.

The chipmaker will shift from just selling chips and systems. Now, it will help build a complete infrastructure for AI growth. The program will include investments in land, power, data centers, and advanced computing systems.

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia, stated:

“AI is transforming every industry, and like electricity, it will require every nation to build the infrastructure to power it. AI infrastructure demands land, power, and purpose-built supercomputers—and our partnership with Brookfield brings all of these elements together in a ready-to-deploy AI cloud.”

Brookfield brings experience in infrastructure, real estate, and energy. Nvidia brings the technology and the hardware that run modern AI models. Together, they aim to support global demand for AI computing, which continues to rise sharply.

data center electricity demand due AI 2030

This partnership shows that Nvidia is expanding beyond its traditional role as a chip designer. The company wants to be part of designing and building the physical foundations that AI depends on. This includes everything from cooling systems to energy supply.

The move could help Nvidia secure long-term revenue streams and reduce the bottlenecks that come from limited infrastructure capacity.

Powering AI Responsibly: Energy Use and Emissions

As Nvidia steps deeper into infrastructure, the environmental impact of AI computing becomes more important. Data centers and high-performance computing systems use large amounts of electricity. They also demand advanced cooling systems and steady grid capacity.

The company has acknowledged these challenges and increased its sustainability efforts across its operations, supply chain, and product designs.

A key part of Nvidia’s environmental strategy is its use of clean electricity. The company reports that it achieved 100% renewable electricity for its offices and data centers under its operational control. This shift reduces its Scope 1 and 2 emissions and lowers the carbon footprint of its own operations.

NVIDIA
Source: NVIDIA
  • The GPU king has set science-based targets to reduce emissions. They want to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The goal is to cut Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 50% by FY 2030, using FY 2023 as the baseline.

For its products, Nvidia aims to cut emissions intensity during customer use by 75% per petaflop of computing power by 2030. This target matters because most of Nvidia’s emissions come from how its products are used, not how they are manufactured.

A big part of Nvidia’s total emissions comes from its suppliers, also known as Scope 3 emissions. They occur during the production of components.

nvidia 2024 emissions
Source: NVIDIA

Nvidia is also engaging its supply chain. The company reports that it has engaged suppliers responsible for more than 80% of its upstream emissions. It encourages these suppliers to set their own science-based targets.

The Blackwell GPU and Beyond

Energy efficiency is another focus area. Nvidia’s newer systems deliver much better performance for every unit of power used. Some platforms show 50% to 99% lower energy use per unit of compute compared to older systems.

The Blackwell GPU platform is very energy-efficient. It’s built to manage large AI workloads and cut down on power use.

Despite these efforts, Nvidia still faces challenges. Its total emissions rose in recent years because demand for its products grew so quickly. Scope 3 emissions make up the biggest part of its footprint. Reducing them will require long-term efforts with suppliers and customers.

As Nvidia grows its infrastructure role, it must also create facilities that use clean electricity. Efficient cooling systems will help keep its environmental impact aligned with its goals.

Balancing Growth, Infrastructure, and Sustainability

Nvidia’s Q3 results show a company that remains strong financially and continues to grow at a fast pace. The new partnership with Brookfield shows that Nvidia is preparing for the next phase of AI growth by investing in global infrastructure.

At the same time, the company is working to reduce emissions, improve energy efficiency, and manage its environmental impact as its influence expands. The coming years will test how well Nvidia balances these goals.

Strong finances give the company momentum. Large-scale projects bring long timelines. Sustainability efforts will become more important as AI’s energy use grows worldwide. Nvidia’s long-term progress will depend on how effectively it brings the strategies together.

PowerBank and Orbit AI to Launch the First Orbital Cloud for Space-Based Digital Network

Jennifer L
-
0
PowerBank and Orbit AI to Launch the First Orbital Cloud for Space-Based Digital Network

PowerBank Corporation (NASDAQ:SUUN) and Orbit AI are preparing to launch a new project that aims to bring AI computing, communication systems, and blockchain verification into space. The companies plan to build the “Orbital Cloud“, a network of satellites. They can send data, run AI programs, and verify digital transactions while circling the Earth. Their first satellite, DeStarlink Genesis-1, is expected to launch in December 2025.

The project combines renewable energy, satellite networks, and advanced computing. It also reflects PowerBank’s move from traditional solar projects into digital infrastructure.

Dr. Richard Lu, CEO of PowerBank, said:

“The next frontier of human innovation isn’t just in space exploration — it’s in building the infrastructure of tomorrow above the Earth. The combined markets for orbital satellites, in-orbit data centers, blockchain verification, and solar-powered digital infrastructure are projected to exceed $700 billion over the next decade. By integrating solar energy with orbital computing, PowerBank is helping create a globally sovereign, AI-enabled digital layer in space — a system that can help power finance, communications, and critical infrastructure.”

Orbit AI will supply satellite technology and computing systems. PowerBank will provide solar energy and thermal control solutions that will allow the satellites to operate in space.

A New Type of Digital Infrastructure in Space

The Orbital Cloud brings together two main systems developed by Orbit AI. The first is DeStarlink, a decentralized network of satellites. Like current global internet constellations, it avoids relying on one operator or nation. The second is DeStarAI, a group of orbital AI data centers that use high-performance hardware to process data in low Earth orbit.

Orbit AI plans to combine these systems into one connected layer. This layer will allow satellites to store data, run AI models, and send information globally. It also verifies blockchain transactions.

The satellites work in space, so they don’t face typical limits found on Earth. They avoid issues like cooling needs, power shortages, and local regulations.

PowerBank plans to support this system by supplying solar arrays and cooling control technologies. These systems aim to power the satellites and help them manage the extreme temperatures in space. The company sees this as part of its move into digital assets and data centers, where solar energy helps meet the growing demand for AI and cloud computing.

How the Orbital Cloud Works

The Orbital Cloud works by placing computing hardware, communication tools, and blockchain systems together on satellites. These satellites move in low Earth orbit, which allows them to send data with low delay and maintain constant coverage.

The system uses solar panels to power the AI computers on board. Space offers steady sunlight, which allows continuous energy generation. Because there is no atmosphere in orbit, the satellites can also release heat more easily, which helps the computers stay cool. This reduces the need for complex cooling buildings or large data center facilities on Earth.

