Will Trump’s Re-Election Threaten Global Climate Progress Ahead of COP29 Talks?

Jennifer L
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Will Trump’s Re-Election Threaten Global Climate Progress Ahead of COP29 Talks?

Donald Trump’s recent election win has cast doubt over global climate efforts, with his victory sending ripples through the international community just a few days before the COP29 climate talks in Baku. Trump, who previously pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, has hinted at doing the same again. This is especially true given his pro-oil and gas stance in climate policy. 

His victory speech highlighted America’s vast reserves of “liquid gold,” emphasizing the country’s oil and gas resources over renewable energy alternatives. This move has caused climate activists to be concerned about how the world’s largest economy will respond to the climate crisis.

America’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” Resurgence with Trump’s Victory

Donald Trump’s victory signals a shift in U.S. climate policy, as he aims to undo numerous environmental actions implemented under Biden. In Dan Eberhart words, CEO of Canary LLC, Trump as the new president means: 

“You are looking at, overall, a ‘drill baby drill’ philosophy.” 

Bloomberg reported that Trump’s plans include reversing EV subsidies, limiting EPA pollution rules, and boosting fossil fuel production. Moreover, Trump could challenge Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act by modifying tax credits for clean energy, potentially making them harder to access or more favorable to fossil fuels. 

Internationally, Trump may withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and the upcoming UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). This would also mean sidelining the nation from climate negotiations while encouraging other countries to weaken their own emission goals. 

Meanwhile, some U.S. states and local governments are preparing alternative strategies to uphold climate progress, including discussions with Chinese officials to maintain subnational climate cooperation. Climate activists and leaders are also strategizing around Trump’s presidency to mitigate potential setbacks to climate action globally.

Will the EU Rise to the Challenge and Take Charge?

Many are now eyeing the European Union (EU) to fill the leadership void with the U.S. potentially stepping back. Climate Action Network Europe’s director, Chiara Martinelli, stressed the EU’s moral responsibility to address climate issues head-on. 

She also pointed out that the EU must support climate action in vulnerable regions, especially in the Global South. Countries in this region suffer the most from climate impacts despite contributing the least to the crisis.

  • COP29 is expected to focus heavily on establishing a new financial framework to assist poorer nations with their climate adaptation and transition efforts. 

COP29 Baku Azerbaijan

Laurence Tubiana, a former French climate diplomat who played a key role in the 2015 Paris Agreement, said the situation is reminiscent of Trump’s first withdrawal. However, she noted that today’s landscape is more favorable for renewable energy and environmental policy. This could help keep the momentum going, even without full U.S. involvement.

With Trump’s victory, the EU faces a renewed call to step up as the world’s climate leader. Patrick ten Brink, head of the European Environmental Bureau, noted that Trump’s administration has a record of environmental rollbacks, from weakening protections to supporting fossil fuels. With this, Brink remarked that: 

“With Donald Trump’s re-election, the EU must recognize the urgency of stepping up and scaling up as the global leader in climate and environmental policy.”

To solidify its stance, the EU must maintain a visible presence at COP29 to ensure that it actively participates and leads in policy discussions. Brink emphasized that Europe should also bolster its efforts to move forward with climate initiatives like Fit-for-55 and the European Green Deal. They aim to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

How Does Trump’s Climate Stance Could Impact COP29?

In light of Trump’s apparent opposition to climate action, there are fears that other countries might also avoid commitments if they see the U.S. walking away from the Paris Agreement again. Already, there are reports that leaders from major emitters will not attend COP29, while some may not attend.

Europe’s lawmakers hope the U.S. stance will not derail global climate ambitions. Trump’s influence might inspire some hesitation, but the global shift toward green technology and renewables provides an economic and environmental incentive that is difficult to ignore. 

Adding to these concerns, the recent announcement that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not attend COP29 has sparked debates about EU leadership. French President Emmanuel Macron is also notably absent from the attendee list. 

Nonetheless, the EU Parliament plans to send a delegation, including Dutch lawmaker Mohammed Chahim. He commented on the “troubling signals” from the U.S. but encouraged climate policy advocates not to lose hope.

Chahim pointed out that the U.S. is not monolithic in its climate stance. Despite Trump’s previous exit from the Paris Agreement, American cities, states, and non-governmental organizations continued to engage in climate diplomacy. With green technologies now more affordable and financial incentives linked to emissions reductions, the U.S. may find it challenging to resist the green agenda, Chahim noted. 

With COP29 just around the corner, there’s renewed urgency for the participating nations to act decisively. The conference will attempt to strengthen financial commitments and establish a new goal to support the global south. 

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. involvement, COP29 organizers hope to secure meaningful agreements, with or without the backing of the world’s largest economy.

ENGIE Powers Up Meta: New 260 MW Solar Deal Fuels Net-Zero Goals

Saptakee S
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0
ENGIE Powers Up Meta: New 260 MW Solar Deal Fuels Net-Zero Goals

On October 31, ENGIE North America (ENGIE) announced signing a deal to supply 260 MW of renewable energy to Meta from its Sypert Branch solar project in Milam County Texas.

Dave Carroll, Chief Renewables Officer and SVP of ENGIE North America remarked on the announcement,

“We are delighted to announce this agreement to work with Meta by providing renewable power that supports their growth and aligns with their net zero commitments. We are proud that ENGIE’s proven track record in developing, building and operating renewable assets puts us at the forefront of the energy transition and this agreement with Meta recognizes the importance of that track record to our customers.”

Unlocking the Meta-ENGIE Solar Deal

The deal was facilitated through Meta’s Environmental Attributes Purchase Agreement (EAPA) with ENGIE to secure renewable energy from the Sypert Branch solar project in Milam County, Texas. The project is located 70 miles northeast of Austin and just 10 miles from Meta’s Temple data center.

Meta will purchase 100% of the output from the 260 MW facility through this deal. The solar power will help meet its growing energy demands and support its ambitious net-zero goals. Notably, this agreement expands Meta’s renewable energy portfolio to over 12 GW worldwide.

Urvi Parekh, Head of Clean Energy at Meta said,

“We are delighted to be collaborating with ENGIE to make the clean energy transition a reality through projects like Sypert Branch. Since 2020, we have maintained net zero emissions in our global operations – these efforts are supported by relationships such as those with ENGIE who can consistently deliver and operate projects like Sypert Branch to help meet our energy needs.”

Meta’s Path to Net Zero: Leading with Renewable Energy

Meta achieved net zero emissions across its global operations in 2020.

