Toyota (TM Stock) Bucks the EV Slowdown as Electrified Sales Surge Nearly 40%

Toyota is showing that electrification can drive growth even as parts of the U.S. electric vehicle market slow. The Japanese automaker sold 117,215 electrified vehicles in the United States in September 2026, up 37.8% from a year earlier. Electrified vehicles accounted for 58.2% of Toyota Motor North America’s total September sales.

The result came as sales of Toyota’s gasoline-only vehicles fell sharply. Yet, total sales still increased 8.4% to 201,306 vehicles, outperforming the roughly 6.5% industry increase forecast by Cox Automotive.

The numbers highlight Toyota’s different approach to electrification. Rather than relying mainly on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), Toyota has built a broad lineup of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, BEVs and fuel-cell vehicles.

That strategy is now producing measurable sales growth.

Electrified Vehicles Are Driving Toyotaโ€™s U.S. Growth

Toyota’s September results were led by its electrified lineup. The company sold 117,215 electrified vehicles, up 32,125 units from September 2025. For the third quarter, electrified vehicle sales reached 363,367, up 28.5% year over year and representing 57.4% of total sales.

Toyota’s overall third-quarter sales reached 633,223 vehicles, up just 0.6%. That means electrified vehicles accounted for most of the company’s sales growth during the quarter.

The Toyota division sold 104,105 electrified vehicles in September, up 36.6%. Lexus added another 13,110, up 47.4%. Toyota also ended September with 32 electrified vehicle options across its Toyota and Lexus brands.

The contrast with conventional vehicles is significant. Toyota’s gasoline-powered sales fell 16.5% in September, according to reporting based on the company’s sales data. The figures suggest that electrification is increasingly supporting Toyota’s sales even when demand for traditional powertrains weakens.

Hybrids Are Doing Much of the Heavy Lifting

Toyota’s definition of “electrified” includes more than battery-electric vehicles. Its lineup includes conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery-electric vehicles, and fuel-cell vehicles. This gives the company a broader base for capturing consumers who want lower fuel consumption without moving immediately to a fully electric vehicle.

toyota Vehicle electrification milestones
Source: Toyota

Andrew Gilleland, senior vice president, Automotive Operations Group, Toyota Motor North America, noted:

โ€œOur third-quarter results reinforce a simple truthโ€”customers want choices. From affordability to electrification, our multi-path strategy continues to meet customers where they are and give them options that fit their lifestyles.ย  With solid momentum and disciplined inventory heading into Q4, weโ€™re well-positioned to finish the year strong.โ€

That approach is particularly relevant in the U.S., where EV adoption has faced affordability and policy challenges.

The International Energy Agency estimates that electric cars accounted for just under 10% of U.S. car sales in 2025, compared with 25% globally. Global electric car sales exceeded 20 million units in 2025, up 20% from 2024.

Toyota’s results show that consumers can still shift toward electrified powertrains even when BEV adoption is slower.

The company’s June results had already shown the trend. Toyota sold 122,063 electrified vehicles in the U.S. that month, up 35%, while second-quarter electrified sales reached 383,091, up 19.5%. The September figures indicate that momentum continued into the third quarter.

Toyota Is Closing the Gap With GM

The electrification-led sales growth is also helping Toyota gain ground on General Motors in the U.S. Toyota sold 633,223 vehicles in the third quarter, compared with GM’s 670,974. GM’s sales fell 5.5%, while Toyota’s edged up 0.6%.

Toyota therefore trailed GM by only about 37,751 vehicles during the quarter.

Cox Automotive said Toyota was gaining market share as consumers shifted toward hybrids and passenger cars, areas where Asian automakers have maintained a strong position. Toyota’s growth is notable because its strategy does not depend solely on BEV sales.

It has continued investing in hybrids while expanding its battery electric lineup. This gives the company multiple ways to respond to changes in fuel prices, consumer preferences, incentives, and emissions regulations.

The approach also gives Toyota time to expand its BEV business while maintaining sales from its established hybrid franchise.

Global EV Sales Are Still Growing

Toyota’s results come against a global backdrop of continued EV expansion. The IEA expects global electric car sales to reach about 23 million vehicles in 2026, representing roughly 28% of total car sales. Europe is projected to see EV sales increase about 20%, taking electric vehicles to approximately one-third of new-car sales.

China’s electric car share is expected to approach 60% this year. However, growth is becoming less uniform.

Global EV sales were about 3.9 million in the first quarter of 2026, down 8% from the same period in 2025. The decline was largely linked to weaker sales in China and the U.S. following policy changes. Europe moved in the opposite direction, with first-quarter EV sales rising close to 30% year over year.

March-2026-EV-sales europe from BMI

The IEA also expects the number of electric-car models available globally to exceed 1,100 in 2026, with about 150 new electric models announced for the year. That means competition is increasing even as the overall market expands.ย 

Toyota Is Planning a Bigger Electrified Mix

Toyota’s own forecasts show that electrification will become a larger part of its global sales. For fiscal 2027, Toyota forecasts 10.5 million Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales, broadly flat from fiscal 2026.

But it expects electrified vehicle sales to rise from 5.04 million to 5.956 million units. That would increase the electrified share from 48.1% to 56.7%.

The forecast includes:

  • 5.071 million hybrids, up from 4.620 million.
  • 286,000 plug-in hybrids, up from 175,000.
  • 598,000 BEVs, up from 243,000.

Toyota expects total electrified sales to approach 6 million vehicles in fiscal 2027. It also expects hybrid sales to exceed 5 million for the first time.

The numbers show where Toyota sees near-term demand. Hybrids remain the largest part of the strategy, while BEV sales are expected to more than double.

The Sales Surge Also Supports Toyotaโ€™s Climate Strategy

Toyota’s broader environmental strategy is built around its Environmental Challenge 2050, which includes six targets covering carbon emissions, water, circularity and biodiversity.

The company aims to achieve carbon neutrality across the vehicle lifecycle by 2050. In North America, Toyota aims to make all facilities carbon neutral by 2035.

Toyota reported a 32% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse-gas emissions from its North American operations compared with FY2019 as of FY2025.

Toyota carbon neutrality net zero 2050 goal
Source: Toyota

It is also increasing renewable electricity use. At the end of FY2025, 114 participating Toyota dealerships had reduced their use of electricity from nonrenewable sources by 20% through the company’s environmental program.

Electrified vehicles form an important part of this strategy because they can reduce tailpipe emissions compared with conventional vehicles. However, Toyota’s multi-pathway approach also reflects the different infrastructure and energy conditions across markets.

Toyota Stock Reflects a More Complicated EV Story

Toyota’s electrification gains have not translated into a sustained rise in its U.S.-listed shares.

Toyota Stock TM

Toyota Motor’s NYSE-listed ADR closed at $183.10 on September 30, down 1.93% that day. It closed at $183.34 on October 1 and $181.49 on October 2. The stock had been trading near $198 in early September, putting it roughly 9% below its September 11 close by October 2.

The movement reflects broader concerns around the global auto market, including tariffs, China competition, fuel prices, interest rates, and changing EV policies. Still, Toyota’s sales data offer a different signal.

The company’s electrified vehicles are gaining share even as the broader U.S. auto market faces uneven EV demand. Its third-quarter electrified sales rose nearly 29%, while total sales were almost flat.

Toyota EV sales q3 2026

Hybrids Put Toyota on a Different EV Growth Path

Toyota’s latest U.S. results show a different path through the global auto industry’s transition.ย Globally, EV adoption continues to expand. The IEA expects electric vehicles to represent 28% of global car sales in 2026, with roughly 23 million electric cars sold.

Toyota’s own forecast points to nearly 6 million electrified vehicle sales in fiscal 2027, including almost 600,000 BEVs. The figures suggest Toyota’s electrification strategy is broadening rather than shifting entirely toward battery-electric vehicles.

