Gold Prices Dip Below $4,100, but ETF Inflows Keep the Bull Market Alive

Gold continues to be a top asset in 2026. Even though prices have dropped from their highs earlier this year, gold trades at elevated levels. Investors are looking for protection against inflation, geopolitical issues, rising government debt, and slowing economic growth.

This gold market differs from past rallies. Today, several long-term trends support it. Central banks are buying gold at near-record levels. Investment demand is growing, mine supply is limited, and uncertainty in global monetary policy boosts gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.

Many analysts expect gold to stay above historical averages through 2026 and beyond, attracting both institutional and retail investors.

Gold Prices Ease After Record Rally

Gold started 2026 on a strong note, hitting a high of US$5,600 per ounce. Recently, prices have pulled back to around US$4,100 per ounce as of mid-July. This is still over 20% higher than last year and well above the decade’s average.

gold prices
Source: Trading Economics

The recent dip is largely due to strong U.S. economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high longer. Higher rates usually strengthen the U.S. dollar and boost bond yields, making gold less attractive.

However, analysts believe this pullback is more of a consolidation than a long-term decline.

According to Reuters, renewed geopolitical tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty often push investors back to gold during market volatility. Safe-haven buying helps limit the downside, even with rising Treasury yields.

Trading Economics shows that gold remains above its long-term trend. This indicates that structural demand outweighs temporary economic challenges.

Analysts Stay Positive Despite Short-Term Volatility

Leading financial institutions maintain positive views on gold, though their forecasts vary based on interest rate and growth expectations.

  • Research firm Metals Focus anticipates gold prices will average around US$4,920 per ounce in 2026. They cite ongoing central bank purchases, strong investment demand, and limited mine supply.
  • HSBC has lowered its short-term price forecasts, saying higher real interest rates and a stronger dollar might limit gains. Still, they expect prices to stay well above historical averages due to strong structural demand.ย  It expects gold to trade between $3,800 and $4,700 for the rest of 2026, ending the year at $4,750 before rising to $5,025 by the end of 2027.
  • On the contrary, JPMorgan thinks gold could reach US$6,000 per ounce in Q4 2026ย if inflation stays high and central banks cut interest rates.

Most analysts agree that gold may see short-term volatility, but the long-term fundamentals are solid.

gold price forecast
Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

2026 Gold Demand: ETF Inflows and Bars Reshape the Gold Market

Investor demand has improved in the past year.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced heavy outflows when interest rates rose. Now, they are attracting new inflows. Investors are getting ready for slower economic growth and possible monetary easing.

Demand for gold bars and coins is high. Many people want to diversify their portfolios.

  • The WGC noted that global gold demand exceeded 5,000 tonnes in 2025, including over-the-counter (OTC) activityโ€”the highest ever recorded.

While high prices have reduced jewelry consumption in sensitive markets like India, strong investment buying has more than made up for it.

  • According to Metals Focus, total gold demand is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2026, as sharp drops in jewellery consumption and central bank purchases outweigh gains in other segments. However, stronger demand for physical gold bars and coins is projected to make physical investment the largest source of gold demand for the first time, overtaking jewellery.

gold demand

Central Banks Still Drive Global Demand

Central banks now play a major role in the gold market. The World Gold Council (WGC) says central banks are now big gold buyers. Governments are moving reserves from the U.S. dollar and boosting their physical gold holdings.

Global central bank purchases have topped 1,000 tonnes a year for three years. This shows a strong buying trend.

Countries in Asia, the Middle East, and emerging markets are adding gold to their reserves. This move aims to boost financial security during times of geopolitical uncertainty.

This steady buying has created a price floor not seen in previous cycles.

Supply Growth Remains Limited

Nonetheless, gold production does not increase quickly with rising prices. Developing a new gold mine often takes over a decade due to exploration, permitting, financing, and construction.

Furthermore, existing producers also face challenges. Ore grades are declining in many mature mining areas, and operating costs are high due to inflation. And new discoveries are harder to find.

  • However, Metals Focus estimates global gold supply will grow by only about 3% in 2026, with modest gains from mine production and recycled gold.
  • In 2025, total gold supply was 5,002.3 tonnes, as reported by WGC

Recycling tends to rise when prices go up, as more people sell old jewelry. However, recycled supply alone can’t meet long-term demand. Thisย slow supply growth supports higher prices.

gold supply
Source: WGC

Factors That Could Move Gold in 2026

Several key factors could influence gold prices in the coming months.

  • The biggest is U.S. monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve signals plans to lower interest rates, bond yields may drop, weakening the dollar. This would create a better environment for gold.
  • Inflation is another crucial factor. Although pressures have eased, inflation is still above many central bank targets. Gold has historically done well during inflationary periods as investors see it as a safe store of value.
  • Geopolitical developments also affect the market. Conflicts in the Middle East and tensions between major economies have often triggered safe-haven buying this year.
  • Lastly, government debt levels are increasingly important. Rising fiscal deficits in major economies strengthen the case for hard assets like gold, especially for institutional investors.

What This Means for Gold Investors

Todayโ€™s gold market offers a different opportunity than past cycles.

Investors are now paying more attention to companies that can generate strong cash flow during the commodity cycle. Higher gold prices often boost mining margins because production costs increase more slowly than gold prices.

They look for miners with low operating costs, long-life reserves, strong balance sheets, and stable operations. Companies with these traits can better benefit from high gold prices and manage risks.

However, gold mining stocks can be more volatile than physical gold. Their performance is influenced by bullion prices, production growth, operating costs, and project execution. Quality and efficiency matter just as much as the gold price itself.

Central banks are buying gold, supply is limited, and economic uncertainty is high. This keeps the outlook strong for bullion and good gold producers. Short-term volatility may persist, but many analysts see solid drivers behind the current gold bull market.

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Pullback Comes as AI Giant Faces Its Biggest Sustainability Test Yet

NVIDIA has been one of Wall Street’s biggest winners during the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Its chips power many of the world’s largest AI models, making the company a key supplier to Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and other tech giants.

Yet, in 2026, NVIDIA’s (NVDA) stock has fallen behind the broader market after years of explosive gains. Some investors see the pullback as a buying opportunity. Others are asking whether the company’s rapid growth can continue as AI demands more electricity, more data centers, and larger investments in clean energy.

NVIDIA Stock Slows After Years of Record Gains

NVIDIA became the world’s most valuable public company earlier this year as demand for AI chips continued to surge. Its market value briefly climbed above $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach that milestone.

Even so, the stock has struggled to match the broader market in recent months. According to The Motley Fool, investors have become more cautious after several years of exceptional gains. Expectations are now much higher, meaning the company must continue delivering strong revenue growth to justify its premium valuation.

Many analysts, however, remain optimistic. They point to NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI computing, where demand still exceeds supply in several parts of the market.

AI Investment Still Fuels NVIDIA’s Growth

The long-term outlook for AI infrastructure remains strong.

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), global spending on AI could hit $632 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual rate of about 29%. Most of that investment will focus on AI servers, cloud infrastructure, networking gear, and advanced chips.

NVIDIA sits at the center of this expansion.

Its latest Blackwell AI platform is now being deployed by major cloud providers worldwide. The company says every leading cloud service provider offers NVIDIA AI infrastructure, while thousands of companies are building AI applications using its hardware and software.

Demand also continues to grow beyond traditional cloud computing. Governments, manufacturers, healthcare firms, financial institutions, and research groups are all investing in AI systems that need advanced graphics processing units (GPUs).

These trends help explain why many investors still see NVIDIA as one of the biggest long-term beneficiaries of the AI revolution.

The AI Boom Comes With a Bigger Carbon Footprint

Rapid growth comes with a cost. Training and running AI models require enormous computing power. That means more data centers, more electricity, and more advanced chips.

AI energy cost per query
Source: UNU Report

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electricity demand from data centers is expected to more than double by 2030, driven largely by AI. The agency estimates that by the end of the decade, global data centers could use about 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. That’s more than Japan’s annual power use.

Building these facilities also creates large emissions. Manufacturing semiconductors, servers, steel, cement, and cooling equipment requires significant amounts of energy and raw materials.