Remarkably, the social media giant slashed emissions by 94% from a 2017 baseline. They achieved this by backing their data centers and offices with 100% renewable energy. Since 2018, these renewable energy efforts have mitigated Meta’s greenhouse gas emissions by over 12.3 million metric tons of CO₂e.

META

Source: Meta

100% Renewable Energy

Meta’s commitment to renewable energy is evident as it has partnered with the top utilities in the U.S. to integrate renewable energy into their systems. The goal is to benefit the company and its customers.

The tech giant has a portfolio of over 10,000 megawatts (MW) of contracted renewable energy projects. This makes Meta one of the largest corporate buyers of renewable energy worldwide. 

Earlier CarbonCredits reported:

  • In the U.S., Meta boasts the largest operating portfolio, with more than 5,500 MW of renewable energy capacity currently online. Meta’s renewable energy projects represent an estimated $14.2 billion in capital investment for new infrastructure. 

Meta’s sustainability report further explains that it carefully selects projects on local grids near its data centers to help communities transition to clean energy. For centers in states like Virginia, Oregon, and New Mexico, Meta partners with utilities to establish “green tariffs.” This helps achieve 100% renewable energy within each utility’s territory.

Sypert Branch Solar Project: Boosting Economic and Community Growth

ENGIE developed the Sypert Branch solar project and will also construct and operate it by the end of 2025. The press release also highlighted that this deal brings ENGIE closer to its goal of nearly 1 GW in signed corporate PPAs in the U.S. in 2024 alone.

As a leading global renewable energy provider, ENGIE is widely recognized for its success in selling corporate energy PPAs. Overall, this project will add to Engie’s impressive renewable portfolio of 8 GW across North America, including solar, wind, and battery storage.

Furthermore, the Sypert Branch project is expected to transform the Milam County economy. The construction process itself can imbibe more than 300 workers and generate $69 million in tax revenue throughout the project timeline. ENGIE also noted that a significant part of this revenue will go toward developing schools in the district to support the local community.

Nickel Could Be the Key to U.S. Energy Independence: Alaska Energy Metals’ Strategic Role

Saptakee S
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0
Nickel Could Be the Key to U.S. Energy Independence: Alaska Energy Metals’ Strategic Role

With the U.S. aiming for energy independence Alaska’s mineral-rich deposits could play a crucial role in reducing reliance on imports. In this rise-in-demand scenario, Canadian mining company Alaska Energy Metals (AEM) sees a solution to explore Alaska’s underground deposits of nickel.

Greg Beischer, President, CEO, and Director of AEM, expressed optimism, saying,

 “We should be working harder to increase our domestic resources and secure a domestic supply chain.”

Let’s deep dive into the progress the company is making under Mr. Beischer’s determined leadership and the ambitious plans it has to boost the U.S. nickel supply.

Why Nickel and Other Critical Minerals Are Essential

The U.S. Department of Energy has identified 18 minerals as critical to energy technology and nickel is one of them having paramount importance.

While nickel’s commercial use spans stainless steel production and jet and turbine components, its growing role in EV batteries has elevated its demand. This makes nickel one of the most sought-after materials in the clean energy transition.

Despite its importance, the United States currently lacks a domestic source for nickel production, which represents a significant vulnerability in the supply chain. Thus, establishing domestic nickel production could boost supply chain resilience and support the nation’s transition to a more sustainable economy.

Nickel CarbonCredits

AEM’s Endeavor: Building a Sustainable Nickel Supply Chain

AEM’s flagship endeavor, the Nikolai deposit, is a sprawling 23,000-acre site in Alaska’s southern foothills. This deposit holds not only nickel but also copper, cobalt, platinum, and palladium—all minerals deemed critical by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Mr. Beischer emphasized that Nikolai’s deposits containing multiple metals are essential for boosting the domestic supply chain.

AEM nikolai
Source: AEM

New Resource Estimates and Project Progress

Since AEM began exploring the Nikolai deposit, their findings have surpassed initial expectations. Mr. Beischer noted,

“As a result of the drilling we did in summer 2023, along with the historical information for the project that we had purchased, we were able to calculate a mineral resource estimate that was really quite substantial—in fact, bigger than we had really imagined would be possible.”

  • The company’s revised estimates indicate a resource size of 3.9 billion pounds in indicated nickel and 4.2 billion pounds in inferred resources.

These findings mark a significant increase from AEM’s initial projections of around 3 billion pounds.

However, he clarified that the revised estimate does not guarantee the full recovery of these metals. Initial testing has begun, but results show that only about 50 to 55 percent of the metal may actually be recovered.

The company revealed that the 2024 drilling season, which began in July, and covered approximately 4,000 meters is consistent with last year’s scope. However, recent market conditions for nickel held back the project’s expansion.

Mr. Beischer highlighted,

“The flooding of nickel into the market from Indonesia and Chinese-backed operations has depressed nickel prices.”

So, we can see that this supply surge from China and Indonesia has directly impacted nickel prices which in turn affected AEM’s share value and limited the financing options.

He further explained that as a consequence the company has been unable to expand its drilling program as initially anticipated. However, the project is progressing steadily despite the challenges.

The nickel miner remains committed to its goals, gathering data for essential baseline environmental studies. Most significantly, the company is optimistic about achieving the key project milestones. Additionally, it aims to complete a preliminary economic assessment by the end of 2025 and is also considering a pre-feasibility study if all goes in favor.

Securing Funds for Faster Growth

The Nikolai project is crucial for AEM and has immense nickel potential in the future. This is why the company is exploring funding opportunities which also includes applying for a Department of Defense (DOD) grant that could help expedite planning and exploration.

As the project is still in its early development, it aspires to build external partnerships and engage major investors. Mr. Beischer further explained,

“There are no local big investors or any notable company or major funder. It’s a little early. Typically, you’re going to want to see a bit more advancement, like you’ve done at least a preliminary economic assessment before they’d be putting in bigger dollars. Ultimately, we want a strategic partner that can help with the heavier financial interest but also bring expertise that we might not have in-house.”

Mr. Beischer strongly believes that it makes much sense to have the Nikolai Project located on U.S. soil, where the environmental standards are among the highest in the world.

Last but not least, his commitment goes beyond mineral extraction. From a broader perspective, Alaska Energy Metals seeks to fortify U.S. self-sufficiency in critical minerals while contributing to a cleaner, low-carbon future.

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What is COP29 and Why Is It Hailed as The “Finance COP”?

Jennifer L
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0
What is COP29 and Why Is It Hailed as The “Finance COP”?