Genesis-1, the first test satellite, will include an Ethereum wallet and a blockchain node. This means it can verify transactions from orbit. It will also carry an initial AI payload that can run basic inference tasks. As more satellites launch, they will connect and form a larger network.

As the system expands, Orbit AI will let users send data, run AI programs, or request blockchain verification via the Orbital Cloud. PowerBank and Orbit AI expect this system to support industries such as finance, communication, defense, and digital identity systems.

Why Orbital Computing Is Becoming a Multi-Billion-Dollar Market

Several fast-growing sectors support the idea behind the Orbital Cloud. The companies point to forecasts showing strong growth in satellite technology, space-based data services, AI computing, and renewable energy infrastructure. Together, these sectors may form a market worth more than US$700 billion over the next decade.

Industry research highlights several key trends:

  • Orbital infrastructure is expected to grow from US$13.5 billion in 2024 to US$21.3 billion by 2029.

  • The global satellite market may reach US$615 billion by 2032.

  • In-orbit data centers may expand from US$1.77 billion in 2029 to US$39.1 billion by 2035.

  • Satellite data services may grow from about US$12 billion in 2024 to more than US$55 billion by 2034.

orbital data center market growth 2035

These markets grow due to rising demand for AI processing. Digital sovereignty also needs to drive them. Plus, the use of blockchain systems is on the rise. More countries and companies want secure, independent digital networks, but terrestrial infrastructure can’t keep up. So, space-based systems could become more important.

Moreover, orbital data centers avoid land, water, and grid constraints while accessing uninterrupted solar energy and natural radiative cooling. Companies like Axiom Space, Starcloud, Google, and ADA Space are also into this. These trends reinforce the commercial potential behind PowerBank and Orbit AI’s orbital ambitions.

PowerBank’s leadership sees this shift as an opportunity to combine solar infrastructure with the next wave of digital systems. Orbit AI’s leadership describes the Orbital Cloud as a way to build an autonomous digital layer that does not depend on Earth-based networks. Both companies view the partnership as a step toward long-term commercial growth in space technology.

The Hardware Stack Powering the Orbital Cloud

The project plans to use hardware and technologies from several global leaders. Orbit AI and PowerBank intend to work with companies that provide GPUs, satellite materials, launch systems, and blockchain tools. These parts work together to create the computing, communication, and verification functions of the Orbital Cloud.

The planned major contributors are:

  • NVIDIA for AI hardware.

  • Ethereum Foundation for blockchain frameworks.

  • Galaxy Space for satellite components.

  • Galactic Energy for launch technologies.

  • SparkX Satellite for building the Genesis-1 satellite.

  • AscendX Aerospace for materials for future satellite structures.

NVIDIA was chosen for its expertise in AI hardware, as shown by its record-breaking  earnings on November 19, 2025: $57 billion in quarterly revenue, driven by demand for its accelerators and new Blackwell GPUs. This technology surge confirms NVIDIA’s central role in powering next-generation AI networks both on Earth and in space – supporting projects like the Orbital Cloud as industries rapidly pivot to scalable, climate-resilient infrastructure.

These partners support different stages of the project. Some focus on computing power while others provide communications gear. Some contribute launch vehicles or satellite parts. This approach allows PowerBank and Orbit AI to blend proven technologies in their orbital system. They don’t have to build every part from scratch.

Because of this, the project uses high-performance hardware and well-tested satellite structures. This reduces risk during early launches and also allows companies to focus on scaling the system after the first satellites work well.

Funding Roadmap and Key Launch Targets

PowerBank plans to begin its involvement with an initial US$50,000 investment in Orbit AI. The company also aims to invest up to US$10 million. In return, it can get an equity stake of 2% to 20%, depending on the final terms and how well the Genesis-1 launch performs.

Both companies have outlined a development timeline that runs from 2025 to 2030. The key steps are:

  • Launch Genesis-1 in late 2025.

  • Deploy more satellites in 2026.

  • Build a complete constellation by 2027 and 2028.

From 2028 to 2030, the companies plan to introduce autonomous network operations, where satellites can coordinate, compute, and verify on their own without heavy ground control.

If these milestones succeed, the Orbital Cloud could be one of the first large-scale orbital computing systems. It could also influence how countries, companies, and developers design digital services in the future.

Verde AgriTech and UNDO Carbon Partner to Scale Enhanced Rock Weathering

Jennifer L
-
0
Verde AgriTech and UNDO Carbon Partner to Scale Enhanced Rock Weathering

Verde AgriTech, a company based in Brazil, has entered into an exclusive partnership with UNDO Carbon Ltd., a UK-based firm. Under this agreement, they will work together to create carbon removal credits. These credits will come from a process called Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW), using a special mineral that Verde mines in Brazil.

This deal marks Verde’s first major step into the carbon credit market. Both companies believe their combined strengths can lead to large-scale removal of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere.

What Is Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW)?

ERW is a method to capture CO₂ using natural minerals. The idea is to spread crushed rock, rich in silicate minerals, over farmland. When rain and soil interact with this rock, a natural chemical reaction pulls CO₂ from the air. Over time, that CO₂ becomes part of new, stable minerals — basically locking it in the ground.

UNDO specializes in this technique. They have developed systems to measure how much carbon is removed. They also know how to verify and package these removals into credits that companies can buy.

Scaling Carbon Removal Together

The partnership allows Verde to expand beyond fertilizers and minerals by selling carbon removal credits. Verde brings a large supply of glauconitic siltstone, mining operations, field-application capacity across Brazil, and local expertise in soil, agriculture, and mineral processing.

In effect, UNDO gains reliable access to mineral feedstock and a strong local partner, essential for scaling ERW projects. Verde’s facilities can handle, crush, and spread the rock, supported by its logistics and soil sampling experience.

UNDO will handle the measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of CO₂ removed from the atmosphere. Their platform uses proprietary (patent‑pending) protocols to ensure the credits are real and permanent. 

  • Together, they aim to remove hundreds of thousands of tonnes of CO₂, with each tonne of rock capturing 70–120 kilograms depending on conditions.