This has shifted more attention toward the environmental impact of AI. Investors are increasingly looking beyond revenue growth. They also want to know how companies will reduce emissions while expanding AI infrastructure.

Efficiency Becomes NVIDIA’s Competitive Edge

NVIDIA says improving energy efficiency is one of its biggest priorities.

nvidia accelerated computing
Source: NVIDIA Report

According to the company’s latest Sustainability Report, nine of the world’s ten most energy-efficient supercomputers on the Green500 list use NVIDIA technologies. The company also says its newest Blackwell platform delivers much higher AI performance while using less energy per computation than previous generations.

The company has also expanded its climate commitments. NVIDIA’s near-term emissions reduction targets have been validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).

The tech giant aims to reduce absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by fiscal year 2030 from a fiscal 2023 baseline. It also plans to reduce Scope 3 emissions from the use of sold products by 75% per petaFLOP over the same period.

Those goals reflect a growing reality across the technology sector. The next stage of AI growth will not be judged only by faster chips or higher profits. It will also depend on how efficiently companies can power the AI economy while keeping emissions under control.

Where Does NVIDIA’s Biggest Carbon Footprint Lie?

Like many technology companies, most of NVIDIA’s emissions do not come from its offices.

According to its 2026 Sustainability Report, more than 99% of the company’s greenhouse gas emissions come from Scope 3 sources. These include emissions from suppliers, manufacturing partners, transportation, and the use of its products. NVIDIA designs its chips but relies on manufacturing partners such as TSMC to produce them.

NVIDIA GHG emissions 2026

To address this, the company is working more closely with suppliers. It encourages them to improve energy efficiency, use more renewable electricity, and report their emissions.

NVIDIA also says it is increasing the use of recycled materials in its products and packaging while improving product design to reduce waste. These efforts are becoming more important as demand for AI chips continues to grow.

Climate Goals Extend Across the AI Value Chain

NVIDIA has expanded its climate strategy in recent years.

The company aims to cut its Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 50% by fiscal year 2030, using fiscal year 2023 as its baseline. It also plans to reduce Scope 3 emissions from the use of sold products by 75% per petaFLOP by 2030. These targets have been validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).

NVIDIA has already achieved another important milestone. The company now sources 100% renewable electricity for its offices and data centers under its operational control. It is also investing in more energy-efficient buildings and improving water conservation across its global facilities.

While these actions reduce NVIDIA’s direct footprint, the larger challenge remains its global supply chain and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.

Investors Want Growthโ€”and Climate Progress

NVIDIA’s recent stock pullback has not changed its long-term outlook.

NVIDIA NVDA stock price

Most analysts still expect AI spending to remain strong over the next several years. Major cloud companies continue to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in new AI infrastructure, keeping demand for NVIDIA’s GPUs high.

However, investors are also paying closer attention to sustainability. Large institutional investors increasingly consider climate risks alongside financial performance. They want to see whether companies can keep growing while lowering emissions, improving supply chain transparency, and meeting their climate targets.

For NVIDIA, that means future success will depend on more than selling faster chips. It will also depend on making AI infrastructure more efficient and less carbon-intensive.

The Next AI Race Is About Sustainable Growth

The next phase of the AI revolution will not be measured only by computing power. It will also depend on how efficiently companies use energy, reduce emissions, and build cleaner supply chains. Governments, customers, and investors are all placing greater emphasis on sustainable growth.

NVIDIA remains well-positioned to benefit from rising AI demand. Its technology powers much of today’s AI ecosystem, and analysts continue to see strong long-term growth potential despite recent stock weakness.

At the same time, the company faces a new challenge. As AI expands, so does its environmental footprint. Meeting its science-based climate targets while supplying the hardware behind the AI boom will be one of NVIDIA’s biggest tests over the next decade.

Indonesia Targets Aviation Decarbonization With Pertamina-Boeing SAF Partnership

Indonesia is stepping up its sustainable aviation ambitions. State-owned energy company PT Pertamina (Persero) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Boeing to explore the development of a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) ecosystem in Indonesia.

The partnership aims to accelerate SAF production, strengthen the country’s clean aviation supply chain, and support Indonesia’s long-term net-zero emissions goals. It also comes as air travel across Southeast Asia is expected to grow rapidly over the next two decades, increasing demand for lower-carbon aviation fuels.

The agreement reflects Indonesia’s ambition to become a regional leader in sustainable aviation while reducing emissions from one of the world’s hardest-to-decarbonize sectors.

Pertamina and Boeing Join Forces on Indonesia’s SAF Ecosystem

Under the memorandum of understanding, Pertamina and Boeing will work together to evaluate opportunities across the entire sustainable aviation fuel value chain.

The collaboration will focus on:

  • Identifying sustainable feedstock sources
  • Assessing SAF production technologies
  • Supporting policy and regulatory development
  • Strengthening technical knowledge and workforce capabilities
  • Encouraging long-term investment in Indonesia’s SAF industry

Rather than focusing solely on fuel production, both companies aim to help build a complete SAF ecosystem that connects feedstock suppliers, refineries, airlines, policymakers, and technology providers.

According to Pertamina President Director Simon Aloysius Mantiri, the partnership represents a long-term investment in Indonesia’s clean energy future.

He said the country possesses abundant renewable feedstock resources, while Pertamina brings refining expertise and Boeing contributes decades of aviation knowledge. Together, the companies expect to accelerate the development of a competitive domestic SAF industry that supports both economic growth and aviation decarbonization.

Indonesia Has Strong Potential to Become a Regional SAF Hub

Indonesia is widely viewed as one of Southeast Asia’s most promising markets for sustainable aviation fuel.

  • According to the ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook, Indonesia ranks among the top three ASEAN countries with the largest projected SAF production surplus.
  • By 2050, the country could produce an estimated 2.2 million barrels of SAF per day, highlighting its significant long-term production potential.

Several factors support this outlook:

  • Large agricultural and forestry resources
  • Significant volumes of used cooking oil (UCO)
  • Palm oil residues and other agricultural waste
  • Existing refining infrastructure
  • Growing domestic and regional aviation markets

These advantages position Indonesia to become both a major SAF producer and exporter as airlines seek cleaner fuels to meet future climate targets.

Boeing Sees Strong Aviation Growth in Southeast Asia

The partnership also reflects Boeing’s long-term outlook for aviation demand across Southeast Asia.

The aerospace manufacturer expects passenger traffic in the region to grow by approximately 7% annually over the next two decades. To meet this demand, airlines are projected to require 4,885 new commercial aircraft by 2044.

While aviation growth supports economic development, it also increases fuel consumption and carbon emissions.

According to Indra Duivenvoorde, Managing Director of Boeing Indonesia, Indonesia is well positioned to become a leader in sustainable aviation.

He said Boeing looks forward to collaborating with Pertamina on multiple initiatives, including feedstock identification, education, workforce development, and broader SAF ecosystem growth.

The company believes these efforts can help support Indonesia’s aviation industry while contributing to national economic development.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Aviation Emissions

The aviation industry currently accounts for roughly 2โ€“3% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making it one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize.

Unlike passenger vehicles, aircraft have limited near-term alternatives to liquid fuels, especially for long-haul flights. That makes Sustainable Aviation Fuel one of the aviation industry’s most important tools for reducing emissions.

SAF is produced from renewable and waste-based feedstocks instead of fossil crude oil. Common feedstocks include:

  • Used cooking oil
  • Animal fats
  • Agricultural residues
  • Municipal solid waste
  • Forestry waste
  • Industrial waste gases
  • Future feedstocks such as algae and captured carbon

Depending on the production pathway, SAF can significantly lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional jet fuel.

  • In its pure form, known as neat SAF, the fuel can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% compared with conventional aviation fuel.

Today’s certified SAF is blended with conventional jet fuel before use and is compatible with existing aircraft engines and airport infrastructure, allowing airlines to reduce emissions without modifying current fleets.

SAF Demand

Pertamina Is Expanding Its SAF Portfolio

Pertamina has already launched several initiatives to build Indonesia’s domestic SAF industry.

These include:

  • Producing and certifying Pertamina Sustainable Aviation Fuel
  • Conducting SAF implementation with Indonesian airline Pelita Air
  • Developing the Cilacap Biorefinery project
  • Producing both Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO)

The Cilacap project is expected to utilize used cooking oil (UCO) and other waste-based renewable feedstocks rather than relying solely on virgin vegetable oils.