As climate change worsens, the UN’s 29th annual climate conference, a.k.a. COP29, taking place from November 11 to 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan, is a crucial chance to boost global efforts to tackle this problem. With the world experiencing severe weather events and record-high emissions, the summit will focus on vital topics like climate funding, national goals, and ways to deal with climate damage.

Nearly 200 countries will gather, and what happens here will shape international climate policies for years to come. Let’s break down all the important details you should know about this crucial climate talk. 

What Are the Main Goals of COP29?

COP29 is expected to be a major event for climate discussions, focusing on improving financial support for developing countries, increasing transparency, and setting strong climate goals. The summit aims to bring countries together to speed up the implementation of the Paris Agreement while tackling the intensifying impacts of climate change due to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Global Carbon Emissions in 2023

global carbon emissions 2023
Source: Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Davis, S.J. et al. Global carbon emissions in 2023. Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 253–254 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00532-2

How Will Climate Funding Be Discussed at COP29?

Known as the “Finance COP,” COP29 will review climate funding for the first time in 15 years. The goal is to create a new target (NCQG) to replace the old goal of raising $100 billion annually by 2020, set during the 2009 Copenhagen Conference. 

This new goal is important for helping vulnerable countries invest in clean energy and build resilience against climate impacts.

Negotiators will discuss key questions, like how much funding is needed, the timeline for achieving this goal, and what types of financial help are required. Initial talks suggest that the new goal could involve a mix of public and private funding sources. This creates a broad approach to climate finance.

A stronger climate funding goal will be vital for countries to enhance their climate commitments and create effective strategies. For instance, nations like India and Indonesia have stated that they need significant financial resources to meet their climate targets while still promoting economic growth.

Setting up reliable funding mechanisms will help build trust among nations, encouraging cooperation and dedication to global climate efforts.

What New Climate Goals Can We Expect at COP29?

Another important part of COP29 will be the expected announcements of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the 2025 deadline. These contributions are essential for global efforts to fight climate change under the Paris Agreement. Major polluters, like Brazil, the UK, and the UAE, are likely to announce stronger goals for reducing GHG emissions.

Next-generation NDCs must set clear, ambitious targets for 2030 and 2035, which are critical for keeping global temperature rise within the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit. These commitments should include specific emissions reductions for different sectors, and guiding policies across energy, transportation, and agriculture. 

Clearly communicating these targets will also signal to investors the direction of climate finance, influencing funding toward low-carbon projects.

For example, the European Union plans to increase its climate ambitions, aiming for a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. Similarly, the United States is expected to reaffirm its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, promoting significant investments in renewable energy and technological innovation.

How Will COP29 Address Loss and Damage?

As the climate crisis grows, some impacts go beyond what vulnerable countries can adapt to, making funding for “loss and damage” urgent. 

At COP28 in Dubai last year, the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage was created to support developing nations hit by climate disasters. However, only $700 million has been pledged so far. That’s far less than the estimated $580 billion in damages vulnerable countries may face by 2030.

At COP29, developed nations are called upon to announce additional contributions to close this funding gap, ensuring that support reaches communities most affected by climate change. This funding is crucial for addressing immediate needs, such as rebuilding infrastructure and providing disaster relief, as well as long-term investments in resilience and adaptation.

For instance, countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have faced severe floods and storms, require substantial international support to recover and strengthen their ability to withstand future climate impacts. Mobilizing resources for loss and damage will help these nations and reinforce the solidarity needed for effective global climate action.

What Is Needed to Close the Adaptation Finance Gap?

Closing the adaptation finance gap, estimated at $194-$366 billion per year, is another key goal for COP29.

The Climate Policy Initiative estimates that to align with the Paris Agreement, global climate finance must reach $9 trillion annually by 2030. Analysts estimate that the $9 trillion has to rise to over $10 trillion annually from 2031 to 2050 as shown below.

climate financing gap 2030 - 2050

Europe, in particular, faces substantial investment needs, requiring €800 billion for energy infrastructure by 2030 to meet its climate goals. By 2050, the region’s total green transition investment will need to reach €2.5 trillion, reflecting the scale of resources essential to achieve a sustainable and climate-resilient future.

Many developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate impacts but often lack the necessary financial resources to implement adaptation strategies. Countries have committed to doubling adaptation finance by 2025 as part of the Glasgow Climate Pact.

Negotiators will work to strengthen the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) at COP29 to ensure effective tracking of progress and financing. The GGA aims to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate impacts globally. 

Countries will be encouraged to share their experiences and best practices in adaptation, promoting a collaborative approach to tackle common challenges.

How Can Carbon Markets Be Used for Climate Action?

The summit will also look at international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, allowing countries to trade carbon credits. Finalizing the rules for these markets is essential to ensure they help reduce global emissions effectively.

Carbon markets can motivate countries to cut emissions by allowing those with extra credits to sell them to those who need them. However, negotiators must resolve key issues regarding how credits are authorized and ensure environmental safeguards are in place. Clear guidelines on credit accounting and environmental integrity will be crucial for making these markets successful.

Countries like Costa Rica and Chile have already made significant progress in using carbon markets to fund their climate initiatives. Establishing solid carbon pricing mechanisms can drive investment in renewable energy projects and encourage sustainable practices across various sectors.

What Role Will Transparency Play at COP29?

COP29 will be a crucial moment for putting into action the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement. Countries must submit their first biennial transparency reports detailing their efforts to reduce emissions and their financial support needs. 

The Azerbaijani presidency has started the Baku Global Climate Transparency Platform to help developing countries manage this process. This platform aims to support capacity-building efforts and provide technical help to countries struggling with reporting requirements. 

Transparency is vital for building trust among nations and ensuring accountability in climate actions. By improving transparency, COP29 will create an inclusive environment where all countries can share progress, challenges, and lessons learned.

How Will Non-State Actors Participate in COP29?

Another important part of COP29 will be the involvement of non-state actors, including businesses, civil society organizations, and indigenous groups. Their participation is crucial for driving climate action at local, national, and global levels. 

  • The role of private sector investment in financing climate solutions is essential, so engagement from business leaders will be vital in shaping the discussions at COP29.

Events like the Climate Business Forum will give private sector actors platforms to showcase innovative solutions and collaborate with governments. Companies that have made strong climate commitments will be encouraged to share their best practices and engage in dialogues about scaling up their efforts.

How Will COP29 Address Climate Justice and Equity?

A key theme for COP29 will be addressing climate justice and equity. The effects of climate change are not distributed evenly; vulnerable communities often suffer the most from climate-related disasters despite contributing the least to greenhouse gas emissions. 

The summit must highlight the importance of fair climate action that prioritizes the needs of marginalized populations.