For now, hybrids remain the company’s largest electrified segment. But with BEV sales forecast to more than double, Toyota is also increasing its exposure to the fastest-changing part of the automotive market. That combination is helping the automaker buck the recent U.S. EV slowdown while keeping its longer-term carbon neutrality targets in focus.

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 Deliveries Beat Analystsโ€™ Expectations, But BYD Widens EV Lead

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered more vehicles than Wall Street expected in the third quarter of 2026, giving investors a reason to turn more positive on the electric vehicle makerโ€™s near-term outlook.

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, beating the company-compiled analyst consensus of 461,974. Deliveries also rose 1.3% from 480,126 vehicles in Q2. However, they remained 2.1% below the 497,099 vehicles delivered in Q3 2025.

The stronger-than-expected result helped Tesla stock rebound. Shares closed at $370.59 on October 2, up 4.7% in the session. Reuters reported that the stock gained more than 5% earlier in trading after the delivery figures were released.

tesla stock TSLA
Source: Yahoo Finance

Still, Tesla faces a growing challenge from Chinese EV giant BYD. BYDโ€™s battery-electric vehicle sales continued to pull further ahead of Tesla during the quarter.

Tesla Q3 Deliveries Beat Estimates

Teslaโ€™s Q3 delivery result came in well above the latest company-compiled consensus.

Analysts surveyed by Tesla had expected 461,974 deliveries, with a median estimate of 463,406. Tesla ultimately delivered 486,532 vehicles, exceeding the consensus by about 24,600 vehicles.

The Model 3 and Model Y remained the companyโ€™s main volume drivers. Tesla delivered 478,237 Model 3/Y vehicles during the quarter, compared with just 8,295 deliveries across its other models.

Production, meanwhile, reached 464,391 vehicles.

Tesla also deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products during Q3. That figure was below the 15.9 GWh analyst consensus, highlighting that Teslaโ€™s energy business remains an important part of the companyโ€™s broader growth story.

The delivery beat is significant because analysts had entered the quarter expecting a decline. FactSet estimates cited by MarketWatch had pointed to roughly 461,000 vehicles, or a 7% year-over-year decline.

Instead, Tesla limited the decline to about 2%.

tesla tsla ev
Source: Tesla

Tesla vs. BYD: The EV Gap Is Growing

Despite Teslaโ€™s better-than-expected quarter, its competition with BYD is becoming more intense.

BYD sold 762,478 battery-electric passenger vehicles during Q3, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. That was up nearly 31% from a year earlier and 37% from Q2.

As a result, BYD sold about 275,946 more battery-electric vehicles than Tesla during the quarter.

The comparison needs some context. Tesla reports deliveries of its vehicles, while BYD sells both battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids under its broader new-energy vehicle category.

BYD sold 1.32 million new-energy vehicles in Q3, including both types. Total NEV sales rose 18.8% year over year.

BYD also recorded 463,561 new-energy vehicle sales in September alone, its strongest monthly result of 2026. Overseas passenger vehicle and pickup shipments jumped 153.9% year over year to 179,877 in September, Reuters reported.

BYD vs tesla
Source: CNeV

This international expansion could become increasingly important for the global EV market. It also shows how competition is moving beyond traditional EV strongholds as Chinese manufacturers expand into overseas markets.

Sustainability Remains a Key Part of Teslaโ€™s Story

Teslaโ€™s delivery numbers also matter from a sustainability perspective because more EV sales can accelerate the shift away from gasoline-powered vehicles.

The International Energy Agency said global electric car sales exceeded 20 million in 2025, with EVs accounting for one in four new cars sold worldwide. China remained the largest EV market, accounting for six out of 10 electric cars sold globally.

IEA EV sales
Source: IEA
  • Tesla says its products helped avoid 37 million metric tons of COโ‚‚e emissions in its 2025 Impact Report. The companyโ€™s sustainability strategy also extends beyond vehicles to battery storage, solar energy, and its supply chain.

The company also highlighted the emissions benefit of its electric vehicles over their operating lives. It estimates that one Tesla vehicle can avoid about 32 metric tons of COโ‚‚ emissions over its lifetime compared with a comparable gasoline-powered vehicle. However, the actual benefit varies by factors such as electricity generation, vehicle efficiency, and driving patterns.

tesla emission
Source: Tesla

However, EV growth does not eliminate the environmental impact of manufacturing. Batteries require minerals such as lithium, nickel, graphite, and other materials, while vehicle production and electricity generation also create emissions.

That makes the growth of energy storage particularly relevant. Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of storage products in Q3, while the company-compiled analyst consensus had expected 15.9 GWh.

Large-scale batteries can help integrate renewable power into electricity systems by storing electricity when supply is high and releasing it when demand rises.

Can Teslaโ€™s Q3 Delivery Beat Support Its Stock?

Tesla stock entered October under pressure after a volatile year. Shares closed at $370.59 on October 2, although the latest delivery beat provided some relief.

Investors are now looking beyond vehicle sales. Teslaโ€™s valuation increasingly depends on its plans for robotaxis, AI, robotics and energy storage, while its automotive business remains critical to funding those investments.

Tesla will report its full Q3 financial results on October 21. The earnings report should give investors a clearer view of vehicle margins, revenue, cash flow, and spending on its next-generation businesses.

For now, the delivery beat strengthens Teslaโ€™s near-term position. However, BYDโ€™s growing lead in battery-electric vehicle sales highlights the competitive pressure facing Tesla as global EV adoption accelerates.

The longer-term sustainability opportunity remains significant, but Tesla must balance EV growth with improving manufacturing efficiency, battery supply chains and the emissions impact of its operations.

Amazon, Constellation Back $3 Billion Nuclear Expansion at Marylandโ€™s Calvert Cliffs

Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Constellation Energy (Nasdaq: CEG) have signed a 20-year power agreement to support the expansion and continued operation of the Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant in Maryland.

The agreement will help fund more than $3 billion in upgrades across the facility and add about 190 megawatts (MW) of new emissions-free generating capacity. The additional power is expected to come online between 2030 and 2032.

The deal comes as large technology companies seek more reliable electricity to support growing data center and artificial intelligence demand.

The EIA estimates data center servers already accounted for about 7% of U.S. commercial electricity consumption in 2025. By 2050, server electricity use could reach 446โ€“818 billion kWh, depending on how quickly data center power demand grows.

us data center

The Deal Supports 190 MW Nuclear Capacity Increase

Calvert Cliffs currently has 1,790 MW of generating capacity, making it Marylandโ€™s only nuclear power plant and its largest source of clean electricity.

  • Under the new agreement, Amazon will purchase 690 MW of power through a 20-year arrangement with Constellation. The deal includes the planned 190 MW uprate, which will increase the plantโ€™s output without requiring construction of an entirely new reactor.

Constellation plans to use the investment to modernize equipment and infrastructure throughout the plant. The company also expects Amazon’s long-term revenue commitment to support the process of relicensing Calvert Cliffs for another 20 years.

The companies have also signed a separate retail electricity supply agreement covering Amazonโ€™s operations across the 13-state PJM power market.

Importantly, the electricity generated at Calvert Cliffs will continue to enter the PJM regional grid. Amazon will not receive electricity directly from the plant. Instead, its long-term commitment helps support the economics of maintaining and expanding generation that serves the wider electricity system.

Calvert Cliffs Strengthens Marylandโ€™s Power Supply

Calvert Cliffs plays an important role in Marylandโ€™s electricity system. Constellation says the plant produces about 80% of the stateโ€™s clean energy and generates enough electricity to serve more than 1.3 million homes.

The facility also supports more than 800 jobs and contributes approximately $21 million in annual taxes for public services, including schools and roads.

The planned expansion will therefore affect more than the plantโ€™s electricity output. The investment will support upgrades at an existing nuclear facility while helping maintain its workforce and local economic contribution.