Using waste materials can improve the environmental performance of SAF while supporting circular economy objectives.

The refinery is expected to become an important part of Indonesia’s strategy to develop domestic renewable fuels and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Building a Complete Aviation Decarbonization Strategy

The partnership between Pertamina and Boeing is about more than producing SAF. The two companies want to build a complete SAF ecosystem in Indonesia to support cleaner aviation over the long term.

They will work together to identify sustainable feedstocks, evaluate production technologies, support government policies, develop technical expertise, and attract investment. Expanding SAF production requires more than new refineries. It also depends on reliable feedstock supplies, supportive regulations, skilled workers, and strong demand from airlines.

This effort supports the aviation industry’s broader goal of reaching net-zero emissions. Along with SAF, the sector is improving fuel efficiency, developing more efficient aircraft, optimizing flight operations, and investing in new technologies such as hydrogen and electric aircraft for shorter routes.

  • According to the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), SAF could deliver 53% to 65% of the emissions reductions needed for aviation to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, making it the industry’s most important decarbonization solution.

As air travel continues to grow across Southeast Asia, expanding domestic SAF production will improve energy security, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and help airlines meet future emissions targets.

SAF aviation emissions
Source: ATAG

Supporting Indonesia’s Net Zero Goals

The agreement aligns with Indonesia’s broader energy transition strategy and supports the country’s efforts to reach net-zero emissions by 2060.

It also supports the vision of President Prabowo Subianto, whose administration has identified cleaner energy development as a national priority.

For Pertamina, expanding renewable fuels complements the company’s wider transition strategy.

The state-owned energy company has committed to integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles across its operations while investing in cleaner fuels, renewable energy, and lower-carbon technologies.

The company views SAF as an important opportunity to reduce transportation emissions while creating new industries based on Indonesia’s abundant renewable resources.

indonesia emissions

Outlook

As airlines face growing pressure to reduce emissions, sustainable aviation fuel is expected to play a much larger role in global aviation over the coming decades.

Indonesia’s combination of abundant biomass resources, expanding refining capacity, and rapidly growing aviation market gives it a strong foundation for becoming one of Asia’s leading SAF producers.

Lastly, this collaboration could strengthen Indonesia’s position in the regional clean aviation market while helping airlines secure greater supplies of lower-carbon fuel as demand continues to rise.

CORSIA Could Face a 125 Million Carbon Credit Gap Before 2028, Says Sylvera

The global aviation industry’s main carbon offset program is at a key point. With less than two years until airlines meet their first CORSIA obligations, a new report from Sylvera warns of a potential supply shortage. This could lead to higher carbon prices and increased compliance risks.

CORSIA, launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), is the first global market-based plan for aviation emissions. Airlines must offset emissions from international flights that exceed 85% of 2019 levels. The first phase, from 2024 to 2026, addresses current emissions. However, airlines won’t need to retire eligible carbon credits until January 31, 2028.

Sylvera thinks airlines may be underestimating the challenges ahead, even if the deadline feels distant

CORSIA Demand Is Rising, But Eligible Supply Remains Scarce

By 2026, 130 countries will join CORSIA, one of the world’s largest carbon compliance systems.

Sylvera estimates that CORSIA’s first compliance phase could create demand for about 163 million eligible emissions units (EEUs). This excludes intra-European Economic Area flights already covered by the EU Emissions Trading System and smaller aviation markets. Demand could rise to 198 million credits under full implementation.

The challenge is that eligible supply is well below these numbers.

Currently, only 38 million carbon credits qualify as EEUs, covering just 23% of expected demand. Around 300 million credits have been issued, but many are stuck due to extra authorization requirements.

  • This situation leaves a supply gap of about 125 million credits.
CORSIA carbon credit
Source: Sylvera

The shortage comes from two main hurdles in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: Host-country Letters of Authorization (LoAs) and Corresponding Adjustments (CAs) or approved insurance mechanisms. Without these approvals, carbon credits can’t be used for CORSIA compliance, even if issued.

The Article 6 Bottleneck Is Slowing the Market

Article 6 rules have changed how carbon credits are used in international markets.

Host countries must formally authorize credits for international use and adjust their emissions accounting to avoid double counting. While this strengthens environmental integrity, it creates a significant administrative bottleneck.

Sylvera reports that only 24 countries have issued LoAs, and just five have reported corresponding adjustments. The company estimates that only 21% of assessed countries are likely to meet both requirements.

Even with optimistic views, the outlook remains tight.

By January 2028, potentially eligible credit volumes could reach 640 million. But considering authorization risks, likely eligible supply drops to around 104 million credits. Fully confirmed eligible supply is only about 48 million credits.

This gap makes many analysts view authorization risk as a key factor in carbon markets today.

Airlines Are Waitingโ€”But Waiting May Become Expensive

One striking finding is the low level of buying activity. Despite airlines facing compliance obligations for 2024-2026, only around 400,000 tonnes of CORSIA credits have been retiredโ€”about 0.2% of expected demand.

Many airlines are waiting for clearer signals from regulators before spending money.

However, Sylvera warns that delaying credit purchases could lead to a supply squeeze. If airlines wait until 2027 or early 2028, liquidity might dry up just as demand peaks.

This situation echoes concerns from market intelligence firm Abatable, which has warned that CORSIA demand could exceed available supply in its second phase if new projects donโ€™t enter the market.

Several Factors Could Reduce Demand

While supply issues dominate discussions, demand is also uncertain. Sylvera identifies three key factors that could lower total compliance needs.

1. Geopolitical Tensions

The report notes that ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran conflict could cut international aviation activity. This may reduce CORSIA demand by 4% to 9%. Depending on how long these disruptions last, demand could fall to between 149 million and 157 million credits.

2. Europe’s CORSIA Review

The European Commission is reviewing how CORSIA interacts with the EU ETS.

If flights from the European Economic Area shift entirely to the EU ETS, CORSIA demand could drop by about 24%, lowering it to around 123 million credits.

This review is crucial because Europe is a major source of compliance demand. Market players worry that new EU eligibility rules could shrink the pool of acceptable credits.

3. US Airline Participation

While the US is part of CORSIA, domestic enforcement remains unclear.

Sylvera estimates that if major US airlines opt out of full participation, demand could fall by roughly 18%.

Still, some airlines in Asia may continue to buy credits voluntarily. Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Singapore Airlines, and Scoot have already retired credits for future compliance.

corsia
Source: Sylvera

Carbon Credit Prices Could More Than Triple

The uncertainty around supply and demand complicates price forecasting.

Currently, CORSIA markets are thinly traded with limited transaction data. However, Sylvera’s models across 50 scenarios suggest significant upside risk.

The firm projects three possible outcomes for first-phase compliance credits:

  • Low case: about $15 per credit
  • Base case: about $33 per credit
  • High case: approximately $53 per credit by January 2028

The highest-price scenario assumes ongoing authorization bottlenecks, limited supply growth, and a late rush in airline buying. If this occurs, compliance costs could rise sharply for the aviation sector.

corsia prices
Source: Sylvera

Billions of Dollars Are at Stake

The financial stakes are certainly high. Sylvera estimates total airline exposure at around $2.4 billion under a $15-per-credit scenario. If credits hit $53, costs could soar. The top ten airlines alone might face about $3.8 billion in procurement costs.

Since compliance obligations are based on past flight activity, airlines have few options to lower their exposure. Their main strategy is timingโ€”when and how they secure credits.

The Road to 2028

Despite uncertainties, most market observers expect CORSIA to succeed.

Countries continue to develop Article 6 frameworks. Authorization systems are improving, and governments increasingly see the economic value of joining international carbon markets.

However, the next 18 months may determine if CORSIA becomes a smooth compliance market or faces a supply crunch that drives prices higher.

For airlines, project developers, and investors, Sylvera’s message is clear: the compliance deadline may be in 2028, but todayโ€™s market is already taking shape.