Discussions will likely focus on ensuring that climate funding reaches those most affected by climate change, including women, youth, and indigenous peoples. Involving these communities in decision-making will be vital for creating solutions that are effective and culturally relevant.

Can COP29 Create a Historic Opportunity for Climate Action?

COP29 presents a unique chance to raise global climate ambition and secure essential funding for sustainable development. A strong financial outcome will empower vulnerable nations to pursue low-carbon strategies while enhancing resilience to climate threats. 

The success of COP29 will rely on negotiators’ ability to overcome political divisions and prioritize the urgent need for climate action. By establishing a new climate finance goal, strengthening national commitments, addressing loss and damage, and improving transparency, COP29 can ignite meaningful progress in the global fight against climate change.

As the summit approaches, the world watches with hope and expectation, eager for this gathering of nations to produce the concrete actions and commitments needed to prevent the worst effects of climate change.

IEA Predicts 90% Drop in Shipping Emissions by 2050. Can Maersk’s Bio-Methanol Deal be a Game-Changer?

Saptakee S
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0
IEA Predicts 90% Drop in Shipping Emissions by 2050. Can Maersk’s Bio-Methanol Deal be a Game-Changer?

The shipping industry is an integral part of international trade. Over the past 40 years, global maritime trade has increased 10X in value. Just like other transportation sectors aviation and auto, shipping also has some level of carbon emissions.

In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), shipping emissions could fall significantly. IEA predicts by 2035, emissions from international shipping may drop by nearly 60%, and by 2050, they could fall by more than 90%.

This shift is expected as the shipping industry adopts cleaner fuels like biofuels, ammonia, and methanol. By 2050, low-carbon fuels may power over 80% of global shipping.

shipping IEA

The Two-Way Approach to Decarbonizing Shipping

Decarbonizing the shipping industry is crucial for meeting global emissions targets. Currently, two primary strategies are in place which are enhancing energy efficiency and transitioning to low-emissions fuels. These approaches offer complementary benefits and can significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Boosting Energy Efficiency in Shipping

One of the simplest operational measures is “slow steaming,” which involves reducing the average speed of ships. This practice doesn’t require modifications to the vessels but can indirectly affect costs. While slow steaming can lower overall fuel consumption, it may also increase operational expenses due to a need for more ships to maintain the same shipping capacity. This is particularly significant for sectors relying on just-in-time delivery systems.

Many technologies to improve energy efficiency are already available. New regulations like the Carbon Intensity Index (CII) require ships to lower their emissions over time, encouraging both new ships and retrofits to adopt energy-saving features.

There are a variety of technical measures that can be implemented to improve a ship’s fuel efficiency. Some examples are:

  • Rigid Sails and Rotor Sails: Using wind for propulsion can reduce fuel usage.
  • Waste Heat Recovery: Capturing and reusing heat from the engine improves overall efficiency.
  • Anti-Fouling Hull Coatings: These prevent the growth of marine organisms on hulls, enhancing performance.
  • Hull Optimization: Streamlining hull shapes minimizes water resistance, boosting speed and efficiency.
  • Air Lubrication Systems: Generating microbubbles under the hull reduces friction.

Since 2010, the energy efficiency design of new ships has improved by 30-50%, driven by initiatives such as the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). While current energy efficiency technologies are commercially available, they are not adopted very easily.

IEA predicts that efficiency gains of 5-10% or more by 2030 are feasible with highly advanced energy-efficient methods.

Now speaking about costs; the investment required for energy-efficient upgrades varies widely, but they often pay off through fuel savings. For instance, hull form optimization costs about $250,000 and can boost energy efficiency by 7.5%. More extensive retrofits, such as kite sails, can cost up to $1.2 million but offer smaller gains.

On the other hand, a new bulk carrier built with cutting-edge technology could be 40% more efficient than one built in 2023, while a retrofitted container ship could achieve about 30% in energy savings.

Transitioning to low-emission fuels

While improving energy efficiency is vital, it cannot completely eliminate emissions. This is why the shipping industry must also shift to low-emissions fuels to reach its net zero target.

Promising options for low-emission fuels are:

  • Biodiesel: Can be used in existing diesel engines with little modification.
  • Biomethane: A renewable alternative compatible with LNG engines.

These drop-in fuels have limitations based on the availability of sustainable biomass and high production costs. Despite being cheaper to implement, their overall costs may be higher due to market competition, particularly from aviation.

Advanced Alternatives: Methanol, Ammonia, and Hydrogen

  • Methanol: Gaining popularity, methanol-fueled vessels are on the rise. In 2023, the first methanol-fueled container ship with a dual-fuel engine began operation. However, methanol requires modifications to ship engines and tanks.
  • Ammonia: Although at a lower technology readiness level, ammonia offers a promising future due to its lack of carbon sourcing requirements. Approximately 20 ammonia-powered vessels are on order, with deliveries expected by 2026.
  • Hydrogen: Over 20 hydrogen-fueled vessels are currently operational or planned. Safety guidelines for hydrogen usage in shipping are being developed, aligned with those for ammonia.

Shipping companies will need to consider the total cost of ownership, including fuel costs over a vessel’s lifespan when deciding which fuel technology to adopt. While methanol may be cost-effective for smaller vessels, ammonia tends to be more economical for larger ships.

IEA

Future Emissions Trajectories

International maritime shipping emissions have risen sharply in recent years, with a peak of 0.67 Gt CO2 in 2023, accounting for around 2% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Emissions reductions will heavily depend on policies that promote faster efficiency gains and the switch to low-emission fuels.

In a scenario aligned with the latest IMO GHG Strategy, emissions could be reduced by more than 90% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels, primarily through low-emissions fuels like ammonia.

As shipping activity is projected to increase significantly, implementing low-emission strategies becomes imperative. By 2040, fossil fuel use in shipping could drop from nearly 100% to less than 30%.

However, the transition to low-emission shipping technologies will require substantial investment and regulatory support. Nonetheless, the potential for significant emissions reductions makes it significant for the industry.

Maersk Seals Long-Term Bio-Methanol Deal to Achieve Zero-Emission in Shipping

Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller–Maersk has entered a long-term agreement with China’s LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd to purchase bio-methanol. This partnership strengthens Maersk’s commitment to zero-emission shipping. The press release revealed that,

It will meet Maersk’s methanol sustainability requirements including at least 65% reductions in GHG emissions on a lifecycle basis compared to fossil fuels of 94 g CO2e/MJ. The bio-methanol supply is set to begin in 2026.