Verde’s mineral reserves, in the hundreds of millions of tonnes, give the partnership long-term capacity to meet these goals.

The deal also offers a new revenue stream for the agritech company and high-quality credits verified through strict MRV, aligning with standards such as Verra, Gold Standard, and Puro.earth.

Cristiano Veloso, Founder and CEO, Verde, said: 

“By combining our glauconitic siltstone products and established operations in Brazil with UNDO’s award-winning expertise in measurement, reporting, and verification, we aim to originate and deliver durable, high-quality carbon removal credits aligned with global best practices, including leading Enhanced Rock Weathering methodologies .” 

The warrant system further aligns interests: UNDO benefits only when credits are sold, while Verde shares in future growth. With these combined strengths, the partnership could scale ERW locally and globally, providing credible, durable carbon removal.

Turning CO₂ Into Credible Carbon Credits

Verde and UNDO plan to sell the carbon removal credits to companies that want to offset their emissions. These credits are expected to be durable — meaning the CO₂ will stay locked away for a very long time.

The voluntary carbon market has grown steadily in recent years. Industry estimates show it reached around $2 billion in annual transactions. Projections suggest that it could rise to over $40 billion by 2030 as companies demand more high-quality carbon removal. This growth provides a strong commercial foundation for Verde and UNDO as they prepare to bring ERW credits to market.

Meanwhile, estimates show the global carbon market will rise sharply by 2030.

global carbon credit market size 2030

To align incentives, Verde is granting UNDO up to 1.7 million share purchase warrants. These warrants will vest (or become usable) based on future sales of carbon credits. 

Here is how the warrant structure works:

  • Initial warrants: 100,000 options, tied to credit sales at a high price per ton of CO₂.
  • Additional warrants: 1,000,000, tied to more credit sales at slightly lower prices. 
  • Success-based warrants: 600,000, tied to further future sales if targets are met.

Verde’s Long Road to Carbon Market Leadership

Verde’s entry into carbon credits is not instant. In 2023, the company announced plans to enter the market. It highlighted the potential of its silicate rock for ERW to capture a lot of CO₂.

Based on its mineral reserves and processing capacity, Verde estimates it can produce up to 300,000 tonnes of carbon removal credits annually. This shows that carbon removal is a long-term strategic focus, not a side project.

To prepare, Verde explored partnerships that could strengthen its expertise in carbon markets. Verde teamed up early with WayCarbon, a well-known carbon project developer. They looked into how Verde’s minerals could help remove carbon and generate revenue.

WayCarbon guided Verde on project design, verification paths, and market demand. This helped Verde grasp what’s needed for high-quality, credible carbon credits.

These steps helped Verde gain experience in science, market trends, and regulations. This groundwork paved the way for bigger deals, like its current partnership with UNDO.

Studies in journals like Nature and PNAS back ERW’s effectiveness. They show that finely crushed silicate rock can capture CO₂ in months to years.

The carbon stays stored in mineral form for tens of thousands to millions of years. This validates Verde’s confidence in its mineral reserves as a tool for long-term climate mitigation.

ERW in Action: Impact on Emissions and Agriculture

This deal is part of a larger trend in the climate field: companies are looking for durable, scalable ways to remove CO₂. Enhanced Rock Weathering is one such method. When done right, it can store carbon for very long periods.

Brazil emits roughly 2.4 to 2.7 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent each year, depending on land-use trends. Agriculture accounts for about one-quarter of national emissions. Because ERW is deployed directly on farmland, it offers a pathway to reduce or offset part of this sector’s footprint while improving soil conditions.

Partnerships like this one help make carbon removal more real and credible. They mix scientific innovation (UNDO’s MRV systems) with physical capacity (Verde’s mineral operations). This could attract more buyers who want serious, long-term climate solutions.

However, scaling ERW also comes with challenges. Large-scale rock crushing and distribution can increase operational costs, and long-term monitoring requires specialized scientific methods.

Regulatory clarity for ERW credits is still developing in many markets, and some buyers remain cautious as they compare different carbon removal approaches. These factors may influence how quickly Verde and UNDO can expand their projects.

Blueprint for Scalable, Durable Carbon Removal

Verde AgriTech’s exclusive partnership with UNDO Carbon is a major step for both companies. Verde gains a new source of income. UNDO secures a reliable supply of mineral feedstock for its ERW work. Together, they hope to produce high-quality, durable carbon credits from Brazil.

If they succeed, they could remove hundreds of thousands of tonnes of CO₂ while building a scalable model for future carbon removal. Their partnership could become a blueprint for how mining and climate technology firms work together to fight climate change — not just in Brazil, but around the world.

U.S. Backs South Korea’s Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear-Powered Submarine Ambitions

Saptakee S
-
0
U.S. Backs South Korea’s Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear-Powered Submarine Ambitions

The United States’ decision to support South Korea’s uranium enrichment goals marks a major shift in the two countries’ long-standing nuclear partnership. This move not only strengthens their alliance but also boosts South Korea’s ambitions in clean energy, nuclear fuel cycle development, and naval defense.

With a strong nuclear power fleet already supplying one-third of its electricity, South Korea is now preparing for a new chapter in nuclear technology, strategy, and security.

south korea electricty from nuclear
Source: IEEFA

A Turning Point in US–ROK Nuclear Cooperation

The latest agreement signals Washington’s clearest endorsement yet of Seoul’s desire to take greater control of its nuclear fuel supply. South Korea operates 26 nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of about 26 gigawatts electric (GWe). These reactors are the backbone of the energy system, providing stable, low-carbon electricity year-round.

Now, with US backing, South Korea is set to advance in two sensitive areas it has long sought approval for:

Alongside these steps, the US has also supported South Korea’s plan to build nuclear-powered attack submarines, expanding cooperation into the defense sector.

This shift reflects a deeper level of trust in the alliance and positions South Korea for greater energy security and strategic capability.

Inside the Agreement: A Break from Past Restrictions

On November 13, 2025, the White House and South Korea’s Presidential Office released a joint fact sheet following a state visit by US President Donald Trump. The document reaffirmed the strengthened US–ROK alliance and outlined a series of shared economic and security commitments, including a $350 million strategic trade and investment deal.