Constellation also sees the site as a potential location for future clean energy projects. The company said Amazonโ€™s long-term commitment will help it move forward with additional clean energy development at Calvert Cliffs.

U.S. Nuclear Power Remains a Major Electricity Source

The Calvert Cliffs agreement comes as nuclear power continues to provide a significant share of U.S. electricity.

  • According to the U.S. Energy Information Administrationโ€™s September 2026 data, U.S. utility-scale nuclear capacity stood at about 98.4 gigawatts (GW) in July 2026. Nuclear power represented roughly 7.5% of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity at that time.
  • Nuclear plants also generated about 460.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity during the first seven months of 2026, according to EIA data released in September. That was 1.5% higher than the comparable period in 2025.

EIAโ€™s September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook also expects nuclear power to account for about 18% of U.S. electricity generation in both 2026 and 2027.

nuclear EIA
Source: EIA

These figures show why extending the operating life of existing reactors can add dependable generation without waiting for an entirely new nuclear plant to be built.

Amazon Builds a Large Clean Energy Portfolio

The Calvert Cliffs agreement adds to Amazonโ€™s growing clean-energy portfolio. In 2025, Amazon said it had more than 700 renewable and carbon-free energy projects across 30 countries, representing more than 40 GW of capacity.

BloombergNEF has also ranked Amazon among the worldโ€™s largest corporate buyers of clean energy. The company contracted 10.22 GW of clean energy capacity in 2025.

Amazonโ€™s major clean-energy and nuclear deals include:

  • X-Energy: In 2024, Amazon joined a $500 million funding round for X-Energy, which is developing small modular reactors. Amazon expects the partnership to support more than 5 GW of new nuclear capacity in the U.S. by 2039.
  • Energy Northwest: Amazon is supporting a planned SMR project in Washington state. The initial project is expected to provide 320 MW, with potential to expand to 960 MW.
  • Talen Energy: Amazon signed a long-term agreement to access power from Talen Energyโ€™s Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. The deal can provide up to 1,920 MW through 2042.

The Calvert Cliffs agreement takes a different approach by supporting an existing reactor fleet and increasing its output through an uprate. This can provide additional capacity while preserving an established nuclear facility and its connection to the regional grid.

As U.S. power demand grows, deals like this can help fund nuclear plant upgrades while adding more reliable, emissions-free power to the grid. They also highlight how long-term corporate power agreements can support existing nuclear facilities and help enable new generating capacity.

Chinese EV Makers Sell Carbon Credits to Porsche and Other Europeโ€™s Auto Giants

Chinese electric-vehicle makers are finding a new way to monetize their lead in electrification: selling regulatory carbon credits to global automakers that need them to meet emissions rules. XPENG is the latest example.

The Chinese EV maker has signed carbon credit agreements with Porsche and other international automakers covering the European Union, the UK, and Australia, according to recent reports. The total transaction value is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan ($149 million), while XPENG expects to receive more than 500 million yuan ($74.5 million) from carbon-credit trading in 2026. An XPENG vice president confirmed the figures publicly.

The development points to a wider shift in the global auto industry. Chinese manufacturers are no longer only exporting electric cars. Their growing EV sales are also creating regulatory assets that other automakers can use to manage fleet emissions.

Europeโ€™s Carbon Rules Put a Price on EV Advantage

The European Union’s COโ‚‚ rules are the main driver behind this market. Under the current framework, new passenger cars registered in the EU face a fleet-wide target of 93.6 grams of COโ‚‚ per kilometer for 2025โ€“2029. The target falls to 49.5 g/km from 2030 to 2034, before reaching 0 g/km from 2035 under the existing regulation.

EU-CO2-standards
Source: ICCT

Automakers can form emissions pools. This allows manufacturers with lower fleet emissions to combine their results with manufacturers that have higher emissions. The system creates a financial value for automakers that sell large numbers of zero-emission vehicles.

The EU also applies an excess-emissions premium of โ‚ฌ95 for each gram of COโ‚‚ per kilometer above the applicable target for each new vehicle, subject to the rules governing the relevant compliance period. For manufacturers selling large numbers of higher-emission vehicles, surplus credits from EV-heavy manufacturers can therefore have significant financial value.

The system is already operating at scale. In 2025, several major automakers formed pools involving Tesla, while Mercedes established a pool involving Volvo Cars, Polestar and Smart.ย 

XPENG is now entering this market as a supplier of compliance capacity.

XPENG and Porsche Open a New China-Europe Link

The most notable agreement involves Porsche.

According to an official European Commission filing cited in recent reporting, Porsche withdrew from the Volkswagen Group’s internal emissions pool and established an independent, open pool for 2026 and 2027, with XPENG as a key partner. Financial terms have not been disclosed.

The structure is important because Porsche has a large portfolio of performance and premium vehicles, while XPENG’s fleet is centered on battery-electric vehicles.

  • In a regulatory emissions pool, the calculation is straightforward: more zero-emission vehicles can lower the average emissions of the combined fleet.

XPENG therefore gains another source of revenue from its EV sales without needing to sell the credits as conventional voluntary carbon offsets. That distinction matters.

These are regulatory COโ‚‚ compliance credits, created by vehicle-emissions rules. They are not the same as voluntary carbon credits generated by projects such as forests, methane capture, or direct air capture.

Chinaโ€™s EV Boom Is Creating the Credit Supply

XPENG’s ability to generate credits comes from the rapid expansion of its electric vehicle business. The International Energy Agency estimates that global electric car sales exceeded 20 million units in 2025, up 20% from 2024. One in four new cars sold worldwide was electric.

China remained the largest EV market, with more than 13 million electric cars sold in 2025. Nearly 55% of all new cars sold in China were electric. Chinese manufacturers also accounted for 60% of global electric car sales in 2025.

china ev market share
Source: IEA

The production advantage is just as large. China produced about 16 million electric cars in 2025, nearly 75% of global EV output. Chinese electric car exports more than doubled to over 2.5 million units.

Europe is becoming an increasingly important destination.

Sales of Chinese-made electric cars in Europe increased by almost 50% in 2025 to about 940,000 units, according to the IEA. Chinese brands accounted for more than 70% of Chinese-made EV imports into the EU, up from 50% in 2023. This expanding overseas EV fleet is also expanding the potential pool of regulatory credits.

XPENGโ€™s Global EV Expansion Adds Another Revenue Stream

XPENG’s overseas business is expanding rapidly. The company delivered 45,008 vehicles outside China in 2025, up 96% year over year, while total deliveries reached 429,445, up 126%. It was selling vehicles in 60 countries and regions by year-end.

In Q2 2026, overseas sales topped 20,000 vehicles for the first time, up 81% year over year. Overseas revenue accounted for more than 25% of first-half revenue, with an average selling price above โ‚ฌ40,000.

XPENG has also expanded its partnership with Volkswagen, which acquired a 4.99% stake for about $700 million in 2023. Their first jointly developed model entered mass production in March 2026.

The growing overseas EV business can therefore support both vehicle sales and XPENG’s ability to generate compliance value in regulated markets.

Leapmotor Shows XPENG Is Not Alone

XPENG is not the first Chinese automaker to monetize surplus emissions performance. Leapmotor transferred EU carbon credits to Stellantis for European and UK sales, generating 1.11 billion yuan ($165 million) in 2025. Its 2026 credit trading cap was later raised to 2.8 billion yuan ($417 million).

Tesla has used the same model for years, reporting about $2 billion in regulatory credit revenue in 2025, down from $2.76 billion in 2024.

Tesla carbon credit revenue 2025

For EV makers, regulatory credits can provide additional revenue. For automakers with higher fleet emissions, they can offer another compliance tool. However, their value remains dependent on emissions rules, pooling arrangements, and future regulatory changes.