Bio-fuels and e-methanol are emerging as go-to alternatives for major fossil fuel users, such as the shipping industry, due to their scalability and potential for sustainable production.

However, Maersk highlighted that the substantial cost difference between fossil fuels and greener options remains a significant barrier, challenging the shipping industry’s progress toward adopting alternative fuels and achieving net-zero targets.

Disclaimer: Source of all data and images from IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2024

MUST READ: Can Nuclear Power Propel Maritime into a Zero-Emission Era? Maersk to Explore Nuclear for Ships 

Can the Lithium Market Overcome Falling Prices and Weak Demand in 2024?

Jennifer L
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0
Can the Lithium Market Overcome Falling Prices and Weak Demand in 2024?

The lithium market has entered a period of price decline, mainly because of weaker demand conditions and an oversupply of lithium carbonate in key regions.

In October, seaborne lithium carbonate prices for Asia dropped by 3.8%, hovering around $10,000 per metric ton, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis. 

seaborne China lithium price

The price dip reflects the seasonal winding down of demand typically seen at the end of the year when electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers prepare for a slowdown in post-peak sales. While September saw relative price stability, October’s downward shift reveals how the supply chain dynamics are pressing lithium markets. This is especially true in China’s case, which has been the dominant player in global EV sales in 2024. 

  • The slowdown underscores the lithium market’s key issue: maintaining demand growth and stabilizing prices amid fluctuating EV sales patterns.

China’s lithium market, the largest globally, saw prices fall by 3.3% in October, settling at about 73,000 yuan per ton. While a brief rebound was observed toward the end of the month, prices continue to reflect the underlying pressures of oversupply. This surplus is compounded by high inventories and the slower-than-expected uptake in EV markets outside of China. 

The global market’s current inability to absorb excess supply effectively sets the tone for a persistent price slump, possibly extending into the next several years.

Li-FT Power: Exploring & Developing Hard Rock Lithium Deposits In Canada

Li-FT Power Ltd. (TSXV: LIFT) recently announced its first-ever National Instrument 43-101 (NI 43-101) compliant mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Yellowknife Lithium Project (YLP), located in the Northwest Territories, Canada.

An Initial Mineral Resource of 50.4 Million Tonnes at Yellowknife.

This maiden estimate is a major milestone for the company and marks a significant step forward in the project’s development. Li-FT Power’s upcoming mineral resource is expected to further solidify Yellowknife as one of North America’s largest hard rock lithium resources.

Click to learn more about lithium and Li-FT Power Ltd. >>

Strategic Adjustments Among Lithium Producers

In response to these challenges, major lithium producers are taking action to manage costs and production levels. 

Companies like Sinomine Resource Group have opted to cut production in higher-cost regions. In Zimbabwe, for instance, Sinomine has minimized its petalite mining operations to prioritize spodumene extraction, which has a lower production cost. This shift reflects a broader industry trend, where companies focus on streamlining their operations to protect profit margins as market prices dip. 

Another significant strategic move within the industry was the recent acquisition of Arcadium Lithium by Rio Tinto. It is a substantial shift in the company’s approach to the lithium sector. This acquisition is particularly important for Rio Tinto as it extends the company’s footprint in lithium production beyond its existing projects in Serbia and Argentina, allowing it to target markets outside of China more effectively.

One of Arcadium’s main competitive advantages lies in its exploration of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology. DLE can revolutionize the lithium market by unlocking reserves in brine deposits previously considered difficult to exploit using traditional methods. 

Presently, there are 13 DLE projects in operation, with total output projected to reach about 124,000 tonnes in 2024. According to Benchmark’s data, DLE technology can account for 14% of the global lithium supply by 2035, producing around 470,000 tonnes of LCE. This growth underscores the increasing role of DLE in meeting lithium demand for battery and EV markets.

Direct lithium extraction forecast

Global Investments and Expanding Lithium Supply Chain

Investments in lithium production continue to grow despite the current market downturn, which signals optimism about long-term demand. 

In October, General Motors made a notable move by increasing its stake in the Lithium Nevada project to 38% with an additional $625 million investment. This initiative speaks of a long-term commitment to secure local lithium supplies. It aligns with the U.S. government’s strategic push to strengthen domestic EV battery production and reduce reliance on imports. 

The U.S. Department of Energy has already extended a substantial loan of $2.26 billion to support phase 1 construction of this project. The figure reveals the critical importance of domestic lithium resources for national energy goals. 

While traditional methods dominate current production, the lithium market is also increasingly exploring technological advancements. General Motors and other industry stakeholders are actively pursuing direct extraction methods to unlock challenging lithium deposits. 

By experimenting with DLE, the U.S.-based Lithium Nevada project aims to reduce environmental impacts and shorten production timelines. These technological investments indicate that despite current pricing challenges, there’s confidence in lithium’s long-term demand potential. More so as EV adoption grows and global green energy transitions accelerate.

Long-Term Market Forecast and Expected Price Recovery

Looking ahead, lithium prices could remain in a tight range. S&P Global Commodity Insight’s forecasts suggest that the price of lithium carbonate will stay between $9,924 and $11,627 per metric ton until 2026. This projection reflects the industry’s cautious outlook as companies expect that demand growth will take time to balance the current surplus. 

  • Analysts predict that a substantial price recovery may not materialize until 2028, with a forecasted rise to $14,659 per metric ton, or about a 20.8% increase, as the market finally shifts into a deficit.

lithium price forecast S&P Global

The expected long-term supply shortage is largely tied to the anticipated increase in EV adoption and the renewable energy transition. Both of these demand drivers require significant lithium resources. 

However, automakers worldwide are adjusting their production strategies to balance profitability with sustainable growth. This brings uncertainty to the exact timing of the demand shift that will absorb today’s excess supply.

In summary, the lithium market in 2024 reflects a complex blend of challenges and opportunities. Prices remain low due to oversupply and fluctuating EV demand, especially outside of China, but the long-term outlook for lithium still holds promise.

The lithium industry’s ability to adapt to today’s market conditions will shape the future landscape of this essential resource, ensuring its place in the global shift toward a sustainable energy future.

Bank Of America Flags Liquidity Challenges in Carbon Markets: Will COP29 Usher in a New Era of Climate Finance?

Saptakee S
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Bank Of America Flags Liquidity Challenges in Carbon Markets: Will COP29 Usher in a New Era of Climate Finance?

This year’s COP29 summit will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11-22. The focus will primarily be on delivering stronger climate finance and advancing a global carbon trading framework.