However, the most significant announcement centered on nuclear cooperation. For decades, South Korea operated under tight restrictions through the 123 Agreement, a treaty that governs nuclear trade and technology sharing between the two nations. Originally signed in 1974, the agreement limited South Korea’s ability to enrich uranium or reprocess used fuel.

A revised deal signed in 2015 loosened some restrictions but still required US approval for progress on fuel cycle technologies. The new statement goes further than ever before. The US has officially endorsed the processes leading to South Korea’s enrichment and reprocessing capabilities, as long as they comply with US legal requirements.

This marks one of the biggest relaxations of US nuclear controls in decades.

South Korea’s Powerful Nuclear Fleet

South Korea has built one of the world’s most reliable, efficient, and advanced nuclear power systems. The country’s 26 operating reactors supply 32–34% of national electricity, making nuclear energy a major pillar in Korea’s clean energy transition.

The fleet includes:

  • APR-1400 reactors – Korea’s flagship advanced design
  • OPR-1000 reactors – earlier standardized units
  • Westinghouse PWRs – older imported models
  • CANDU reactors – heavy-water units that use natural uranium

Key nuclear power plants include Hanbit, Hanul, Kori, and Wolsong Nuclear Power Plant. These reactors operate with high load factors, often above 80%, showing strong performance and reliable output.

New Reactors and Next-Gen Technology on the Way

South Korea is expanding its nuclear fleet to meet rising energy demand and support its climate goals. The country currently has four reactors under construction, expected to add around 4 GWe when complete. These include:

  • Saeul units (APR-1400 design)
  • Shin Hanul units

Looking ahead, South Korea plans to add additional large reactors and deploy small modular reactors (SMRs) by 2038. SMRs offer lower cost, improved safety, and flexible use for industry and clean hydrogen production. These new technologies could bring Korea closer to energy independence and strengthen its export competitiveness in the global nuclear market.

south korea
Source: World Nuclear Association

SEE MORE:

Nuclear-Powered Submarines: Transforming Defense Capabilities

Another major part of the agreement is the US decision to support South Korea’s plan to build nuclear-powered attack submarines. Seoul has wanted this technology for many years because it offers clear military advantages. Nuclear submarines can stay underwater much longer, move faster, operate more quietly, and travel farther without stopping to refuel. As a result, they would greatly improve South Korea’s ability to protect its coastline and respond quickly to threats in the Indo-Pacific region.

The joint US–ROK fact sheet also stated that both countries will work together on the technical needs of these submarines. This includes fuel sourcing, design features, and reactor requirements. This cooperation supports South Korea’s broader defense modernization goals and helps the country move closer to taking full wartime operational control, or OPCON, from the United States. With this capability, South Korea strengthens not only its naval defense but also its overall strategic independence.

Regional Security Concerns: The North Korea Factor

These developments come at a time when North Korea is rapidly expanding its nuclear program. Experts estimate that Pyongyang now holds around 50 nuclear warheads and has enough fissile material to build many more. The country continues to operate active uranium enrichment sites and is speeding up its weapons production. Because of this, tensions in Northeast Asia have increased sharply.

South Korea’s nuclear advancements, however, remain focused on peaceful and defensive goals, and they operate under strict US oversight and global safeguards. Even so, these new capabilities send a strong deterrence message. They show that South Korea is ready to strengthen its technology, defense posture, and national security. In a region marked by rising uncertainty and military competition, Seoul’s progress reflects confidence, preparedness, and responsible leadership.

nuclear enegy south korea
Source: World Population Review

A Milestone for Northeast Asia’s Energy and Security Landscape

The US decision to support South Korea’s enrichment and reprocessing goals marks a major turning point in the alliance. South Korea already runs a powerful 26-GWe nuclear fleet that supplies a large share of its electricity. By gaining more control over the nuclear fuel cycle, the country can improve its energy security and boost its role as a global nuclear technology leader.

South korea energy mix

At the same time, the approval of nuclear-powered submarines strengthens South Korea’s defense capabilities at a moment when regional threats continue to rise. These combined steps create a stronger foundation for clean energy development, national security, and long-term cooperation between the United States and South Korea.

Together, they represent a major shift in Northeast Asia’s strategic landscape. They also show how civilian nuclear programs and national security interests are becoming increasingly connected in today’s geopolitical environment.

BASF and ExxonMobil Team Up to Boost Low-Emission Hydrogen with Methane Pyrolysis

Saptakee S
-
0
BASF and ExxonMobil Team Up to Boost Low-Emission Hydrogen with Methane Pyrolysis

BASF, the world’s largest chemical producer based in Ludwigshafen, Germany, has partnered with ExxonMobil to develop low-emission hydrogen using methane pyrolysis technology. This collaboration aims to accelerate the production of cost-effective, clean hydrogen for industrial use. The companies have signed a joint development agreement and plan to build a demonstration plant in Baytown, Texas, to test the technology at scale.

BASF has been researching methane pyrolysis for several years with funding from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research, Technology, and Space (BMFTR). By teaming up with ExxonMobil, the companies hope to combine expertise and bring this promising hydrogen solution closer to commercial reality.

BASF methane pyrolysis test facility at Ludwigshafen site

exxonmobil basf
Source: Exxon

Methane Pyrolysis: Fueling a Low-Carbon Future

Methane pyrolysis is a process that splits methane—a major component of natural gas—into hydrogen and solid carbon using electricity. Unlike traditional hydrogen production methods, such as steam-methane reforming (SMR), methane pyrolysis does not produce CO2 during the reaction.

The process uses about five times less energy than water electrolysis and doesn’t require water, making it more efficient in many situations. Methane pyrolysis also benefits from existing natural gas infrastructure, so it can be deployed in multiple locations without major modifications.

Product costs and CO2 footprint of different hydrogen production technologies

methane pyrolysis carbon emissions
Source: Royal Society of Chemistry https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2025/ee/d4ee06191h

Key Benefits and Challenges 

Methane pyrolysis can play an important role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Hydrogen demand is expected to grow across industries, from chemicals and steel to transportation and energy storage. By producing hydrogen without direct CO2 emissions, methane pyrolysis can help industries meet decarbonization targets.