XPENGโ€™s Carbon Strategy Extends Beyond Credit Sales

XPENG’s carbon strategy extends beyond regulatory credits. Its 2025 ESG report targets a 9% reduction in lifecycle carbon emissions per passenger vehicle by 2027 from 2023 levels, alongside a 38% reduction in operational carbon emissions intensity.

The company aims for carbon neutrality across its product lifecycle and corporate operations by 2050.

XPENGโ€™s Road to Carbon Neutrality 2050 Vision
Source: XPENG

In 2025, XPENG reported a product carbon footprint of 169.7 grams of COโ‚‚e per kilometer, down 18% from 2023. Operational carbon emissions intensity fell 29.9% to 205.8 tonnes of COโ‚‚e per CNY 100 million.

It also recorded 73,000 MWh of clean energy consumption and 106,000 MWh of photovoltaic generation. XPENG estimates its 2025 vehicles will avoid more than 6 million tonnes of lifecycle greenhouse-gas emissions compared with conventional vehicles.

More EVs Mean a Bigger Compliance Credit Pool

The expanding EV market provides the underlying supply of these compliance assets. The IEA expects global electric-car sales to reach about 23 million vehicles in 2026, or roughly 28% of total car sales. EVs could account for about one-third of European sales and nearly 60% of China’s market.

  • By 2035, the global EV fleet could exceed 450 million vehicles under the IEA’s Current Policies Scenario.

Europe’s fleet is also becoming cleaner. Average COโ‚‚ emissions from new passenger cars fell 28% between 2019 and 2024, while zero-emission vehicles accounted for 14.5% of new registrations in 2024.

As EV adoption rises and emissions rules tighten, the market for regulatory carbon credit transfers could expand.

Chinese EV Makers Are Turning Electrification Into a New Asset Class

XPENG’s agreements with Porsche and other international automakers show how China’s EV advantage is creating a new source of commercial value. Chinese EV exports exceeded 2.5 million vehicles, and Europe imported about 940,000 Chinese-made EVs.

Against this backdrop, XPENG expects more than 500 million yuan ($74.5 million) in carbon credit revenue in 2026. For European automakers, these credits provide another compliance tool as emissions standards tighten. For Chinese EV makers, they create an additional revenue stream from their growing zero-emission vehicle fleets.

Chinese automakers are therefore increasingly selling not only electric vehicles into Europe, but also the emissions-compliance value created by those vehicles.

How Canadaโ€™s New ITMO Framework Could Unlock International Carbon Markets

Canada is exploring a new policy framework that could let Canadian companies participate in international carbon markets by trading internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs).

The federal government announced the initiative on September 24, saying an ITMO framework could attract investment into Canadian climate projects, expand demand for carbon removal and nature-based solutions, and create new export opportunities for Canadian companies.

The move comes as international carbon markets develop under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. At the same time, countries and companies are looking for ways to finance emissions reductions and carbon removals as they work toward net-zero targets.

For Canada, the opportunity is particularly significant because the country combines large natural resources, geological storage capacity, clean electricity and established expertise in energy and industrial infrastructure.

Canadaโ€™s Emissions Create a Large Decarbonization Challenge

Canada still has a substantial emissions-reduction challenge.

The country emitted about 685 million metric tons (Mt) of greenhouse gases in 2024, excluding emissions and removals from the land-use, land-use change and forestry sector. That was down 0.3% from 2023 and 10.3% below 2005 levels.

Oil and gas remained Canada’s largest source of emissions. The sector accounted for 208 Mt in 2024, although emissions have declined from their 2014 peak. Electricity emissions have fallen much more sharply, dropping 57% between 2005 and 2024 as Canada reduced coal-fired generation.

  • Canada’s government projects that emissions could fall to 600 Mt by 2030 under its “With Measures” scenario. Under a more ambitious “With Additional Measures” scenario, emissions could reach 546 Mt by 2030.

These figures show why Canada will need a combination of emissions reductions, carbon removal and other climate solutions to reach net zero.

An international market could provide another source of capital for some of those activities.

Canada emission

What Are ITMOs and Why Do They Matter?

ITMOs are internationally transferred mitigation outcomes created under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement.

In simple terms, one country can authorize the transfer of an emissions reduction or removal to another country under a cooperative approach. The receiving country can then use the mitigation outcome toward its climate target, subject to the applicable Article 6 accounting rules.

The system is designed to prevent the same emissions reduction from being counted toward the climate targets of both countries. This process, known as a corresponding adjustment, is central to maintaining the environmental integrity of international transfers.

Canada’s proposed framework would establish how these transfers could operate in the Canadian context.

The government said it will work with provinces and territories, Indigenous organizations and other stakeholders while developing the potential framework. It also said any ITMO trading would have to follow Article 6 rules, including requirements related to additionality, verification, permanence and avoiding double counting.

International Carbon Markets Are Expanding

Canada is considering the framework as carbon pricing and carbon-credit systems expand globally.

The World Bank’s 2026 State and Trends of Carbon Pricing report found that 87 carbon-pricing policies were operating worldwide, seven more than the previous year. Direct carbon pricing now covers nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions, while carbon pricing generated more than $107 billion in public revenue in 2025.

The broader carbon-credit market is also attracting investment. The World Bank estimates that annual capital committed to future carbon-credit projects ranged from $12 billion to $16 billion in 2025.

The estimated annual value of traded carbon credits was about $535 million in 2024, although this figure covers a narrower segment of the overall carbon market than carbon taxes and emissions trading systems.

canada emission carbon market

The growth opportunity extends beyond today’s market.

The World Bank’s international carbon-market research has highlighted the potential for carbon markets to mobilize climate finance, particularly where domestic public funding cannot cover the investment needed for emissions reductions and removals.

Other market research has projected that voluntary carbon-credit demand could grow several-fold by 2030, while the World Bank’s Emission Reduction Program has cited estimates of a $10 billion to $40 billion voluntary carbon market by 2030 under one industry scenario.

This expanding market could create opportunities for countries that can supply credible emissions reductions and carbon removals.

Canada Sees Carbon Removal as an Economic Opportunity

Carbon removal is one area where Canada could potentially benefit from international demand.

  • Carbon Removal Canada has estimated that a large-scale domestic carbon removal industry could generate significant economic activity by 2050.
  • Its earlier modelling suggested that a Canadian industry capable of removing more than 300 Mt of COโ‚‚ annually could create more than 330,000 jobs and add about $143 billion to GDP.
  • More recent modelling from the organization estimates that carbon removal could add $78 billion to Canada’s annual GDP by 2050 and create or support about 300,000 jobs.
canada carbon removal
Source: Carbon Removal Canada

Canada has several resources that could support this expansion. These include geological formations suitable for COโ‚‚ storage, clean electricity, agricultural and forestry resources, industrial infrastructure and a workforce with experience in engineering, energy and large-scale construction.

Carbon removal technologies such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could therefore become part of Canada’s emerging clean-technology export industry.

ITMOs Could Bring More Capital Into Canadian Projects

The proposed ITMO framework could give developers another potential route to monetize verified emissions reductions and removals.

For example, a Canadian project could generate an eligible mitigation outcome, receive the required authorization, and transfer it internationally under an Article 6.2 agreement. Revenue from that transfer could help support project development and potentially improve the economics of technologies that remain expensive at early stages.

Nature-based projects could also benefit if they meet the requirements.

However, international transfers require more than simply creating a carbon credit. Countries need systems to authorize activities, track units, report transactions, and apply corresponding adjustments. These requirements are intended to ensure that a transferred mitigation outcome is not counted twice.

That accounting framework could also provide greater certainty for investors and buyers.

canada itmo

Canada Wants to Turn Climate Technology Into an Export Opportunity

The Honourable Julie Dabrusin, Minister of the Environment, Climate Change and Nature, said international ITMO trading could help Canadian companies attract capital and expand climate technologies.