Interestingly, Bloomberg reported that Bank of America (BofA) has flagged liquidity concerns in carbon markets. It has highlighted the need for transparent and reliable trading standards, which is one of the key agendas of COP29. This is also a consequence of negotiators planning to change the dynamics of the carbon credit market in the future.

Here’s an in-depth look at what’s on the agenda for COP29 and why it matters.

COP29: Setting a New Climate Finance Target

For the first time since 2009, countries will meet at COP29 to reassess the funds required for climate action from developing countries. The decision will create a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate financing, which will replace the earlier fixed target of $100 billion per annum.

The NCQG aims to build the capacity of vulnerable nations to develop climate resilience and transition to low-carbon growth while protecting their communities from worsening climate impacts.

It’s already palpable that rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and increased costs for adaptation are imposing tremendous stress on developing countries. And this reassessment comes as a blessing during such inclement times.

Once there is mutual agreement on these issues, it will lay the foundation for carbon trading. This standardization will tackle liquidity challenges and broaden access to this facility for both developing and developed nations.

Bank of America Weighs in on Article 6.4 for the Future Carbon Credit Market

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is another “high-stakes” topic to be discussed in COP29. Under this provision, countries are permitted to trade carbon credits with one another. Therefore, countries can meet their climate goals by investing in reducing emissions elsewhere.

For instance, a country rich in forest cover can sell credits generated from protecting its forests to fund its conservation efforts. The purchasing countries can then count these reductions toward their climate targets.

Negotiators are highly focused on Article 6.4, which sets up a new platform to harmonize carbon credit trading.

Abyd Karmali, Managing Director of ESG & Sustainable Finance at Bank of America, stated that Article 6.4 is vital for the future of the carbon credit market. He noted that this is a critical market and clear, legally binding standards are essential to ensure the carbon market supports emissions reduction goals.

Karmali is also an esteemed delegate who will be monitoring talks at the COP29 climate summit.

International carbon trading under Article 6, unlike the voluntary carbon market (VCM), will be subject to strict international oversight. These standards will help avoid some of the fraud and “greenwashing” charges that have plagued the voluntary markets and create a better and more trustworthy system for trading emissions reductions.

BloombergNEF’s Take on Carbon Trading

BloombergNEF has pointed out that new standards for carbon credits have boosted efforts to establish a global carbon trading system under the United Nations. However, these new guidelines seem to be weaker than the existing ones.

Even if they receive approval at the upcoming international climate summit in November, significant work remains to fully implement a mechanism that was first proposed in Article 6.4 of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, experts hope that international standards can revitalize carbon trading and draw companies and governments away from the troubled VCM.

Layla Khanfar, a research associate at BloombergNEF, believes Article 6.4’s potential impact could be significant. She said,

“A finalized deal could lead to supply standardization and improve global liquidity. These are both valuable stepping stones towards a carbon credit market BNEF estimates could be valued at over $1 trillion by 2050.”

Voluntary Carbon Market’s Liquidity Problem

This leaves the VCM itself, in which nearly all corporations currently buy credits to offset their emissions, in deep trouble regarding liquidity.

We discovered from the same Bloomberg report that BofA has approached this market cautiously, citing low trading volumes and persistent accusations of greenwashing. These claims have eroded its credibility. According to MSCI, VCM volumes fell more than 20% last year, dropping to about $1 billion in trades.

Top companies such as Volkswagen, Telstra, and TotalEnergies have utilized the VCM as a method of balancing their emissions.

However, Karmali has said that “there’s simply not enough liquidity” to sustain it as a viable climate tool. He added that over the last two years, the market has experienced a steep decline, making it very difficult for participants to operate within the current systems.

The Transparency Milestone at COP29

COP29 marks the first full implementation of the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement. In this agreement, countries will have to submit their inaugural biennial transparency reports (BTRs) by the end of the year. These reports will contain details of their climate actions, including emissions reductions, adaptation strategies, and climate finance flows.

Subsequently, the Azerbaijani presidency launched the Baku Global Climate Transparency Platform to support this initiative. Notably, this platform particularly helps countries who are less familiar with climate reporting.

Transparent reporting will hold countries accountable and serve as a reliable resource for policymakers and stakeholders. The information in BTRs will be crucial for evaluating national climate commitments and identifying gaps in global action.

We expect COP29 will present an outstanding opportunity for a more sustainable and resilient future. Major emitters are stepping up with strong commitments, and financial institutions like Bank of America are backing these efforts. By encouraging collaboration and transparency, COP29 has all the potential to drive meaningful progress in carbon markets and climate finance.

Sources:

  1. BofA Calls Out Liquidity Barriers as Bankers Await CO2 Deal – BNN Bloomberg
  2. What to Expect at the 2024 UN Climate Summit (COP29) | World Resources Institute

The Nickel Market is Changing Big Time: Is a Supply-Demand Shift Underway?

Jennifer L
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The Nickel Market is Changing Big Time: Is a Supply-Demand Shift Underway?

Nickel, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and stainless steel, is experiencing significant changes in supply dynamics and pricing. Recent activities by Nickel Industries and market reactions to global economic conditions paint a picture of both challenges and opportunities in the nickel sector.

Nickel Industries Strategic Moves in Indonesia

Nickel Industries, an Australian company, could become one of the largest nickel resource holders in the world with its strategic acquisitions in Indonesia. 

In August 2024, the company signed agreements to purchase the Sampala project and secured a 51% stake in the Siduarsi project. These moves come amid a severe nickel ore shortage in Indonesia. This has led to a staggering 45% rise in local nickel prices since late 2023. 

According to Justin Werner, Managing Director of Nickel Industries, this acquisition is crucial for mitigating the impact of ore shortages and the high prices associated with them.

The Sampala project boasts a significant resource of 2.3 million metric tons of contained nickel metal, along with 200,000 metric tons of cobalt. Werner expects this resource to expand dramatically, potentially reaching up to 10 million metric tons of nickel metal. Once that happens, it will be among the top five known nickel resources globally. 

With plans to commence shipping ore by the end of 2025, Nickel Industries aims to ensure a self-sufficient ore supply for its operations in the Morowali Industrial Park.

In addition, the Siduarsi project has revealed an initial resource of 52 million dry metric tons at a promising nickel grade of 1.1%. This resource is anticipated to grow, and there are projections that the total contained nickel could double. Nickel Industries’ strong position in Indonesia positions it as a key player in the global nickel market.

Global Price Shifts and Market Impact 

While Nickel Industries is making headlines with its acquisitions, broader market trends are affecting nickel prices globally. 