Hydrogen is a critical energy carrier and feedstock for the chemical industry. Solid carbon, the byproduct of methane pyrolysis, is also valuable. It can be used in steel and aluminum production, construction materials, and advanced carbon products like battery components.

Key advantages of methane pyrolysis include:

  • No direct CO2 emissions during hydrogen production.

  • High-purity solid carbon that can be stored or used commercially.

  • Lower energy demand compared to electrolysis.

  • Compatibility with existing natural gas systems makes deployment easier.

However, the technology isn’t completely emissions-free. Upstream methane leaks—from extraction, processing, or transportation—can significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions. Methane has a global warming potential many times higher than CO2, so minimizing leaks is critical for keeping emissions low.

Thus, the process requires careful management of upstream methane leaks to ensure true low emissions. Also, methane supply chains must be monitored and controlled. Additionally, energy inputs must be optimized to maximize efficiency and minimize lifecycle CO2 emissions.

If successfully deployed, this technology could complement renewable-based hydrogen solutions and provide a scalable, industrial-ready pathway to cleaner hydrogen production. The Baytown demonstration plant will provide critical insights into operational efficiency, emissions management, and the commercial viability of methane pyrolysis.

Methane Pyrolysis vs. Other Hydrogen Methods

Energy Efficiency: Methane pyrolysis requires about 37.5 kJ of energy per mole of hydrogen, compared to 63.4 kJ for SMR and 285.8 kJ for water electrolysis. This shows methane pyrolysis is highly energy-efficient.

Lifecycle Emissions: Studies estimate methane pyrolysis produces 9–12 tons of CO2 equivalent per ton of hydrogen, depending on methane management and energy sources. SMR with carbon capture (CCS) has slightly higher emissions, while electrolysis emissions depend entirely on the electricity source. If powered by renewable electricity, electrolysis can achieve near-zero CO2 emissions, but grid electricity with fossil fuels increases emissions.

Full Lifecycle Benefits: Methane pyrolysis may also avoid some emissions linked to manufacturing and resource use for electrolyzers. Its efficiency and carbon byproduct make it a competitive low-carbon solution.

In summary, methane pyrolysis offers a balance between low emissions, energy efficiency, and economic feasibility. It competes well with SMR + CCS and is generally less energy-intensive than full electrolysis, though renewable-powered electrolysis has the lowest emissions if electricity is green.

BASF and Exxon’s Demonstration Plant to Validate Technology

BASF and ExxonMobil plan to build a demonstration plant at ExxonMobil’s Baytown Complex. This facility will produce up to 2,000 tons of low-carbon hydrogen and 6,000 tons of solid carbon annually. The project will validate the technology at scale and prepare it for commercial deployment.

This plant represents a key step toward making methane pyrolysis a practical solution for industrial hydrogen demand. By combining BASF’s chemical expertise with ExxonMobil’s experience in energy infrastructure, the companies aim to accelerate the global adoption of low-emission hydrogen.

A Strategic Leap for Clean Hydrogen Innovation

Moreover, ExxonMobil brings additional strengths to the partnership. The company owns the largest CO2 pipeline network in the U.S. and has extensive experience in fuels, chemicals, and low-carbon solutions. Combining this with BASF’s innovation in chemical processes makes the collaboration a powerful step forward for sustainable hydrogen production.

Overall, this partnership represents a major step in advancing low-emission hydrogen.

IEA predicts that low-emissions hydrogen production is set to grow significantly by 2030. Projects that are already operational or have reached final investment decisions (FID) are expected to produce 4.2 million tons per year (Mtpa) by 2030. It’s a fivefold increase compared with 2024.

IEA Green hydrogen
Source; IEA

Although this is still below the ambitious targets set by governments and industry earlier in the decade, it would raise the share of low-emissions hydrogen from less than 1% today to around 4% of total hydrogen production by 2030.

This growth is similar to the rapid expansion seen in other clean energy technologies, such as solar PV. In addition, a new assessment of announced projects suggests that another 6 million tons of low-emissions hydrogen could become operational by 2030, provided effective policies are in place to support demand and secure offtake agreements.

As industrial hydrogen demand rises and decarbonization becomes urgent, methane pyrolysis is set to play a key role in the energy transition. By combining their expertise, BASF and ExxonMobil are positioning themselves at the forefront of low-emission hydrogen innovation.

COP30 Moves Into a More Ambitious Phase: Key Updates to Know

Jennifer L
-
0
COP30 Moves Into a More Ambitious Phase: Key Updates to Know

COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, has shifted into higher gear. Ministers are now at the negotiation table. The talks are shifting from technical discussions to tough political bargaining.

The COP30 presidency has released a new summary document outlining 21 different options for resolving some of the most contentious issues. This is signaling a push for real progress.

A Menu of Options from the Presidency

At the heart of the summit is a 5-page note from COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago. This document does more than guide discussions: it frames possible outcomes by laying out 21 options across four major areas.

These major issue-areas include:

  • Strengthening national climate plans: whether countries should be urged to do more on their new emissions-reduction pledges.
  • Climate finance: especially the allocation of a $300 billion aid target from richer to poorer countries. Current climate finance flows are far too low. About $500 billion is available each year, but the world needs $1.3 trillion by 2030–2035. Rich countries made a promise: to give $100 billion a year by 2020. But they didn’t meet this goal.
  • Trade and climate: how to deal with trade barriers and climate-related trade disputes. Climate-related tariffs and disputes are rising. This shows that COP30 needs to tackle trade measures in a more organized way.
  • Transparency and reporting: improving how countries report their emissions and climate progress.

global climate finance vs COP30 target

The presidency says these options are not fixed decisions. Instead, they reflect different pathways that countries can endorse or reject. This structure is meant to give negotiators flexibility while still working toward a coherent package.

Some options call for a new three-year climate finance program. Others suggest simpler steps, like reaffirming current commitments.

One idea for trade is to host roundtables about how climate policies impact cross-border trade. Another is to create a formal platform to discuss climate-related trade measures under the UNFCCC.

  • The presidency also emphasizes core themes: multilateralism, putting people at the center, and moving from negotiation to implementation.