Xpansiv and BEClimate Launch Platform to Turn Building Upgrades Into Carbon Credits

Buildings are one of the world’s biggest sources of greenhouse gas emissions. But many projects that could cut those emissions never get built because they lack funding. A new partnership hopes to change that. BEClimate has launched the BEVerify registry with Xpansiv and Quidos to connect building decarbonization projects with carbon markets.

The platform uses digital monitoring to turn verified emissions cuts into carbon assets. This can help schools, hospitals, offices, homes, and public buildings attract new investment. The launch also signals a bigger shift. Carbon markets are expanding beyond forests and renewable energy into the buildings where people live and work.

Buildings Produce More Than One-Third of Energy-Related Emissions

Buildings play a major role in global emissions. In 2024, buildings consumed about 34% of the world’s energy. They also produced 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions linked to energy, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction.

Building operations, such as heating, cooling, lighting, and appliances, accounted for about 26% of those emissions. Building materials like cement and steel added another 11%.

buildings ghg emissions 2024

The sector is still moving too slowly. UNEP says emissions from buildings remain above pre-pandemic levels and the industry is not on track to meet global climate goals.

The challenge is clear. The World Green Building Council estimates that 80% of the buildings that will exist in 2050 have already been built. This means countries must upgrade existing buildings, not just build new green ones.ย 

The Missing Piece Is Financing

The good news is that the technology already exists. Heat pumps, better insulation, rooftop solar, efficient lighting, and smart energy controls can greatly reduce energy use.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy efficiency could deliver more than 40% of the emissions cuts needed from buildings by 2030.

The biggest barrier is funding.

Many retrofit projects need large upfront investments. The savings from lower energy bills often take years to recover those costs. Because of this, many schools, hospitals, offices, and public buildings delay or cancel energy upgrades.

BEClimate believes carbon finance can help fill this gap. Its new BEVerify registry turns verified emissions reductions into carbon assets. This gives building owners another way to earn revenue, making more projects financially viable.

Digital Monitoring Could Transform Carbon Verification

BEVerify also aims to solve another long-standing problem: slow verification.

Many carbon projects take months before credits can be verified and issued. BEVerify uses digital Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (dMRV) to monitor building performance in real time.

The company says it has already reduced the process from months to just minutes. Every emissions reduction is supported by a full digital audit trail, making the system faster and easier to verify.

BEVerify benefits
Source: BEVErify

The registry runs on Xpansiv’s cloud-based market platform. It is designed to support future compliance programs, including Article 6, CORSIA, and carbon tax systems. This gives project developers a clearer path into both voluntary and compliance carbon markets.

If the model succeeds, it could unlock new investment for millions of buildings that have long been left out of carbon markets. That would help speed up emissions cuts while making building upgrades easier to finance.

Carbon Markets Move Into the Built Environment

For years, most carbon credits came from projects such as forest conservation, reforestation, renewable energy, and methane capture. Now the market is starting to expand into new sectors, including buildings.

This shift comes as buyers look for more ways to support verified emissions reductions. At the same time, governments are strengthening climate policies and raising expectations for corporate climate action.

The opportunity is significant. The World Green Building Council says buildings must reduce operational emissions by 50% by 2030. They also need to achieve net zero by 2050 to meet global climate goals. Reaching those targets will require trillions of dollars in investment, $2.9 trillion in 2030 and $3.9 trillion in 2050, and much of it for upgrading existing buildings.

built environment net zero 2050
Source: World Green Building Council

Carbon finance could help close part of that funding gap. A new revenue source can make retrofit projects more appealing for private and public building owners.

Digital Registries Are Reshaping Carbon Markets

The launch of BEVerify also reflects a broader shift toward digital carbon markets.

Project developers are shifting from manual reporting to digital systems. These systems offer near real-time data. This improves transparency and lowers the cost of verification.

Digital monitoring is becoming more important as carbon markets grow. New compliance systems under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the aviation sector’s CORSIA program, and national carbon pricing policies all require accurate and traceable emissions data.

This is where platforms like Xpansiv can play a bigger role. The company runs one of the largest environmental trading platforms worldwide. It supports transactions for carbon credits, renewable energy certificates, and other eco-friendly commodities.

  • Connecting digital monitoring with digital registries can make carbon markets faster, more transparent, and easier to scale.

Buildings Could Become the Next Big Source of Carbon Credits

Buildings remain one of the world’s largest untapped sources of carbon reductions. Many schools, hospitals, offices, apartment buildings, and public facilities can cut emissions by:

  • improving insulation,
  • using cleaner heating systems,
  • installing efficient lighting,
  • adding rooftop solar, and
  • implementing smart energy controls.

Many of these projects already make technical sense but struggle to secure funding.

BEVerify offers a different approach. Instead of relying only on lower energy bills, building owners may also be able to generate value from verified emissions reductions. That extra income could help more projects move from planning to construction.

For buyers, the platform provides access to carbon reductions backed by measured building performance rather than estimates. This can increase confidence as demand grows for high-integrity carbon assets.

A New Financing Model for Greener Buildings

The launch of BEVerify is about more than a new carbon registry. Carbon finance is starting to help sectors that receive less focus than forestry or renewable energy.

As countries work toward net-zero emissions, upgrading existing buildings will become one of the biggest climate challenges. Meeting that challenge will require new sources of capital alongside better technology.

By combining digital monitoring, faster verification, and carbon market infrastructure, BEClimate and Xpansiv are testing a model that could unlock investment on a much larger scale.

If it succeeds, carbon markets may no longer be limited to forests and industrial projects. They could also help finance cleaner schools, hospitals, offices, and homesโ€”bringing building decarbonization into the next phase of climate action.

Google and McKinsey Secure Future Carbon Credits From Indonesia Through the Symbiosis Coalition

Global companies are changing how they buy carbon credits. Instead of waiting for credits to become available, they are investing years in advance to help new projects get started. The latest example comes from Indonesia, where Google, McKinsey & Company, and Tencent have agreed to buy a combined 635,000 tonnes of nature-based carbon removal from Thryve.Earth over the next 10 years.

The deal will help restore forests in Sulawesi while giving the project the funding it needs to grow. It also shows how demand is shifting toward high-quality carbon removal projects that deliver real climate and community benefits.

Advance Carbon Deals Are Funding Tomorrow’s Climate Projects

The agreements are supported by the Symbiosis Coalition, a group formed by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Salesforce in 2024. The coalition plans to buy up to 20 million tonnes of high-quality nature-based carbon removal by 2030. It is one of the largest buying efforts of its kind.ย 

Under the new agreements, Google and McKinsey will buy more than 335,000 tonnes of carbon removal over 10 years, 260,000 of which is from Google. Tencent will buy another 300,000 tonnes during the same period. The deal is Tencent’s first carbon removal purchase outside of China.

The tech giant noted:

“Together with Symbiosis, weโ€™re continuing to catalyze the highest-scale opportunities to restore natural ecosystems worldwide. Itโ€™s one element of our broader climate solutions portfolio, which also includes other breakthrough carbon removal projects and efforts to eliminate superpollutants.”

Randy Spock, Head of Carbon Removal at Google, stated in a post that it is the company’s largest carbon removal purchase so far. He further said that the project stands out for three main reasons:

  • It restores degraded land,
  • It supports local communities, and
  • It is designed to last.

These are forward-offtake agreements. That means the companies are buying future carbon removals instead of credits that already exist. Their long-term commitments give Thryve.Earth the confidence to raise funding and begin restoring land today.

Carbon credit offtake infographic

This model is becoming more common across the carbon market. Companies aim to ensure future supplies of high-quality carbon removals. They also want to help developers scale up projects.

Restoring Forests and Farms in Sulawesi

The project will restore about 6,000 hectares of degraded land in Sulawesi, one of Indonesia’s most important forest regions.

Instead of planting only one type of tree, Thryve.Earth will create an agroforestry system with several layers of crops and trees. Sugar palm and timber trees will form the upper canopy. Crops such as coffee, avocado, bananas, papaya, chili, and corn will grow underneath.

This approach removes carbon from the air while improving soil health, lowering wildfire risk, and increasing biodiversity. It also gives farmers several sources of income throughout the year instead of relying on a single crop.

thryve.earth sulawesi indonesia carbon project
Source: Thryve.earth

Indonesia is well-suited for projects like this. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) states that the country has around 92 million hectares of forest. This makes it one of the largest tropical forest nations in the world.