She quoted:

“The trading of ITMOs under the Paris Agreement can unlock greater global climate action by making it easier to transfer emission reductions and removals between countries. This is about turning our natural advantages and homegrown climate innovation into investment, good jobs, and new export opportunities. A clear framework for international carbon credit transfers can help Canadian companies scale, attract capital, and bring more innovative technologies to market, strengthening our position as a leader in the global clean economy.โ€

$13 Billion in International Climate Finance

The government is also linking the initiative to more than $13 billion in international climate finance announced through the Spring Economic Update.

For Canada’s carbon market, the proposed framework could therefore represent more than a new trading mechanism. It could connect Canadian climate projects and technologies with international sources of demand and finance.

The framework is still under development, and its final rules will determine which projects and mitigation outcomes can participate. Canada will need to balance market access with rigorous accounting and environmental safeguards as it develops the system.

If implemented, the framework could give Canadian carbon removal developers, technology companies, and nature-based projects another potential pathway into the growing international market for emissions reductions and removals.

Cowboy Clean Fuels Sells First Durable Carbon Removal Credits in Salesforce-Backed Purchase

Cowboy Clean Fuels has sold its first durable carbon removal credits through a Salesforce-backed purchase arranged by Milkywire, with delivery scheduled for 2026. The Wyoming-based company said the transaction marks its entry into the durable carbon removal market. It adds carbon removal sales to its existing business producing renewable natural gas (RNG).

Cowboy is one of eight carbon removal suppliers included in Milkywire’s latest Salesforce-backed purchasing round. The group covers 3,661 tonnes of durable carbon removal across direct air capture, ocean alkalinity, biomass storage and related approaches.

Cowboy accounts for 500 tonnes of that total. The volume is small compared with the scale of global emissions. But the transaction is important for a different reason. Cowboy’s project is already operating, and the purchase helps create demand for a relatively new carbon removal pathway.

Ryan Waddington, Chief Executive Officer, Cowboy Clean Fuels, said:

“Durable carbon removal needs pathways that can be verified today and expanded tomorrow, and Wyoming’s subsurface gives us both. Buyers working with us get permanent removal alongside carbon-neutral renewable gas from the same operations, a combination very few suppliers can offer. This is an important step for Cowboy Clean Fuels and for the rural communities in Campbell County, Wyoming, that make the work possible.”

Cowboy Turns Farm Residues Into Carbon Removal

Cowboy’s process combines biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) with renewable natural gas production. The company takes agricultural processing residues and injects them into depleted coalbed methane reservoirs in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. Microorganisms inside the coal seams break down the biomass without oxygen.

That process produces methane and carbon dioxide.

Cowboy captures the methane as renewable natural gas, while the CO2 becomes attached to the coal and remains stored underground. The company calls this its BiCRS+RNG process.

The model differs from traditional bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In BECCS, biomass is burned for energy, and the CO2 produced is captured.

Cowboy instead relies on natural microbial activity underground. The company uses existing coalbed methane wells and infrastructure. This cuts down on the need for new infrastructure.

The Triangle Unit Is Already Operating

The carbon removal credits come from Cowboy’s Triangle Unit project, located in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. The project is already operating. Cowboy says the facility started commercial operations after getting approval from Wyoming authorities. It has been injecting biomass to convert it into methane and CO2.

When fully operational, the Triangle Unit will produce about 0.7 billion cubic feet of renewable natural gas each year. It will also sequester around 180,000 metric tons of CO2 annually, as stated by the company. The project is also designed around existing energy infrastructure.

That approach could help lower capital requirements compared with building an entirely new carbon removal facility. Cowboy says it can also extend the useful life of existing wells and infrastructure while creating new income for land and resource owners.

The company estimates the project will support 221 jobs directly and indirectly. It will generate $8.8 million in annual tax revenue. Also, it will add over $36 million to Wyoming’s GDP each year when fully operational. These are company estimates rather than measured economic results.

Cowboy's Triangle Unit project
Source: Cowboy

Carbon Removal Credits Were Already Verified

The Salesforce-backed purchase is not the first time Cowboy has brought its carbon removal credits to the market. In April 2026, the company announced that its credits were independently verified and listed on the Evident C-Capsule registry. This means they are now available for purchase. The projects were certified under the Absolute Carbon Standard (ACS).

Cowboy has said its methodology follows ISO 14064-2:2019 and is designed for long-duration geological storage.

Climate Vault Solutions picked the Triangle Unit project for its carbon removal portfolio. This decision followed a review by its Technology Experts Chamber. Climate Vault said the project was the first BiCRS project to pass its review and that Cowboy became part of its independently vetted supplier portfolio.

These steps are important because carbon removal buyers increasingly want evidence that projects can measure and account for their net climate benefit.

Cowboy has also faced questions because its process uses coal formations and creates methane. The company says no coal is burned in its process and that the methane is captured for use as renewable natural gas. The CEO said the company is tackling issues like permanence, methane, and lifecycle emissions. They focus on measurement and third-party review.

Salesforce Is Creating Early Demand for CDR

The purchase is part of Salesforce’s commitment to contract $100 million of durable carbon dioxide removal by 2030. Salesforce made the commitment in 2022 as a founding member of the First Movers Coalition. The company says the goal is to help create demand for carbon removal technologies before they reach full commercial scale.

Milkywire is helping Salesforce deploy part of that commitment through smaller purchases from early-stage suppliers.

In January 2026, Milkywire made over 12,500 tonnes of Salesforce-backed purchases. These came from 19 suppliers and involved six carbon removal methods across 15 countries. That programme was valued at about $5 million and focused on technologies that were not yet attracting enough buyers.

The latest round adds another 3,661 tonnes from eight suppliers. Cowboy’s 500-tonne purchase is therefore one piece of a broader portfolio.

Milkywire says it has now facilitated more than $12 million of durable CDR purchases across 45-plus projects in more than 20 countries. The approach is important for newer technologies because early buyers can provide revenue before projects reach large commercial scale.

Durable CDR Is Growing, But Delivery Is Still Limited

The Cowboy transaction comes as the durable carbon removal market grows rapidly. CDR.fyi reported that durable carbon removal purchases in Q1 2026 reached about 2.3 million tonnes, the largest first quarter on record.

durable-cdr-purchase-volume-by-method-2026-q1
Source: CDR.fyi

The total was 564% of Q1 2024’s volume. More than 113 buyers other than Microsoft contracted about 1.3 million tonnes during the quarter. But there is still a large difference between contracts and actual deliveries.

CDR.fyi said in June that durable CDR purchases outside Microsoft and Frontier had grown at a 151% compound annual rate from 2021 to 2025, while deliveries had grown at 131%. Biomass carbon removal and storage methods accounted for 96% of purchase volume and 91% of delivered volume in 2025.

This makes Cowboy’s sale notable. The company is not only signing a future purchase agreement. It is selling credits from an operating project with delivery in 2026. That moves the transaction closer to actual market performance rather than a long-term promise.

Could BiCRS Become CDR’s Next Growth Engine?

Biomass-based removal is receiving growing attention because it can combine carbon storage with energy production or waste management.

Cowboy’s model is one example. Other projects use biochar, BECCS, or underground biomass storage. The common idea is to take carbon absorbed by plants and keep it out of the atmosphere for a long period.

The challenge is proving the full climate benefit. Projects need to account for emissions from growing, collecting, and transporting biomass, as well as energy use and other parts of the supply chain. They must also show that the carbon remains stored for the required period.

Cowboy’s use of agricultural processing residues could help because the company is using an existing waste stream rather than growing dedicated energy crops. However, the sustainability and availability of feedstock will remain important as the company scales.

Cowboy is exploring more projects in the Powder River Basin. They are also contracting stronger carbon removal volumes and carbon-negative RNG supply.

Cowboy Clean Fuels carbon removal

The First Sale Tests a New Business Model

Cowboy’s first durable CDR sale is small in volume, but it links several parts of the emerging carbon market.