COP30 metrics show the size of these talks. Nearly 200 countries and many observer groups are represented.

Analysts say the document suggests a bolder COP30 outcome that could lead to roadmaps for phasing out fossil fuels. Also, it may establish a clearer link between climate finance and accountability.

Summary Note on COP30 Presidency consultations

Host Brazil Urges Action, Not Just Words

Brazil, as host, is pressing hard for concrete results. It has sent a strong message through a letter and its draft text, urging parties to negotiate in good faith and aim for real deliverables. And so negotiations extended into the nights to finalize the talks. 

President Lula da Silva and COP President do Lago both emphasize that talks must lead to a practical roadmap, not vague promises. They argue that to meet the challenges ahead, especially on fossil fuels and finance, countries must chart out “who does what, when, and how.”

In particular, Brazil is pushing for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. It sees this as both an ethical and strategic move: phasing out fossil fuels in a just way, while respecting development needs.

  • Global fossil fuel subsidies are about $500 billion each year.

Reform efforts are now closely tied to COP talks. This adds urgency to Brazil’s proposals.

Money Talks: Climate Finance Stalls Negotiations

Even though the presidency’s proposal is broad, finance continues to act as a major roadblock. Developing countries say rich nations still haven’t met their climate aid promises. This includes a goal of $300 billion each year by 2035. The shortfall compared to the estimated needs of $1.3 trillion annually illustrates the scale of the finance gap.

300 billion climate finance goal

These financial disputes have even prompted critics to warn that the absence of real funding could undermine the entire summit. Some say that until money flows, other issues — like emissions or transparency — may remain stalled.

South Korea’s Big Coal Shift

Meanwhile, a significant moment came when South Korea announced it would phase out many of its coal-fired power plants by 2040. The country joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Under the plan, 40 out of its 61 coal plants are set to retire by 2040. The remaining 21 will be evaluated for closure later, based on economic and environmental factors.

South Korea aims to have 45% of its electricity supplied by renewables by 2040, supplemented by nuclear and gas. This commitment signals a major step toward a cleaner energy mix and the creation of green jobs.

south korea energy mix

But the pledge also raises geopolitical stakes. South Korea has long been a major coal importer. Its decision could ripple through global coal markets, especially affecting exporting countries.

The country accounts for about 1.5% of global emissions. This shows that its policies, though smaller than those of China or the U.S., still hold significant regional influence.

China Steps Up as the United States Steps Back

Complicating dynamics at COP30 is the notable absence of the United States. As such, China has stepped up its diplomatic efforts. With no top U.S. officials around, it is pushing for stronger cooperation among many countries.

Beijing’s delegation sees itself as a stabilizing force. They push for climate finance, technology cooperation, and working together on the Paris Agreement. China accounts for around 31% of global emissions, making its position critical for the overall climate outcome.

Before the summit, China updated its climate goals. It plans to cut emissions by 7–10% from peak levels and increase non-fossil energy use to 30% of total energy consumption by 2035.

Analysts note that, even with these plans, long-term goals and accountability are still necessary to keep warming within 1.5°C.

Share of Global Emissions by Country (2023)

What’s at Stake: A Turning Point for COP30

As COP30 presses on, what happens in the next few days could define its legacy. Here are the key things to watch out for as the summit takes its second week run:

  • The presidency’s “menu” of options gives countries flexibility, but risks producing watered-down outcomes.
  • Finance remains the most difficult divide. Without real funding, many fear COP30 could fall short.
  • Brazil is pushing for a fossil-fuel roadmap anchored in fairness — but that depends on buy-in from major emitters.
  • South Korea’s coal commitment could reshape export markets and send a signal to other coal-dependent nations.
  • China’s rising role highlights how power dynamics are shifting, especially in the U.S.’s absence.
  • Trade and climate measures, including tariffs and disputes, remain an area where COP30 could produce tangible frameworks to avoid future conflicts.

In short, COP30 may not just be another negotiation; it could be a turning point. Whether countries seize the moment to deliver real change will determine if this climate conference becomes a source of momentum or just another talking summit.

Carbon Credit Prices Hit New 2025 Highs: 7 Safe Platforms Every Buyer Should Know

Aiden Green
-
0
Carbon Credit Prices Hit New 2025 Highs: 7 Safe Platforms Every Buyer Should Know

Carbon credit prices jumped to new 2025 highs this week, sparking intense market activity and a wave of interest from companies and investors racing toward net-zero goals. Fresh data from MSCI showed that high-rated credits traded at more than 300% above lower-rated ones in May.

Meanwhile, the MSCI Global ARR Index—which tracks afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation projects—climbed to a record $21.3 per ton in June. These trends reveal a clear shift: buyers now want transparent, verified, and high-impact credits.

As competition heats up, major players and new platforms are doubling down on quality. Because of this, buyers must choose trusted exchanges that offer verified, high-integrity carbon credits. Below, we break down why prices are rising, what trends are driving demand, and where buyers can find reliable credits in today’s fast-changing market.

MSCI carbon credit prices
Data as of June 2025. Source: MSCI Carbon Credit Price Indexes

Why Carbon Credit Prices Are Climbing in 2025

The 2025 carbon market looks very different from previous years. More than 95 million credits were retired in the first half of the year alone, according to Sylvera. This was the highest six-month total ever recorded. The surge reflects stronger climate action from governments and companies facing stricter rules.

Prices show the same direction. Carbon credits today cost 1.9 times more than in 2018. Demand for high-quality offsets hit new highs, while the supply of credible, recent credits remains tight.

carbon credits retirements

Premium Credits and Removals Capture Big Margins

High-rated credits led the price jump. In 2025, “investment-grade” credits—rated BBB or higher—averaged $14.80 per ton. Lower-rated credits averaged just $3.50. Buyers also paid more for newer credits. According to Ecosystem Marketplace, premiums for credits issued in the past five years reached 217%, up from 53% in 2023.

Carbon removal credits, such as reforestation or direct air capture, gained even more momentum. These credits now trade at a massive 381% premium over traditional reduction credits.