Ron Steinherz, Co-Founder and COO of Thryve.Earth, said:

โ€œTurning degraded grassland back into productive forest is, above all, an operational challenge. By pairing high-quality saplings and rigorous field protocols with verifiable monitoring of every hectare, we give our partners confidence that the carbon removals and community benefits are real, measurable, and built to last.โ€

Thryve says the agroforestry model could grow to cover 250,000 hectares of degraded land in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian areas. That would greatly increase the region’s carbon removal potential.

Demand for Trusted Carbon Removals Is Outpacing Supply

The Sulawesi project also reflects a bigger trend in the carbon market. More companies are looking for carbon removal credits instead of traditional avoidance credits.

Carbon removal projects take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, making them an important tool for reaching net-zero goals.

According to CDR.fyi, companies contracted more than 8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide removal in 2025, another record for the market. Nature-based projects still dominate purchases. They can be deployed on a larger scale and at a lower cost than engineered carbon removal.

durable cdr contracted 2025

Demand is also growing faster than supply. During its first global project search, the Symbiosis Coalition received 185 proposals from 40 countries. Those projects covered around 6.6 million hectares. They could remove over 180 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in the next ten years. However, only a small share met the coalition’s strict quality standards.

That gap shows why advance purchase agreements are becoming more important. They help finance the projects that buyers want, while increasing the future supply of trusted carbon removal credits.

Indonesia Is Emerging as a Carbon Removal Leader

Indonesia is becoming one of the world’s top markets for nature-based carbon removal.

The country has the third-largest area of tropical rainforest and about 14 million hectares of degraded land that could be restored, according to the World Bank. Restoring these landscapes can remove carbon, improve biodiversity, and strengthen rural livelihoods.

Nature-based solutions are also central to Indonesia’s climate strategy. Under its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the country aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 31.89% on its own by 2030, or by 43.2% with international support. Forest protection and land restoration are expected to deliver much of these emissions cuts.

Projects like Thryve.Earth can help achieve these goals by bringing private investment into large-scale restoration while creating jobs and supporting local farmers.

Buyers Want Better Carbon Credits

The voluntary carbon market is also changing. Companies are getting more selective. They want carbon credits supported by solid science, dependable monitoring, and clear environmental and social benefits. This follows new guidance from various bodies:

  • The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM),
  • The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI), and
  • The Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi).

Demand for nature-based projects remains strong. According to MSCI, they accounted for about 37% of all voluntary carbon credit retirements in 2024, making them the market’s largest project type.

carbon credit retirements msci
Source: MSCI

Long-Term Offtakes Could Shape the Next Carbon Market

Forward purchase agreements are becoming an important way to finance carbon removal.

Companies commit to buying future carbon removals instead of buying credits after projects are done. These long-term agreements give developers the confidence to restore land, attract investors, and expand projects.

Companies are signing record numbers of forward carbon removal agreements, CDR.fyi says. This is happening as competition increases for a limited supply of high-quality credits.

For communities, the benefits go beyond carbon. The Sulawesi project will create jobs and improve soil health. It will also reduce wildfire risk, boost biodiversity, and give farmers income from fruit, timber, and food crops. These added benefits help ensure the restored landscapes remain productive over the long term.

A New Model for Scaling Carbon Removal

The Thryve.Earth agreements represent more than 635,000 tonnes of future carbon removal. They show how the carbon market is evolving.

Large companies are moving beyond one-time carbon credit purchases and helping finance projects before they begin. This gives developers the certainty needed to scale restoration while securing future carbon removals for buyers.

Companies aiming for net-zero goals will likely see more investment in projects that merge carbon removal, protect biodiversity, and benefit communities. The latest commitments from Google, McKinsey, Tencent, and the Symbiosis Coalition suggest this shift is already underway.

Canada and Saudi Arabia Sign $1 Billion in Deals to Boost Clean Energy, Mining, and AI Partnership

Canada and Saudi Arabia have entered a new phase in their bilateral relationship, signing more than C$1 billion (US$730 million) worth of commercial agreements and launching new partnerships in clean energy, mining, artificial intelligence (AI), infrastructure, and investment.

The announcements came during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s official visit to Saudi Arabiaโ€”the first by a Canadian prime minister in 26 yearsโ€”as both countries seek to diversify their economies and strengthen cooperation in industries driving the global energy transition.

The visit produced new government agreements on energy and AI, alongside 13 commercial deals involving Canadian and Saudi companies. Together, these initiatives could create fresh opportunities for Canadian firms while supporting Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 economic transformation.

Mark Carney noted:

โ€œCanada and Saudi Arabia have both embarked on ambitious new missions to transform their economies. To that end, we are harnessing each otherโ€™s strengths across minerals and mining, technology, energy, and commerce. Canada has what the world wants. We are cultivating a dense web of new connections to diversify our trade, create new opportunities for our workers and businesses, and deliver greater security and prosperity for all Canadians.โ€

A New Chapter in Canada-Saudi Relations

Meeting in Jeddah, Prime Minister Carney and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to deepen cooperation across trade, investment, defence, education, science, and technology.

One of the key outcomes was the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishing the Canadaโ€“Saudi Arabia Coordination Council, a new platform that will oversee bilateral cooperation across strategic sectors.

The visit also reflected Canada’s broader effort to diversify exports beyond the United States while attracting new foreign investment. Carney has repeatedly emphasized the need to build stronger partnerships with fast-growing economies as global trade patterns shift.

Energy Cooperation Expands Beyond Oil

Clean energy emerged as one of the biggest winners from the visit. Canada and Saudi Arabia signed a new energy MOU aimed at attracting investment and expanding cooperation in:

  • Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
  • Renewable energy
  • Hydrogen
  • Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

The agreement seeks to combine Canada’s expertise in clean technologies and energy infrastructure with Saudi Arabia’s massive investments in low-carbon energy.

Saudi Arabia remains one of the world’s largest oil producers, but the kingdom is investing heavily to diversify its energy mix. According to Ember data, it generates 2% of its electricity from low-carbon sources.

Saudi Arabia energy

  • However, under Vision 2030, it aims for 50% of electricity generation to come from renewable energy by 2030, with the remaining half supplied by natural gas.
  • The government is targeting around 130 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade through large-scale solar and wind projects.

The kingdom is also positioning itself as a future exporter of clean hydrogen while expanding carbon capture capacity to reduce industrial emissions.

These goals require significant international investment, engineering expertise, and technologyโ€”areas where Canadian companies have decades of experience.

Rising Electricity Demand Drives Investment

Saudi Arabia’s clean energy push is also being driven by rapidly rising electricity demand.

Population growth, industrial expansion, desalination plants, new manufacturing facilities, and mega-projects such as NEOM, The Line, and other Vision 2030 developments are increasing pressure on the country’s power system.

  • Peak electricity demand has already surpassed 90 GW, and energy consumption is expected to continue rising throughout the next decade.

energy cpnsumption saudi arabia

To meet this demand while reducing emissions, Saudi Arabia is rapidly expanding utility-scale solar and wind generation, battery storage, smart grids, and energy efficiency programs.

The country has already awarded dozens of renewable energy projects through its National Renewable Energy Program, making it one of the fastest-growing clean energy markets in the Middle East.

For Canadian developers, equipment suppliers, engineering firms, and clean technology companies, this represents a significant long-term opportunity.

AI Partnership Strengthens

Artificial intelligence was another major focus of the visit. The two governments signed an MOU to increase collaboration on AI development, deployment, commercialization, and innovation.

The announcement was accompanied by a landmark private-sector agreement between Canadian AI company Cohere and Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN.

  • Under the partnership, HUMAIN will dedicate at least 50 megawatts of AI computing capacity to support Cohere’s next generation of foundation models.

The collaboration aims to develop sovereign AI capabilities while strengthening advanced computing infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, Canadian cybersecurity company BlackBerry and Aramco Digital also announced discussions to explore secure communications technologies and industrial digital solutions.

These partnerships align with Saudi Arabia’s broader ambition to become a regional leader in AI and digital infrastructure while creating new export opportunities for Canadian technology firms.