Salesforce’s approach also shows how large companies can help finance early CDR projects through smaller, targeted purchases. The bigger test is scale. Cowboy must demonstrate that it can grow while ensuring reliable carbon accounting, a sustainable biomass supply, and long-term storage.

The 500-tonne purchase does not prove that the technology can deliver hundreds of thousands of tonnes of removals. But it gives the company an important commercial milestone and provides a real-world test of its carbon removal pathway.

For the wider market, the development shows that durable carbon removal is slowly moving from early commitments toward actual deliveries. More buyers are entering the market. Projects that show measurable removals, clear accounting, and strong performance may secure bigger contracts.

Salesforce and Milkywire Back 3,661 Tons of Carbon Removal Across 8 Projects

Salesforce is supporting new early-stage carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects. The company aims to contract $100 million in durable carbon removal by 2030.

Through Milkywire, Salesforce has pre-purchased 3,661 tonnes of durable carbon removal from eight suppliers. This portfolio includes direct air capture (DAC), ocean alkalinity enhancement, and biomass storage. Projects are located in Europe, Canada, India, and the U.S.

The press release says these purchases follow a larger round announced in January, where Milkywire bought over 12,500 tonnes from 19 suppliers. That earlier portfolio featured biochar, BioCCS, enhanced rock weathering, mineralization, biomass storage, and next-generation DAC.

Therefore, the company is not only focusing on commercially available carbon removal. Instead, it uses Salesforce funding to support technologies that need testing and investment.

Salesforce Aims for Early-Stage Carbon Removal

Salesforce plans to contract $100 million in high-durability CDR credits by fiscal 2031, aligning with 2030. The company started investing in early-stage CDR suppliers through partners like Milkywire and Frontier in FY25.

The strategy addresses a major challenge in the carbon removal market. Many new technologies require years of development before they can deliver large volumes of verified removals. Startups often struggle to get funding during this early stage.

Early purchases can provide revenue and help developers prove their technology.

Salesforce carbon credits
Source: Salesforce

โ€œCatalyticโ€ Purchasing

Milkywire calls this approach โ€œcatalyticโ€ purchasing. Instead of buying the most tonnes available, it targets projects where early funding can advance technology.

For Salesforce, these purchases fit into a broader climate strategy. The company plans to use durable carbon removal credits to offset its remaining emissions after reducing them across its value chain. It aims for durable carbon removals to equal 100% of its remaining Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by 2040.

salesforce emissions
Source: Salesforce

Four Projects Boost Direct Air Capture

Four of the eight purchases support direct air capture projects at various stages.

  • Sirona Technologies is developing a commercial DAC project that integrates a heat pump. The goal is to test if this can improve energy efficiency in DAC.
  • Yama operates France’s first DAC pilot and is creating a facility to remove 365 tonnes of COโ‚‚ each year.
  • In the Netherlands, Brineworks combines electrochemical DAC with green hydrogen production. This method captures COโ‚‚ while creating another low-carbon product.
  • Deep Sky in Canada is developing a DAC project that combines carbon capture with mineralization at Thetford Mines in Quebec. Mineralization stores COโ‚‚ in solid forms for long-term storage.

These projects tackle the challenge of reducing energy use and costs in removing COโ‚‚ directly from the atmosphere.

Ocean Carbon Removal Expands

The new portfolio also features two ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) projects.

OAE aims to boost the ocean’s capacity to absorb and store COโ‚‚ by adding alkaline materials. This method is still emerging, with developers working to show its effectiveness and scalability.

PRONOE runs the EU’s first land-based OAE system linked to an industrial desalination plant.

In India, Alkamy Carbon is using wastewater treatment facilities in the Mumbai area to enhance alkalinity. This project should provide valuable data on wastewater-based alkalinity in tropical conditions.

The India project is crucial because carbon removal developers need more real-world data from diverse climates. This data helps researchers understand how these methods perform in different environments.

Biomass Storage Provides Another Pathway

The last two purchases focus on storing biomass in durable forms.

Carba converts waste biomass into stable biocarbon before burying it in landfills. This process prevents carbon in organic waste from quickly re-entering the atmosphere.

Cowboy Clean Fuels injects agricultural residues into unmineable coal seams in Wyoming. Microorganisms underground convert the biomass into COโ‚‚, which binds permanently to the coal.

These projects illustrate how durable carbon removal can involve various technologies and storage methods.

The eight purchases are:

  • Alkamy Carbon: 667 tonnes
  • Brineworks: 500 tonnes
  • Carba: 816 tonnes
  • Cowboy Clean Fuels: 500 tonnes
  • Deep Sky: 394 tonnes
  • PRONOE: 131 tonnes
  • Sirona Technologies: 390 tonnes
  • Yama: 263 tonnes

This totals 3,661 tonnes.

ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  Credit Issuanceย 

CDR purchases
Source: ClimeFi CDR Market Report

Why Early Buyers Matter for the CDR Market

These latest purchases come as the carbon removal industry faces challenges.

While the sector has seen significant investment, many companies developing new technologies encounter high costs, long timelines, and limited demand.

Milkywire says the market needs buyers who will back technologies early on. Without early demand, promising projects might find it hard to secure funding. They may also struggle to transition from pilot stages to commercial operations.

This approach can also yield technical insights. A first-of-a-kind project may remove small amounts of COโ‚‚, but its operation can provide data to improve performance and reduce costs.

Notably, Milkywire has enabled more than $12 million in carbon removal purchases. This includes over 45 projects in 20+ countries.

The latest portfolio spreads funding across multiple technologies instead of focusing on one method.

ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  CDR Market Growth

cdr Purchases cdr market
Source: ClimeFi CDR Market Report

For Salesforce, these purchases further its long-term carbon removal strategy. The company announced its $100 million durable CDR commitment in 2022 as part of the First Movers Coalition.

As the CDR market grows, these early purchases could help identify which technologies move from pilot to commercial deployment. For developers, funding means early buyers. For the industry, these projects offer real-world data on effective pathways for durable carbon removal at scale.

NVIDIAโ€™s AI Spending Surge to $279B as Infrastructure Commitments Hit Record Levels, NVDA Stock Gains

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is moving deeper into the center of the global AI infrastructure boom as spending commitments across the industry reach unprecedented levels. The chipmaker is benefiting from rising demand for AI computing, while also helping finance and build the infrastructure needed to support future growth.

The trend is reflected in NVIDIAโ€™s latest results. For the second quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year. Data Center revenue rose 117% to $89 billion.

NVIDIA expects another record quarter, forecasting $108 billion in fiscal Q3 revenue. Behind those numbers is a much larger infrastructure cycle involving chips, data centers, networking, electricity, and financing.

The $2.7T AI Spending Wave Is Just Getting Started

The scale of AI investment has expanded sharply. Gartner forecasts worldwide AI spending at $2.7 trillion in 2026, up 49.5% from 2025. AI infrastructure is expected to account for about $1.48 trillion of that spending. Gartner forecasts total AI spending could reach approximately $3.64 trillion in 2027.

Data center investment is also creating a major new demand for electricity.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates global data center electricity consumption will roughly double from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030. Electricity use from AI-focused data centers is expected to triple over the same period.

The IEA also expects data centers to account for about 3% of global electricity demand by 2030. In the U.S., they could account for almost half of electricity-demand growth through the end of the decade. This creates demand not only for GPUs but also for networking equipment, cooling systems, power infrastructure, and data center capacity.US data centers electricity use 2030

NVIDIAโ€™s Results Show the Scale of Demand

NVIDIA’s latest financial results provide a direct measure of the AI infrastructure boom. For the quarter ended July 26, 2026, revenue reached $96.2 billion, compared with $46.7 billion a year earlier. Operating income climbed 124% to $63.7 billion, while net income increased 126% to $59.7 billion. GAAP gross margin was 75%.