Although prices still vary—sometimes by 11% between credits from the same project—buyers show rising confidence. New standards, such as the ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles and updated regulations, are making integrity a priority.

carbon credit market
Data as of June 2025. Source: MSCI Carbon Credit Price Indexes

Why High-Quality Carbon Credits Are in Such High Demand

Demand for trustworthy credits keeps rising due to tighter rules, corporate pressure, and growing public scrutiny. Programs like CORSIA, the global aviation offsetting system, now require stricter eligibility. In the first half of 2025, more than one-third of all new credits issued were potentially eligible for CORSIA Phase 1, depending on Article 6 approvals.

The Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) also pushed companies to use only high-integrity carbon removals for net-zero claims. As a result, businesses are moving away from cheap, low-quality credits. Instead, they are paying more for offsets that deliver proven climate and community benefits.

Technology-based removal credits—such as direct air capture—saw some of the highest prices in the market, often above $1,000 per ton. Nature-based credits remained important but typically traded between $7 and $24 per ton. This widening gap shows how buyers value durability and innovation.

The Top 7 Platforms to Buy Verified Carbon Credits in 2025

Because transparency matters more than ever, selecting the right exchange is essential. Here are seven reliable platforms offering verified carbon credits in 2025:

carbon credit companies

All these platforms work with leading standards bodies like Verra, Gold Standard, and the American Carbon Registry to ensure strong credibility.

How New Standards and Market Forces Are Reshaping 2025 Prices

Integrity-focused reforms, new technologies, and shifting buyer behavior continue to reshape the carbon market. According to the World Bank, new standards have led to fresh price swings—especially for high-quality nature-based credits. Issuances hit record highs, too.

  • Sylvera reported that 77 million credits were issued in Q2 2025, up 39% from Q1 and 14% from Q2 2024. Yet retirements grew even faster, keeping pressure on supply.
carbon credit prices
Source: Sylvera

Old vintage credits are quickly falling out of favor. Companies now want recent, high-quality offsets that meet new regulatory and investor expectations. As a result, BBB-rated credits and other premium assets are setting the tone for market pricing.

Some older credits still trade below $1 per ton, but high-integrity projects now define the market’s direction and future values.

What the Latest Data Says About Growth and the Road Ahead

The numbers reveal a market growing fast and evolving even faster. BloombergNEF’s High Quality scenario shows potential supply rising from 243 million tons in 2024 to 2.6 billion tons by 2030, and possibly 4.8 billion tons by 2050. Even with rising supply, prices are expected to climb.

  • BNEF forecasts an average of $60 per ton by 2030, increasing to $104 per ton by 2050 as demand for removals outpaces reduction credits.

Notably, Direct air capture will play a major role. By 2050, BNEF expects it to supply 21% of all carbon credits, helping push average prices above $100.

Market structure is also shifting. Bilateral (over-the-counter) deals have exploded—growing 27-fold since 2022—as buyers want tailored, audited solutions. Compliance markets, like those in Singapore and California, continue to raise prices through strong tax and allowance policies.

carbon credits supply
Data source: Bloomberg

The Bottom Line for 2025 and Beyond

The carbon market is moving toward a future defined by quality, transparency, and impact. Demand is rising fast, regulations are tightening, and buyers are paying more for verified, high-integrity credits.

In this new environment, the best opportunities will favor informed buyers—those who act early, choose reputable platforms, and prioritize integrity over volume. The road to net zero increasingly depends on credible, premium carbon credits that deliver real climate results.

What the IEA’s New Scenarios Mean for the Global Climate — and for COP30

Saptakee S
-
0
What the IEA’s New Scenarios Mean for the Global Climate — and for COP30

The energy world is changing fast, yet not fast enough to protect the planet from dangerous warming. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025, released at the start of COP30 in Brazil, lays out three futures for global emissions. These scenarios show how close — or far — the world is from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The findings are sobering, but they also give countries clear signals on where action must accelerate.

The IEA makes one point very clear: 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded, and for the first time, global temperatures stayed above 1.5°C across the entire year. The last decade was also the hottest in history. This puts huge pressure on countries as they update their national climate plans at COP30.

Yet the IEA also stresses something important — none of its scenarios are forecasts. They are pathways, and the direction we take still depends on policy choices made today.

A World on a Hotter Track: What the IEA’s Scenarios Show

The IEA’s three major scenarios outline different ways the global energy system could evolve. Two reflect today’s conditions. The third shows what it would take actually to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Global energy demand
Source: IEA

Current Policies Scenario (CPS): The Dangerous Path

This scenario assumes governments stop at policies already written into law. No new climate pledges. No new incentives. No strengthened targets.

Under this path:

  • Coal use falls only slightly.
  • Oil and gas demand have been rising for decades.
  • Global energy-related emissions stay close to 2024 levels all the way to 2050.

The result is alarming. Global warming will hit 2°C by around 2050 and reach 2.9°C by 2100, and temperatures will still be rising. The IEA even warns there is a 5% chance of hitting 4°C, a level associated with extreme climate disruptions and irreversible tipping points.

The CPS was removed after 2020 because it seemed unrealistic in a world trying to cut emissions. But political pressure, especially from the Trump administration, pushed the IEA to bring it back. Its return shows how vulnerable global climate ambition can be when big economies shift direction.

Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Better, but Still Off-Track

This scenario reflects what governments say they plan to do — but not what they have legally locked in.

Here:

  • Emissions peak within a few years.
  • They fall slightly to 35.2 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2035.
  • Advanced economies and China reduce emissions.
  • But developing economies emit more as energy demand rises.

Even with these changes, the STEPS pathway still results in 2.5°C of warming by 2100. This is far above the Paris goal of “well below 2°C” and nowhere near keeping warming under 1.5°C. The IEA notes that this year’s STEPS outcome is worse than last year’s due to slower clean energy progress and higher expected coal use.

Net Zero by 2050 Scenario (NZE): The Only Path that Stabilizes the Climate

Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, often called the NZE, shows what a 1.5°C-aligned future would require. It is the only pathway that eventually brings warming back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.

But the challenge has grown sharply. Because real-world emissions remain high, the NZE scenario now includes:

  • a higher and longer overshoot of the 1.5°C limit
  • warming peaks around 65°C mid-century and slowly declines

Large-Scale Carbon Removal Technologies: The Saviour

The only way to return below that threshold later this century is to combine deep emissions cuts with large-scale carbon removal technologies. These technologies remain expensive and unproven at the scale required.