Mining Becomes a Strategic Priority

Mining also featured prominently during the visit. Among the 13 commercial agreements are partnerships that will enable Canadian companies to support Saudi Arabia’s growing mining and critical-minerals sector.

Saudi Arabia has identified mining as the third pillar of its economy, after oil and petrochemicals. The kingdom estimates its untapped mineral resourcesโ€”including gold, phosphate, copper, lithium, rare earth elements, zinc, and other critical mineralsโ€”are worth approximately US$2.5 trillion.

Developing these resources is considered essential for both economic diversification and the global clean energy transition.

Canada brings significant expertise to that effort.

According to Natural Resources Canada, the country’s mining and mineral processing industry contributed approximately C$117 billion to Canada’s GDP in 2024, representing nearly 5% of the national economy.

Canada is also among the world’s leading producers of:

  • Potash
  • Uranium
  • Nickel
  • Cobalt
  • Aluminum
  • Gold
  • Diamonds

Many of these minerals play a critical role in manufacturing batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy equipment, and advanced electronics.

Canadian mining companies are internationally recognized for exploration, engineering, environmental management, financing, and mine developmentโ€”expertise that Saudi Arabia is seeking as it expands its domestic mining industry.

canaada mining

More Than Commercial Deals

Beyond mining and energy, the agreements cover infrastructure, healthcare, education, and defence.

Canadian infrastructure companies are expected to participate in transportation projects supporting Vision 2030, including roads and railway developments.

Healthcare partnerships will introduce Canadian technologies ranging from patient monitoring systems to surgical intelligence platforms.

Educational institutions will also help train Saudi workers in skilled trades, engineering, healthcare, construction, and technology.

Together, these initiatives are designed to create long-term economic cooperation rather than increase exports.

Investment Ties Continue to Grow

The visit also laid the foundation for deeper investment flows.

Canada announced plans to lead a delegation of major pension funds to Saudi Arabia to explore investment opportunities, particularly in clean energy and AI. The two countries also agreed to conclude negotiations on a Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA) by early 2027.

In addition, negotiations have begun on a new double taxation agreement that would simplify cross-border investment for businesses operating in both countries.

Canada also confirmed it will participate in Expo 2030 Riyadh, where Canadian companies will showcase technologies in clean energy, mining, advanced manufacturing, and digital innovation.

A Partnership Built Around the Energy Transition

Although Saudi Arabia remains one of the world’s largest oil exporters, its economic transformation is creating new opportunities in renewable energy, hydrogen, carbon capture, AI, and critical minerals.

Canada, meanwhile, possesses strengths in clean technology, sustainable mining, engineering, and advanced research.

By combining those capabilities, both countries hope to unlock new investment, diversify trade, and accelerate projects supporting the global transition to lower-carbon energy.

With more than C$1 billion in new commercial agreements already announced and broader investment negotiations underway, the partnership signals that clean energy, critical minerals, and advanced technologies are becoming central pillars of Canadaโ€“Saudi Arabia economic relations.

Microsoft’s Emissions Rise 25% in 2025 as AI Expansion Tests Its Net-Zero Goals

Artificial intelligence is fueling Microsoft’s next phase of growth, but it is also increasing the company’s carbon footprint. Microsoft’s 2026 Environmental Sustainability Report reveals that its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions hit almost 20.3 million metric tons of COโ‚‚ equivalent (MtCOโ‚‚e) in fiscal year 2025. This is an increase from 16.2 MtCOโ‚‚e in 2024. That is a 25% increase in just one year.

The company says the increase shows how quickly AI and cloud infrastructure are growing. This is especially true with the building of new data centers. Microsoft still aims to be carbon negative by 2030. It also plans to remove all the carbon it has emitted since 1975 by 2050.

AI Infrastructure Is Driving Microsoft’s Emissions

Microsoft’s report shows that Scope 3 emissions remain its biggest climate challenge. These indirect emissions made up 85.82% of the company’s total carbon footprint in 2025.

The largest source was capital goods, which accounted for 44.57% of total emissions. This includes the steel, cement, servers, semiconductors, cooling systems, and other equipment needed to build AI data centers.

Purchased goods and services contributed 25.28%. Fuel and energy activities added 5.30%. Upstream transportation accounted for 3.66%.

Microsoft emissions by scope 2025
Source: Microsoft Report

The company says demand for AI services such as Azure and Copilot is driving a wave of global infrastructure investment. Building these facilities causes a lot of emissions even before they start. This is because making cement, steel, and computer chips uses a lot of carbon.

Another change came from Microsoft’s electricity strategy. Scope 2 emissions increased to about 13% of total emissions, compared with around 2% a year earlier.

The tech giant said this reflects a shift away from buying renewable energy certificates that do not add new clean power to the grid. Instead, Microsoft is investing in new carbon-free electricity projects that deliver a greater long-term climate benefit.

The Increase Is Part of a Long-Term Transition

Microsoft argues that today’s higher emissions are linked to building tomorrow’s lower-carbon economy. The company stated:ย 

“Our results reflect both progress and pressure. As we scale the physical infrastructure required to power the AI economy, our emissions are shaped by the impact of that growth and the actions we are taking to manage it.”

Microsoft ghg emissions 2025
Source: Microsoft

The company expects emissions from construction and supply chains to decrease over time. This will happen as suppliers use cleaner manufacturing, low-carbon materials become more available, and electricity grids add more renewable power.

The wider industry faces the same challenge. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that electricity demand from data centers will more than double by 2030. This surge is due to the faster adoption of AI. Manufacturing steel, cement, and electronic equipment for these facilities also causes a lot of global industrial emissions.

Microsoft says it is working directly with suppliers to lower those emissions. The company is testing green steel, lower-carbon concrete, and hybrid mass timber. These materials can cut the embodied carbon in some data centers by up to 35%. It is also using new steel products that can cut emissions by as much as 95% compared with conventional steel production.

Microsoft Doubles Down on Climate Action

Even as its emissions rise, Microsoft continues to expand one of the world’s largest corporate climate programs.

The company remains committed to becoming carbon negative by 2030. In fiscal year 2025, it contracted projects to remove over 45 million metric tons of carbon. This includes 29 projects across five continents and 10 carbon removal pathways. These include:

  • direct air capture (DAC),
  • biochar,
  • enhanced rock weathering,
  • reforestation, and
  • bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Microsoft also reported progress beyond carbon. It achieved a 92% reuse and recycling rate for cloud servers and components for the second year in a row, exceeding its 90% target. The company also became water positive during the year by replenishing more water than it consumed.

These results highlight the challenge many technology companies now face. AI is increasing emissions in the short term because of massive infrastructure investments. Companies are putting billions into clean energy, carbon removal, and lower-carbon supply chains. This investment helps them meet their long-term climate goals.

Renewables and Carbon Removal Expand at Record Pace

Microsoft is backing its climate goals with large investments.

The company now has more than 40 gigawatts (GW) of contracted renewable energy across 26 countries. This portfolio includes solar, wind, and other clean power projects that help reduce emissions from its operations while supporting cleaner electricity grids.

Microsoft clean energy portfolio

Carbon removal is another key part of its strategy. According to CDR.fyi, Microsoft remains the world’s largest corporate buyer of carbon removal. Its growing portfolio features nature-based projects and engineered solutions. These include direct DAC and BECCS.

The company says it is also working with suppliers to cut emissions before products reach its data centers. Microsoft encourages manufacturers to use renewable electricity through its Supplier Code of Conduct and sustainability programs. They also promote better energy efficiency and lower-carbon materials.

Can AI Help Cut Future Emissions?

Although AI is increasing emissions today, Microsoft believes the technology can also help reduce emissions across the global economy.

The company is creating AI tools for various purposes. These tools will improve energy management, optimize power grids, and monitor forests. They will also reduce industrial waste and help businesses track their carbon footprints. These applications could lower emissions in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, and buildings.

The IEA shares a similar view. It says AI can improve the efficiency of electricity systems, speed up renewable energy integration, and support better energy planning. These benefits depend on how fast electricity grids clean up and how well future data centers run.

This means the climate impact of AI will depend not only on better software, but also on cleaner power, stronger supply chains, and continued investment in low-carbon infrastructure.

Investors Focus on Growth Amid Emissions Increase

The sustainability report received attention, but it did not become the main driver of Microsoft’s (MSFT) share or stock price movement.