The Data Center segment remains the main growth engine. Revenue increased 18% from the previous quarter and 117% from a year earlier to $89 billion. NVIDIA’s Edge Computing revenue reached $7.2 billion, up 27% year over year.

Nvidia data center revenue Q2 2027
Source: Nvidia

For fiscal Q3, NVIDIA expects revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. Its forecast assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. Gross margin is expected at 74%, plus or minus 50 basis points.

The company has also sharply increased its supply and capacity commitments. NVIDIA’s fiscal Q2 filing shows these commitments rose from $119 billion to $279 billion as of July 26, 2026. The company said the increase was intended to meet future demand.

These commitments are not the same as revenue. They represent future obligations and capacity arrangements. NVIDIA also warns that customers could delay purchases because of shortages of land, electricity, data center shells, or capital.

NVIDIA Moves Into AI Infrastructure Financing

The world’s most valuable company is also expanding beyond chip sales. In August, NVIDIA announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish independent financing platforms for AI infrastructure.

The platforms aim to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital over time. The objective is to help fund large AI data centers and computing systems. This reflects a broader shift in the industry.

The IEA says data center investments have become too large to be funded entirely from company balance sheets, making capital markets increasingly important.

However, the $500 billion figure is a target for capital mobilization, not money already committed. NVIDIA’s announcement says the arrangements remain subject to definitive agreements. NVIDIA’s Q2 filing also shows $99 billion of equity investments and $25 billion of equity investment commitments as of July 26, 2026.

OpenAIโ€™s 10-GW Plan Adds Fuel to the AI Buildout

One of the clearest examples of AI infrastructure demand is NVIDIA’s partnership with OpenAI. In September 2025, the companies announced plans for at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure.

NVIDIA said it intended to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI progressively as each gigawatt is deployed. The first gigawatt was targeted for deployment in the second half of 2026 using NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform.

NVIDIA’s broader infrastructure model now covers computing, networking, software and financing. The company’s fiscal Q2 results also highlighted its DSX platform, which is designed to help infrastructure builders design, build and operate large-scale AI factories. This suggests that NVIDIA’s role in the AI economy is expanding beyond supplying individual processors.

The Next AI Bottleneck: Finding Enough Power

The next challenge is increasingly physical. AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity, and connecting new facilities to power grids can take years. The IEA says bottlenecks involving grid connections, transformers, gas turbines, advanced chips and other infrastructure are already slowing some projects.

NVIDIA’s own regulatory filing makes a similar point. It says access to land, power, data center shells and capital is crucial to customer deployment.

This creates a potential constraint on how quickly AI computing capacity can grow. Having demand for GPUs does not automatically mean the infrastructure exists to operate them. It also creates a larger connection between the technology and energy markets.

The IEA expects renewables and natural gas to supply much of the additional electricity needed by data centers, with nuclear also becoming more important later this decade.

NVIDIAโ€™s AI Growth Comes With a Bigger Emissions Bill

NVIDIA GHG emissions 2026

The infrastructure boom also raises environmental questions for NVIDIA and its supply chain. It has science-based emissions targets based on a FY2023 baseline, aiming to cut absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 50% by FY2030. It also targets a 75% reduction in Scope 3 emissions intensity from the use of sold GPUs per PFLOP by FY2030.

The company has made progress on operational electricity emissions. Its FY26 sustainability report shows 9,822 metric tons of Scope 1 emissions and 568 tons of market-based Scope 2 emissions. However, its wider supply chain footprint has increased sharply.

NVIDIA reported 10.7 million metric tons of Scope 3 emissions in FY26, compared with 6.9 million tons in FY25. Purchased goods and services accounted for 9.3 million tons. That increase highlights the environmental challenge created by rapid hardware expansion.

Nvidia GHG emissions 2026 by scope
Data source: Nvidia
  • The chipmaker is therefore pursuing two parallel goals: increasing computing efficiency while reducing emissions across its operations and value chain.

NVIDIA Stock Moves Higher as AI Spending Accelerates

NVIDIA stock closed at $228.38 on September 30, 2026, gaining 0.5% for the session. The stock rose 1.7% on September 28 after NVIDIA announced a record $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase authorization. This lifts the total remaining authorization to about $235 billion.

Recent trading has therefore taken place alongside continued investor focus on AI infrastructure spending, NVIDIA’s earnings growth and its expanding capital-return program.

NVIDIA NVDA Stock

NVIDIAโ€™s AI Infrastructure Cycle Keeps Expanding

NVIDIA enters the next phase of the AI buildout with several major infrastructure commitments already in place. OpenAI’s planned 10-GW deployment adds another large source of future demand.

At the same time, the industry faces physical and financial constraints. Electricity demand from data centers is projected to nearly double by 2030, while grid connections, power equipment, land, construction capacity and financing could limit the speed of new deployments.

For NVIDIA, the opportunity is therefore no longer limited to selling GPUs. The company is increasingly involved in the broader AI infrastructure stack, including computing, networking, software, capacity and financing.

The scale of those commitments shows how much capital is now moving behind AI. It also makes energy availability, infrastructure delivery, emissions, and the economic returns from AI spending increasingly important factors in the next phase of the market.

Verra CCS Methodology Gets ICVCM Approval as Carbon Removal Market Grows

Verraโ€™s carbon capture and storage (CCS) methodology has been approved by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) under its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs).

The approval adds a major technology-based carbon removal method to the growing list of methodologies that meet the ICVCMโ€™s high-integrity requirements.

Mandy Rambharos, CEO of Verra, says:

โ€œCarbon capture and storage is one of the hardest, most technically demanding technologies in the market, and it has to be done right. The ICVCMโ€™s approval confirms that VM0049 and its accompanying modules meet the highest bar for integrity in the industry, giving buyers and governments confidence in VCS projects that apply an approach essential to reaching net zero. Tackling climate change will take every tool in the toolbox. More credible credits in more sectors means more impactful climate action.โ€

Inside Verra’s VCS Methodology VM0049ย 

Verraโ€™s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) methodology VM0049 Carbon Capture and Storage, v1.0, sets rules for measuring greenhouse gas emission reductions and carbon dioxide removals from projects that capture COโ‚‚ and store it permanently.

The framework also includes modules for direct air capture (DAC), COโ‚‚ transport, COโ‚‚ storage and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

The approval comes at an important time for the voluntary carbon market. Buyers are paying more attention to whether carbon credits represent real and lasting climate benefits. For CCS projects, this is especially important because capturing COโ‚‚ is only one part of the process.

Projects must also account for emissions from energy use and transportation and show that the captured COโ‚‚ will remain safely stored.

emissions CCS
Source: Verra

Why ICVCM Approval Matters

The ICVCM created the Core Carbon Principles to set a common standard for high-quality carbon credits.

The organization reviews carbon-crediting methodologies to determine whether they meet requirements designed to support credible climate benefits.

This process matters for CCS because these projects can involve several stages and technologies. A project may capture COโ‚‚ at an industrial facility, move it through a pipeline, and then store it deep underground.

Each stage can create emissions or other risks that need to be measured.

As explained before, VM0049 provides rules for accounting for these activities. It is designed to calculate the emissions reductions and carbon removals linked to eligible CCS projects.

Thus, the ICVCM approval gives the methodology an additional credibility signal in the carbon market.

However, the approval applies to the methodology, not automatically to every project using it. Individual projects still need to meet the relevant VCS requirements and verification rules.

That distinction is important as companies look for higher-quality carbon removal credits.

One Framework Covers Several Technologies

One of the main features of VM0049 is its modular design.

Instead of requiring a completely separate methodology for every type of CCS project, Verra created a main framework that can work with different modules.

The approved modules include:

  • VMD0056: Direct air capture
  • VMD0057: COโ‚‚ transport
  • VMD0058: COโ‚‚ storage
  • VMD0059: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

This approach gives project developers more flexibility.