So the IEA emphasizes that countries must do everything possible to limit the overshoot by cutting emissions faster now. Notably, in the NZE pathway, global emissions fall by more than half by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050.

By the end of the century, carbon removal technologies would need to eliminate nearly four gigatonnes of CO₂ each year to bring temperatures back down.

A Fossil Peak Nears as Clean Energy Surges — but the World Still Falls Short

The IEA shows the energy system shifting, with coal already at or near its peak and oil expected to peak around 2030, though its decline will be slower than once expected. Gas demand levels off around 2035, but at a higher baseline than earlier forecasts, revealing how deeply rooted fossil fuels remain in the global mix.

fossil fuel demand
Source: IEA

At the same time, clean energy is rising fast. Solar capacity could more than triple by 2035, wind is set to nearly triple, and nuclear expands by close to 40 percent. Renewables will even overtake oil as the largest energy source by the early 2040s. Yet the world is still not moving fast enough. Under stated policies, renewable capacity reaches about 13,700 gigawatts by 2035, far short of the roughly 19,600 gigawatts required under the net-zero pathway.

Renewable energy
Source: IEA

Global Carbon Emissions: Peaks and Plateaus

Both IEA scenarios point to sustained high emissions, though at different levels. In the CPS, global energy emissions stay near 2024 levels through 2050, as small coal reductions are offset by rising oil and gas use. In the STEPS, emissions peak soon, drop to 35.2 gigatonnes by 2035, and decline slowly to 2050.

Reductions in advanced economies and China are balanced by rising emissions in developing regions. The gap between CPS and STEPS comes mainly from higher coal emissions, slower industrial efficiency, and delayed adoption of electric and efficient vehicles.

All in all, this gap underscores the need to accelerate clean energy deployment to align with global climate goals.

carbon emissions IEA
Source: IEA

Why COP30 Matters More Than Ever

With the world heating faster than expected and the 1.5°C threshold already breached annually, COP30 becomes a turning point. The IEA’s outlook directly shapes negotiations because it:

  • Shows the world is far off-track.
  • Highlights the widening gap between political promises and real action.
  • Makes clear that overshoot is now unavoidable.
  • Warns that delay will force much heavier reliance on expensive CO₂ removals later.

At COP30, countries need to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The IEA warns that current NDCs do not reflect the full potential of national policies or domestic clean energy momentum. In other words, many countries are doing more at home than they are willing to commit to on paper.

COP30 is a chance to fix this gap.

What Can Be Done to Get on Track? The IEA’s Priority Actions

The message is clear: the world is not on track, and the window to avoid the worst climate impacts is shrinking. Still, the IEA shows that meaningful progress is underway.

It highlights several actions that could quickly bring global emissions closer to the NZE path. The world needs faster renewable energy deployment, stronger energy efficiency improvements, and large reductions in methane emissions from the energy sector.

Electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry has to accelerate, and sustainable fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen must expand significantly. These steps are well understood, often cost-effective, and achievable with current technology. What remains missing is the political will to scale them up at the speed required.

With COP30, countries certainly have an opportunity to match ambition with action and take decisive steps toward a safer climate future.

Three Streams, One Goal: DECARBON 2026 Unites the Oil and Gas Value Chain

Alex
-
0
Three Streams, One Goal: DECARBON 2026 Unites the Oil and Gas Value Chain

At DECARBON 2026, leading companies come together to turn ambition into action — demonstrating the innovations and finding collaborations to drive the transition to a low-carbon future.

The oil and gas industry operates through highly complex systems in which upstream, midstream and downstream segments often follow distinct strategies and priorities. Upstream focuses on exploration and production efficiency, midstream prioritises secure and reliable supply routes, while downstream aims to enhance refining performance and reduce environmental impact. Aligning these three sectors towards a single goal — decarbonisation — remains one of the greatest challenges. Reducing emissions across exploration, transportation and refining requires technological innovation as well as cross-sector collaboration and consistent strategic alignment.

For these goals, the Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Congress (DECARBON) 2026 unites global industry leaders from the whole value chain to exchange practical insights and proven approaches that deliver measurable results. Throughout the Congress, companies across upstream, midstream and downstream share their experiences and innovations from P2X technologies and green hydrogen to AI-powered autonomous plants.

In the upstream-focused session, Kuwait Oil Company offers valuable perspectives on integrating energy transition strategies into exploration and production planning. Fayez Al-Mezel, Business Planning Specialist, delivers the presentation about the integration of energy transition into upstream strategies. He addresses key challenges such as capital-cost dispersion, technology readiness and infrastructure constraints. The speaker outlines mitigation measures, including modular pilot projects, standardised designs and verified data management. This approach demonstrates how strategic planning and transparent performance tracking translate decarbonisation ambitions into efficient, cost-competitive outcomes.

In the midstream discussion, LiveEO (Session Sponsor) highlights digital tools that enhance pipeline safety and sustainability. Nick Ferguson, Chief Evangelist, explains that satellite technology elevates pipeline safety. Drawing on a case study, he demonstrates that combining high-resolution satellite imagery with artificial intelligence enables the detection of 73% of previously unidentified threats and improves prediction accuracy by 80%, supporting proactive risk management and streamlined operations.

Kent participates in the dialogue dedicated to downstream decarbonisation, specifically low-carbon fuels and feedstock. Luigi Crolla, Head of Energy Transition Technologies, explores how integrating electrolytic hydrogen and Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS) technologies into waste-to-fuel processes enhances Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) yield and reduces carbon intensity. While Kent operates across multiple energy transition domains, its contribution highlights the importance of technological integration in scaling sustainable fuel production.

By bringing together diverse organisations working across and beyond traditional sector boundaries, DECARBON 2026 creates a unified platform for forward-looking conversation. The Congress underscores that decarbonisation is not the responsibility of one stream alone but a coordinated transformation across the entire oil and gas value chain — from production to refining. Explore the full programme and speaker line-up at: https://sh.bgs.group/3hn

1...313233...260Page 32 of 260