Microsoft MSFT stock price

Instead, investors remained focused on the company’s AI business. Microsoft continues to expand Azure, Copilot, and its broader AI ecosystem, which many analysts see as major sources of future revenue.

The report showed that the company is investing significantly to reduce its environmental impact. It is not backing away from its climate commitments. For many investors, the main question is whether Microsoft can keep growing AI and lower emissions over the next decade.

That balance will likely become an increasingly important measure of long-term corporate performance.

AI Is Reshaping the Net-Zero Journey

Microsoft’s latest report highlights a challenge facing the entire technology sector.

Building AI infrastructure creates emissions today because it requires large amounts of steel, cement, semiconductors, and electricity. Those emissions may continue to rise in the near term as companies expand their data center networks.

At the same time, technology companies are investing at record levels in renewable energy, cleaner supply chains, and carbon removal. The goal is to reduce the carbon intensity of future growth rather than slow innovation.

Microsoft’s results show that reaching net zero is unlikely to follow a straight path. Short-term emissions may increase as companies build the infrastructure needed for an AI-powered economy.

The long-term success of those climate strategies will depend on whether investments in clean electricity, low-carbon materials, and carbon removal can outpace that growth.

For now, Microsoft’s report offers one of the clearest examples yet of the trade-offs between rapid AI expansion and corporate climate goals. It also shows why transparency will be just as important as ambition as companies work toward a net-zero future.

From Oil to Renewables: How MENA Is Reshaping the Global Energy Future

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is rapidly transforming from a fossil fuel-dominated region into one of the world’s fastest-growing clean energy markets. Governments are investing heavily in solar, wind, and green hydrogen while setting ambitious climate targets that are reshaping their long-term energy strategies.

The region’s combination of abundant sunshine, strong wind resources, competitive project costs, and supportive government policies is attracting billions of dollars in investment. As renewable projects move from planning to construction, MENA is positioning itself as a global leader in the clean energy transition.

Renewable Targets Are Driving a Regional Energy Shift

Climate ambition across MENA has accelerated significantly over the past few years. According to the International Energy Forum’s (IEF) Progress Report for MENA NDCs and Climate Action, most countries in the region have strengthened their renewable energy commitments under their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

As of 2024, 14 MENA countries had included explicit renewable energy targets in their climate plans. Twelve countries expressed these goals as a share of electricity generation, with many aiming for renewable electricity to account for at least 30% of their power mix by 2030. Four countries instead adopted capacity-based targets measured in gigawatts (GW).

Beyond their 2030 commitments, many governments have also introduced long-term strategies extending to 2050. These plans include net-zero emissions goals and higher renewable energy shares, signaling that clean electricity is becoming a central pillar of national economic development rather than simply a climate initiative.

Although each country follows its own pathway depending on its resources and existing energy system, the overall direction is consistent. Governments are working to diversify electricity generation, improve energy security, reduce emissions, and create new industries that support long-term economic growth.

Together, these commitments represent a structural shift in how the region plans its future energy system.

mena renewable outlook
Source: IEF

Solar Leads an Unprecedented Expansion

Solar power has become the engine behind MENA’s renewable energy growth.

  • The IEF estimates the region could install between 220 GW and 450 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity by 2035, allowing solar to provide roughly 25% of regional electricity generation.

This rapid expansion is supported by some of the world’s most competitive renewable energy markets. Public auctions held across the region have consistently produced record-low electricity prices.

In 2024, utility-scale solar projects achieved prices between $10 and $13 per megawatt-hour, while onshore wind projects secured bids ranging from $16 to $17 per megawatt-hour.

Several factors explain these exceptionally low costs:

  • Excellent solar irradiation across desert regions
  • Large-scale project development
  • Long-term power purchase agreements
  • Strong government support that lowers investment risk

The region is also home to several of the world’s largest renewable energy developments. Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, for example, is expanding toward 5 GW of installed capacity, demonstrating how MENA countries are building renewable projects at a scale rarely seen elsewhere.

Solar MENA
Source: IEF

Project Pipeline Shows Strong Momentum

Recent data from Dii Desert Energy indicates that the region has entered what it describes as an “exponential growth phase.”

Operational renewable capacity reached 43.7 GW by the end of 2025, while the total development pipeline climbed to approximately 202 GW. This growing pipeline places the region much closer to achieving its renewable energy ambitions for 2030.

Renewable energy mena
Source: dii-desertenergy

Solar continues to dominate the expansion.

Installed solar PV capacity increased to 34.5 GW by the end of 2025, representing a sharp rise compared with previous years. Even more impressive is the development pipeline, where solar accounts for roughly 130 GW of future capacity.

Together, these figures suggest that renewable deployment across MENA is accelerating rather than slowing, with utility-scale projects driving most of the growth.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Are Setting the Pace

Several countries are emerging as regional leaders, but Saudi Arabia has become the primary growth engine.

  • The kingdom nearly tripled its renewable capacity within a single year, increasing operational capacity to 11.7 GW.
  • Massive investments, supported by the country’s Vision 2030 strategy, continue to drive renewable deployment at an unprecedented pace.

Saudi Arabia also boasts some of the world’s lowest renewable electricity costs, helping attract both domestic and international investors.

The United Arab Emirates remains another major clean energy leader.

Construction is underway on a groundbreaking 5.2 GW solar project paired with 19 GWh of battery storage, designed to provide 1 GW of continuous baseload renewable electricity. The project demonstrates how large-scale battery storage is becoming an essential component of the region’s renewable energy strategy by improving grid reliability and reducing dependence on conventional power generation.

Wind Energy Continues to Gain Ground

Although solar dominates new installations, wind energy is steadily expanding across the region. Operational wind capacity reached 7.4 GW, while another 65 GW remains under development.

  • Egypt currently leads MENA with more than 3 GW of installed wind capacity, followed by Morocco with approximately 2.4 GW.

Much of the recent growth came from Egypt, where two major projects entered operation during 2025.

The Amunet Wind Farm added 505 MW, while the Red Sea Wind Energy Phase II project reached its full 650 MW capacity. Morocco also expanded its renewable portfolio by completing the 60 MW Dakhla Desalination Wind Farm.

  • Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia is expected to become one of the largest wind markets in the region. Several major projects have already secured financing, including the 2 GW Starah Wind Project and the 1 GW Shaqra Wind Project. Both developments are expected to begin operations between late 2027 and early 2028.

Although wind deployment is progressing more slowly than solar, the growing pipeline indicates that it will remain an important part of MENA’s diversified renewable energy mix.

solar and wind mena
Source: dii-desertenergy

Green Hydrogen Is Becoming the Next Growth Opportunity

Beyond electricity generation, MENA is increasingly positioning itself as a future global supplier of clean hydrogen.

The International Energy Forum notes that hydrogen has become a central feature of regional climate strategies since 2022. Governments increasingly view hydrogen as both a decarbonization tool and an opportunity to build entirely new export industries.

Hydrogen can help reduce emissions in sectors that are difficult to electrify, including steel production, chemicals, aviation, shipping, and heavy industry. It can also improve energy storage and strengthen long-term energy security.

Green hydrogen, produced using renewable electricity and electrolysis, dominates regional plans. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), more than 85% of announced hydrogen capacity across MENA involves green hydrogen projects.

However, several Gulf countries are also investing in blue hydrogen, which combines natural gas with carbon capture technologies. Policymakers see blue hydrogen as a practical transition pathway that can generate export revenues while renewable electricity capacity continues expanding.

Today, 17 MENA countries have launched hydrogen-related initiatives through national strategies, pilot projects, partnerships, or memoranda of understanding.

  • Many governments envision producing between 5 million and 10 million tonnes of clean hydrogen annually by 2040, aligning these plans with broader net-zero commitments extending to 2050.
Green hydrogen mena
Source: dii-desertenergy

Projects Are Advancing, but Challenges Remain

Despite ambitious announcements, commercial hydrogen deployment remains in its early stages. According to Dii Desert Energy, only two pilot projects are currently operational across the region. Both are located in the UAE.