  • The London Metal Exchange (LME) recently reported that nickel prices fell to $15,873 per metric ton by the end of October 2024. This decline followed a brief surge to a four-month high of $18,153 per ton earlier in the month. 

The drop was largely attributed to a lack of investor enthusiasm following China’s recent stimulus measures, which did not meet expectations for more aggressive economic support.

China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, and its economic health is vital for nickel prices. After the Chinese central bank announced its stimulus package on September 24, 2024, investor confidence briefly increased, leading to higher nickel prices. 

However, as details of the package emerged and manufacturing activity in China remained weak, investor sentiment shifted, causing prices to retreat.

Data from S&P Global Commodity Insights maps in detail major market events impacting LME 3M nickel prices shown below.

nickel prices LME 3M drops

Adding to this volatility, stocks of Russia-origin nickel in LME warehouses increased significantly, rising 19.6% month over month, per S&P Global analysis. 

This surge in inventory occurs despite an LME ban on new deliveries from Russia in response to geopolitical tensions. As a result, a mix of increased nickel stocks and reduced investor confidence has put downward pressure on LME nickel prices.

Indonesia’s Production Strategy in Focus

Indonesia remains a pivotal player in the global nickel landscape. The country’s energy and mineral resources minister indicated that the government plans to regulate nickel ore production to maintain a balance between supply and demand. 

Such strategy is particularly important given the challenges posed by a new domestic mining approval system that has led some producers to import nickel ore from the Philippines, the second-largest nickel producer.

Interestingly, despite the tight supply situation, Indonesia’s primary nickel output increased by 14.5% year-over-year during the first eight months of 2024. The largest nickel producer is also trying to shift away from China-based ownership to qualify for the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

Indonesia primary nickel output growth 2024

This trend highlights the country’s potential to drive global nickel production growth. As Indonesia continues to manage its production levels carefully, it can maintain its status as a leading supplier in the nickel market.

How Do Future Nickel Prices Look Like?

Looking ahead, S&P Global analysts have revised their price forecasts for nickel. Following the October price fluctuations, the forecast for the LME nickel price in the December quarter has been upgraded to $16,583 per ton. This reflects a decline compared to the previous year.

Nevertheless, ongoing discussions in China about issuing significant amounts of debt to stimulate growth could improve investor sentiment and support nickel prices in the near future.

Projections show a surplus in the global primary nickel output over the next four years, growing annually at almost 6%. Yet, Indonesia’s evolving mining policies and production strategies introduce uncertainties that could affect this outlook. 

Global primary nickel output forecast
Chart from S&P Global Commodity Insights

The recent developments in both Nickel Industries and the broader nickel market underscore the dynamic nature of this essential metal industry. The future of nickel will depend not only on local production strategies in Indonesia but also on global economic conditions and investor confidence.

VCM Demand Surge: 147 Million Credits in 2024 Retired Amid Tightening Supply

Jennifer L
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VCM Demand Surge: 147 Million Credits in 2024 Retired Amid Tightening Supply

A new report from Viridios AI, a provider of carbon credit pricing and data, offers valuable insights into the current landscape of the voluntary carbon market (VCM). It shows the VCM experienced relatively low trading activity, with notable fluctuations in the prices of specific projects.

However, year-to-date retirements in 2024 reveal strong demand for carbon credits and they’ve exceeded those in the same period in 2023. We highlight the key insights below that may have a huge impact on the VCM’s future.

Demand Outpaces Supply With Record Carbon Credit Retirements

Viridios AI used data from the four major carbon registries in generating the graphs:

  • Verra,
  • Gold Standard,
  • American Carbon Registry, and
  • Climate Action Reserve.

As of now, 2024 year-to-date retirements have surpassed those in the same period in 2023, with a remarkable 147 million credits retired from the largest registries. 

carbon credit retirements cumulative per month Viridios AI

quarterly carbon credit retirements Viridios AI
Charts from Viridios AI

As seen in the first chart above, monthly cumulative carbon credit retirements keep on growing, with the recent month surpassing both the 2022 and 2023 results. Similarly, quarterly credit retirements in 2024 (second chart) exceeded those in the same period last year. 

This trend highlights a growing commitment among companies and organizations to offset their carbon footprints. It also reflects a robust demand for carbon credits in the face of increasing regulatory pressures and climate goals.

In contrast, the market shows signs of shifting from oversupply toward a tightening of inventory with a slowing growth rate. 

The graph reveals that monthly cumulative credit issuances, or credit supply, in 2024 are still growing. However, the amount (in metric tonnes) of issuances this year has significantly dropped compared to last year and even so since 2022. 

monthly Cumulative carbon Credits Issuances Viridios AI
Chart from Viridios AI

The quarterly carbon credit supply paints a different picture. While Quarters 1 and 2 have seen lower issuances in 2024 versus 2023, Q3 experienced much higher supply, with over 10 million metric tonnes compared to the same period last year. 

Quarterly Credit Issuances Viridios AI
Chart from Viridios AI

In a separate analysis, overall credit inventory has risen, but the rate of increase has slowed significantly—from 34% in 2021 to 8% in 2024 so far. 

VCM issuances, retirements and inventory growth Rich Gilmore
Source: Rich Gilmore (Carbon Growth Partners)

These changes point to a narrowing supply-demand market gap, especially as we approach the typical Q4 surge in voluntary carbon credit retirements. 

Credit Supply Challenges Loom

Supply issues are prominent, with REDD+ credit (projects including efforts to avoid deforestation and degradation) volumes declining. REDD+ credit volumes could face reductions exceeding 60% due to new methodologies like VM0048, making some projects financially unfeasible. 

Viridios AI data further suggests that the VCM experienced relatively low trading activity, with notable fluctuations in the prices of certain carbon projects.

The report shows that REDD+ credit prices in all regions, both for vintages 2018 and 2022, have been falling. The biggest retiree of REDD+ carbon credits for the last 30 days is the French energy major Engie SA. The company retired over 907 thousand metric tonnes of these credits from the Congo REDD+ project.

REDD+ carbon credit price
Chart from Viridios AI

Alternative sources, such as cookstove projects, may bridge part of the supply gap but also at reduced volumes. These projects lower carbon emissions through efficient cookstoves that release fewer pollutants and use less biomass. 

Viridios AI report reveals that prices for cookstove carbon credits are increasing in Latin America and Southeast Asia regions. On the other hand, prices in Africa for these projects have been dropping in all vintages (2018-2022). 

cookstove carbon credits price

Carbon Price Tension Ahead

The Viridios AI report on the VCM presents a complex picture of the shifting supply and demand landscape for carbon credits, highlighting trends that are likely to impact future pricing.

The key takeaway is a narrowing supply-demand gap as credit issuances slow, while retirements—reflecting demand—continue to surge. This dynamic has implications for the price stability of specific carbon credits, like those tied to REDD+ and cookstove projects.

The voluntary carbon market is increasingly used by companies to offset their emissions. However, with current low carbon credit prices discouraging new investments, the market’s capacity to meet rising demand may be limited. And with a continued strong retirement rate, this could drive prices up as supply struggles to keep pace, especially for high-quality carbon credits.

The upcoming discussions and decisions at COP29 will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the future of carbon markets, especially concerning the integration of REDD+ initiatives. Stakeholders will be watching closely as they navigate the evolving carbon market.

Canada’s $16.5 Billion Bet on Carbon Capture: Could It Cut Oil Sands Emissions?

Jennifer L
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0
Canada’s $16.5 Billion Bet on Carbon Capture: Could It Cut Oil Sands Emissions?

A group of Canada’s largest oil sands companies, the Pathways Alliance, is in active discussions with Canada Growth Fund (CGF), the federal government’s $15-billion green investment arm, to secure backing for a substantial carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in northern Alberta. 

CCS technology is seen as one of the most effective solutions to reduce emissions in high-polluting sectors like oil, gas, and cement. Canada views this carbon management approach as essential for achieving its net-zero emissions goals.

Carbon Capture Enters the Big Leagues But Price Uncertainty Raises Concerns

The country currently operates several CCS projects that have stored around 44 million tonnes of CO₂ since 2000. 

The federal plan calls for tripling national CCS capacity by 2030 to meet its carbon emission reduction targets. This ambitious goal would require adding new facilities capable of capturing 15 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.

how carbon capture and storage works
Image from Congressional Budget Office.Gov

The Pathways Alliance project would include a $16.5-billion network for capturing and storing CO₂ emissions from over a dozen oil sands facilities. The captured CO₂ will be transported to a central hub in Cold Lake, Alberta. Once operational, this network would permanently store the captured CO₂ deep underground, supporting efforts to reduce emissions across Alberta’s oil sands industry.

This is a major step in decarbonization efforts for Canada’s oil and gas sector. However, oil sands executives remain wary of the potential financial risks tied to the future price of carbon. 

Adam Waterous, executive chairman of Strathcona Resources, emphasized the “stroke-of-the-pen” risk, a term used to describe the industry’s fear that regulatory changes or policy reversals, such as a shift in the carbon tax, could drastically impact the value of carbon credits.

Waterous, whose company is the first in the sector to strike a CCS deal with CGF, suggested that industry leaders are cautious about committing capital to projects that could ultimately result in stranded assets if carbon prices don’t stabilize.

Moreover, Waterous foresees a significant need for sequestered carbon from technology firms looking to offset emissions. In particular, a recent carbon capture deal between Microsoft and Occidental Petroleum, aimed at reducing data center emissions.

The Role of Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD)

To address industry apprehensions, experts recommend using Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD). It offers a guaranteed floor price for sequestered carbon. CCfDs help “de-risk” investments in emissions reduction technology by providing more stable pricing. 

They argue it could be a decisive factor in encouraging the Pathways Alliance and other companies to pursue costly CCS projects. 

Canada Growth Fund was partially designed to deploy tools like CCfDs to jumpstart green investments. However, it has not yet offered these to oil and gas producers, who are also seeking loan support for carbon capture technology.

The only oil and gas-related agreement involving CCfDs that CGF has reached thus far is with Entropy, a clean-tech company owned by Advantage Energy. The deal allows Entropy to sell carbon credits with an initial value of up to 185,000 tonnes at $86.50 per tonne. 

In contrast, oil producers seeking to meet compliance obligations through carbon credits have been unable to secure similar agreements with CGF, leaving a gap in support for some of the industry’s largest players.

World’s Largest CCS Project by Pathways Alliance

The Pathways Alliance comprises six major oil sands companies:

  1. Canadian Natural Resources,
  2. Suncor Energy,
  3. Cenovus Energy,
  4. Imperial Oil,
  5. MEG Energy, and
  6. ConocoPhillips Canada. 

If successful, their carbon capture and storage network would be the world’s largest and a landmark in global CCS projects. The alliance is eager to collaborate with Ottawa, recognizing the role government backing plays in ensuring the viability of large-scale CCS ventures. 

Kendall Dilling, president of the Pathways Alliance, expressed optimism over Ottawa’s commitment to de-risking industry investments, stating that they “look forward to continued engagement with the government.”

Other policy experts echoed the sentiment that any successful deal would depend on assurance that the operating costs for carbon capture and storage infrastructure will be viable in the long term. This happens if carbon pricing remains stable. 

Carbon Pricing: A Make-or-Break Factor

The fate of the Pathways Alliance’s CCS project will hinge on the development of carbon pricing policies and market demand. The recent surge in carbon credit retirements, representing demand, highlights a potential future trend that could significantly impact carbon prices. 

Remarkably, Rich Gilmore, CEO of Carbon Growth Partners, stated that although retirements have fluctuated in the past, 2024 looks set to hit a record high. He shared on LinkedIn some of his interesting insights regarding voluntary carbon market (VCM) growth. 

Rich Gilmore on voluntary carbon market growth
Source: Rich Gilmore via LinkedIn

As seen in the chart below, demand surged from November 2023 to January 2024, causing a sharp drop in inventory. This spike was largely due to Shell retiring around 17 million credits to hit its internal net emissions efficiency target. That’s one company offsetting about 28% of its Scope 1 and 2 emissions—without even touching Scope 3.

This shift, spurred by one major player, demonstrates the scale of impact that corporations can have on the VCM. 

VCM issuances, retirements and inventory growth Rich Gilmore
Source: Rich Gilmore (Carbon Growth Partners)

Now, imagine the impact when more companies commit to scaling their carbon reduction strategies taking Shell as an example. The demand could quickly outpace supply, driving up carbon credit prices and creating a more competitive market for offsets.

Shell’s industry has a strong reliance on carbon capture technology to help meet decarbonization targets. Canada, as part of its Emissions Reduction Plan, focuses on achieving substantial emission cuts in the oil and gas sector. 

As the country navigates its decarbonization goals, the Pathways Alliance’s CCS negotiations with CGF show the complexities of advancing green initiatives within a competitive, carbon-intensive sector.

With potential government support on the horizon, Canada’s oil sands companies could help make significant progress toward lowering emissions. Once it happens, it will set a precedent for industry-government collaboration on climate action in the years to come. 

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