DEWA Green Hydrogen Pilot Plant

The first is the DEWA Green Hydrogen Pilot Plant, which operates a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer. The second is the Masdarโ€“Emirates Steel demonstration project, which uses green hydrogen to produce low-carbon steel.

By the end of 2025, only five hydrogen projects had reached financial close and moved into construction or early implementation.

NEOM Green Hydrogen Project

The flagship project remains Saudi Arabia’s NEOM Green Hydrogen Project, currently about 80% complete. Scheduled for commissioning during the first quarter of 2027, the facility will become the world’s largest green hydrogen project.

The project combines 4 GW of dedicated solar and wind power with 2.2 GW of electrolyzers to produce approximately 1.2 million tonnes of green ammonia annually, creating one of the largest renewable-powered industrial complexes ever developed.

saudi arabia neom
Source: IEF

Ambition Is High, but Execution Must Accelerate

While long-term goals remain impressive, implementation has not kept pace.

Current estimates place MENA’s planned electrolyzer capacity between 200 GW and 230 GW, although much of this is concentrated within a handful of mega-projects. The 17 largest projects alone account for approximately 118 GW of proposed capacity.

Developers are also scaling back some of the earliest announcements to improve project feasibility. Mauritania’s Project Megaton Moon, for instance, was originally proposed at 35 GW but has since been reduced to 6 GW, reflecting more realistic financing and construction timelines.

Regional hydrogen strategies still target around 10 million tonnes of annual clean hydrogen production by 2030, with green hydrogen expected to contribute the majority of output.

However, progress has been slower than expected. Limited final investment decisions, financing delays, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure challenges have pushed back several projects. As each year passes without significant construction activity, achieving the 2030 production target becomes increasingly difficult.

Even so, MENA’s overall clean energy trajectory remains firmly upward. Rapid solar deployment, expanding wind capacity, competitive renewable electricity costs, and growing hydrogen investments are steadily reshaping the region’s energy landscape.

$500M Wind-Powered Ships Could Transform Green Hydrogen Production

Green hydrogen could play a major role in cutting emissions from heavy industry, shipping, and aviation. However, producing it remains expensive because it requires large amounts of renewable electricity and costly infrastructure. A new project aims to change that.

UK-based DRIFT Energy plans to deploy more than 50 wind-powered sailing vessels that will produce green hydrogen at sea instead of on land. With a $500 million investment from Commenda Capital Partners, this initiative could provide a new method for producing clean hydrogen and reduce costs.

Ben Medland, CEO of DRIFT Energy, remarked:

“Securing this financing framework with Commenda Capital is an important step in proving that DRIFTโ€™s model is not only visionary, but bankable and scalable. It positions us to lead the deployment of the worldโ€™s first energy-harvesting vessels and to show how clean energy can be produced offshore and delivered directly to end users.”

Sailboats Could Become Floating Hydrogen Plants

DRIFT Energy is developing sailing vessels that use wind power to produce green hydrogen while at sea.

Each vessel will generate electricity using underwater turbines that spin as the boat moves through the water. That electricity powers an onboard electrolyzer, which splits desalinated seawater into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is compressed and stored onboard before being delivered to ports.

Unlike conventional offshore wind projects, the vessels do not need fixed foundations, undersea cables, or hydrogen pipelines. Instead, the boats sail to areas with strong winds, produce hydrogen, and transport it back to shore.

The company claims this method could lower capital costs and transmission losses. It also enables hydrogen production in remote areas where traditional offshore setups canโ€™t reach.

To speed up deployment, DRIFT Energy has signed a $500 million framework agreement with Commenda Capital Partners. The financing will help build at least 50 vessels. This makes it one of the largest planned fleets for offshore hydrogen production.

Green Hydrogen Demand Is Rising, but Supply Still Lags

The project comes as demand for green hydrogen continues to increase. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydrogen demand reached almost 100 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024 and is expected to surpass that milestone in 2025.

low-emissions hydrogen production IEA
Source: IEA

However, only around 1 million tonnes came from low-emissions hydrogen, such as green and blue hydrogen. Most hydrogen is still produced from natural gas and coal, creating significant carbon emissions.

The IEA estimates that hydrogen production emits about 900 million tonnes of COโ‚‚ each year. Thatโ€™s roughly the same as the yearly emissions of a large industrialized country.

Governments want to change that. Over 60 countries have adopted hydrogen strategies, says the Hydrogen Council. The challenge is turning those plans into commercial projects that can produce hydrogen at competitive prices.

The Cost Barrier Holding Green Hydrogen Back

Green hydrogen is produced using renewable electricity, making it one of the cleanest fuels available. It can take the place of fossil fuels in hard-to-electrify areas. This includes steel, chemicals, shipping, aviation, and heavy transport.

The problem is cost. BloombergNEF reports that the cost of producing green hydrogen will decrease less than what others initially estimated.ย 

green hydrogen cost

Moreover, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that renewable electricity makes up about 60% to 70% of the cost to produce green hydrogen. Developers must also invest in electrolyzers, transmission lines, pipelines, storage facilities, and export terminals.

These costs have slowed adoption, even as governments increase support.

DRIFT Energy believes producing hydrogen directly at sea could remove some of the most expensive parts of the supply chain. The company transports hydrogen from offshore wind farms to land. It uses the same vessels that produce the hydrogen.

If successful, the model could make green hydrogen more competitive while opening new renewable energy resources far from existing power grids.

Why Green Hydrogen Matters for Net-Zero Goals

Green hydrogen will be key in reducing emissions from industries that can’t easily switch to electricity.

The IEA says that by 2050, hydrogen could supply around 10% of global final energy use in a net-zero scenario. It can replace fossil fuels in steelmaking, fertilizer production, chemicals, shipping, and aviation. It also works for other heavy industries.

global hydrogen demand net zero
Source: IEA

Shipping alone shows why cleaner fuels are needed. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) estimates that shipping produces about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. As global trade grows, demand for low-carbon marine fuels is also expected to increase.

Green hydrogen can be made into fuels like green ammonia and green methanol. These are top choices for low-carbon shipping.

DRIFT Energy aims to produce hydrogen at sea to help supply growing markets and cut the need for expensive onshore infrastructure.

Billions Are Flowing Into the Hydrogen Economy

Despite high costs, investment in green hydrogen continues to grow.

The Hydrogen Council reports that global hydrogen investments will exceed $680 billion by 2030. Only a small number of these projects have reached the final investment decision stage. This shows that financing and project economics are still major challenges.

global hydrogen in numbers
Source: Hydrogen Council and McKinsey Report

Governments are also stepping up support. The International Energy Agency reports that over 60 countries now have national hydrogen strategies. At the same time, the capacity for electrolyzer manufacturing is growing.

Technology is also improving. The IEA estimates that global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity now exceeds 25 gigawatts (GW) per year. As production scales up, equipment costs are expected to fall, making green hydrogen more affordable.

Projects that lower infrastructure costs could help speed up commercial deployment.

Floating Hydrogen Could Open New Renewable Resources

One of the biggest advantages of DRIFT Energy’s approach is flexibility.

Traditional offshore wind farms can only operate where transmission cables and grid connections are available. Floating hydrogen vessels are different. They can sail to areas with stronger and more consistent winds, produce hydrogen there, and return to port when their storage tanks are full.

This allows developers to capture renewable energy that would otherwise go unused.

The concept could also reduce the need for new pipelines, transmission lines, and export terminals. These facilities often account for a large share of project costs and can take years to build.

The technology is still new, but plans for over 50 vessels show rising confidence that offshore hydrogen production might soon be commercially viable.

A New Direction for the Hydrogen Industry

The DRIFT Energy project is more than an experiment with sailing vessels. It challenges how green hydrogen is produced and transported.

Instead of bringing electricity to hydrogen plants, the company brings hydrogen production to where renewable energy is strongest. If the model works at scale, it could lower costs, expand clean fuel production, and make better use of offshore wind resources.

The global hydrogen industry still faces major hurdles. Costs remain high, and most hydrogen today is still made from fossil fuels. But new ideas like floating hydrogen production show that the industry is looking beyond traditional solutions.

As countries work toward net-zero emissions, projects that combine renewable energy with lower-cost hydrogen production could play an important role in supplying clean fuel for heavy industry, shipping, and other hard-to-abate sectors.