For example, a project could capture COโ‚‚ at one location, transport it through a shared pipeline, and store it at a separate geological site. Multiple facilities could also potentially use the same transportation or storage infrastructure.

The framework can also support projects as they grow or add new technologies.

VM0049 has been active since June 2024 and can be used for eligible projects involving geological carbon storage around the world. The methodology was developed by the CCS+ Initiative, South Pole Carbon Asset Management and Perspectives Climate Group, with support from Verra.

verra ccs
Source: Verra

Energy Use Is Also Important

Carbon capture can require large amounts of energy. Therefore, the source of that electricity matters when calculating the overall climate benefit of a project.

VM0049 includes specific requirements for projects that use renewable electricity.

Projects must show that their renewable electricity comes from newly developed renewable sources dedicated to the CCS project. They cannot simply rely on existing renewable generation and assume that the power has no additional climate impact.

This requirement is important because the amount of COโ‚‚ captured does not tell the full story.

A project could capture a large amount of carbon but still have significant emissions from the energy needed to operate its equipment. A robust methodology therefore needs to look at the projectโ€™s wider emissions rather than only the captured COโ‚‚.

CCS Could Support the Growth of Carbon Removal

CCS is becoming an important part of the technology-based carbon removal market.

Direct air capture is one example. DAC systems remove COโ‚‚ directly from the atmosphere. The captured carbon can then be transported and stored underground.

BECCS takes a different approach. It uses biomass-based processes to generate energy or products while capturing the resulting COโ‚‚ and storing it.

Both technologies depend on permanent storage and accurate measurement. This makes clear accounting rules important as the industry moves from small demonstration projects toward larger commercial facilities.

VM0049โ€™s modular approach could help developers use one overall framework for different combinations of capture, transport and storage.

At the same time, the methodology can account for emissions linked to each stage of the process.

cdr

What the Approval Means for the Carbon Market

The ICVCM approval gives CCS developers another methodology that has met the organizationโ€™s Core Carbon Principles requirements.

For carbon-credit buyers, the approval can make it easier to identify methodologies that have gone through the ICVCMโ€™s integrity assessment.

However, buyers will still need to examine individual projects. Factors such as the technology used, energy source, monitoring system, storage site, and verification process can affect the actual climate benefit of a project.

This will become increasingly important as the carbon removal market expands.

CCS projects are often complex and require significant infrastructure and capital. A clear methodology can help developers measure their climate benefits and give buyers a common framework for evaluating the resulting credits.

The ICVCM approval therefore marks an important step for technology-based carbon removal. It does not remove the need for project-level due diligence, but it gives the market another methodology that has passed an independent integrity assessment.

As more CCS, DAC, and BECCS projects move toward commercial scale, these standards could play an increasingly important role in building confidence in the carbon removal market.

700+ Companies Commit to Net Zero by 2040, But Renewable Growth Still Falls Short

More than 700 companies have now committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 through The Climate Pledge, but the rapid growth of corporate climate action is running into a major global challenge: there is still not enough clean energy capacity being built to meet the world’s 2030 renewable target.

The Climate Pledge’s 2026 report counted 705 signatories across 49 countries and territories and 62 industries. The combined revenue of the companies is about $3.8 trillion. The current Climate Pledge website now lists 728 signatories.

At the same time, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says the world added a record 692 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power capacity in 2025, bringing total renewable capacity to 5,149 GW.

That is strong growth, but it is still below the pace needed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. The gap matters for companies trying to cut emissions because corporate demand for clean electricity is growing faster than renewable supply in many markets.

Climate Pledge Companies Are Turning Net-Zero Targets Into Action

The new Climate Pledge report provides some evidence that corporate commitments are translating into action.

Among 119 signatories analyzed in the report, representing about 90% of publicly available signatory revenue, operational carbon emissions fell by an average of 11% between the measured periods. That compares with a 7% average decline among other companies in the dataset.

The Climate Pledge by numbers
Source: The Climate Pledge

The median reduction among the analyzed signatories was even higher at 21%. Three out of four companies reduced emissions from their direct operations and purchased energy.ย 

The biggest reduction came from Scope 2 emissions, which fell by an average of 35%. These are emissions linked to purchased electricity, heat, steam, and cooling. Renewable energy procurement was a major reason for that decline.

By comparison, Scope 1 emissions fell 4% on average. These come directly from company operations, including fuel use and industrial processes.

That difference highlights a major issue for the next stage of corporate decarbonization. Buying more renewable electricity can reduce power-related emissions, but cutting emissions from factories, fleets, buildings and industrial processes is often harder.ย 

Angel Hsu, Associate Professor and Founder of the Data Driven Envirolab at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, wrote:

“Through the Net Zero Tracker, we spend our time scrutinizing whether corporate climate commitments are credible and actually hold up over time. What’s encouraging in the data is how many companies are not only staying the course, but in many cases strengthening their targets over time while backing them with measurable progress. That continued commitment is what turns a net-zero claim into a credible plan.”

Renewable Power Is Growing at Record Speedย 

Global renewable deployment is nevertheless moving quickly. IRENA reports that 692 GW of renewable capacity was added in 2025, a 15.5% increase from the previous year. Renewables accounted for 85.6% of all new power capacity added globally.

Solar dominated the expansion, with about 511 GW added. Wind contributed another 158.7 GW. Together, solar and wind made up 96.8% of net renewable additions.

  • Renewables now represent about 49% of global installed power capacity, according to IRENA.ย 

The economics are also improving. IRENA says more than 85% of new renewable projects are now cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives, while the cost of solar power has fallen 87% since 2010, onshore wind by 55%, and battery storage by 93%.ย 

The market is therefore no longer simply waiting for renewable technology to become competitive. The bigger challenge is deploying it fast enough and connecting it to consumers.

The World Still Has a 2030 Renewable Capacity Gap

At COP28, countries agreed to work toward tripling global renewable power capacity by 2030. IRENA estimates this means reaching about 11.2 terawatts (TW) by 2030. To get there, the world needs average annual additions of about 1,122 GW between 2025 and 2030, with renewable capacity growing about 16.6% a year.ย 

The 692 GW added in 2025 was therefore about 430 GW below that annual average pace. Put another way, 2025 deployment reached only about 62% of the average annual capacity addition needed to stay on the tripling path.

renewable power additions
Source: IRENA

IRENA’s latest data also shows that deployment remains highly concentrated. China, the United States and the European Union accounted for 79.5% of all new renewable capacity added in 2025, while Africa accounted for only 1.6%.

That imbalance is a major concern for companies operating across emerging markets, where access to renewable electricity can remain limited even as corporate climate targets become more demanding.ย 

Grids and Finance Are Becoming the Bottlenecks

The renewable gap is not simply a question of building more solar panels and wind turbines. IRENA’s 2026 analysis points to several practical barriers, including:

  • Grid capacity,
  • Energy storage,
  • Permitting,
  • Financing, and
  • Supply chains.

Grid upgrades are especially important because solar and wind projects can be built faster than new transmission and distribution infrastructure. This creates a growing problem for companies.

A business can have a target to use 100% renewable electricity, but achieving it depends on whether suitable projects exist in the markets where it operates and whether the grid can deliver the required power.

The Climate Pledge report reflects that challenge. Its signatories reduced purchased-energy emissions much faster than direct operational emissions, showing that renewable procurement can move relatively quickly while harder industrial reductions take longer.

That is why corporate demand can play an important role in the renewable market. Long-term power purchase agreements and other procurement contracts can provide developers with predictable demand and help projects secure financing.

Corporate Demand Could Boost Carbon Markets

The Climate Pledge is relevant to the carbon market as well. Its members commit to measure and report emissions, reduce them through operational changes and clean energy, and neutralize remaining emissions with additional, quantifiable, real and permanent offsets.ย 

Yet, that does not mean all 700-plus companies will rely heavily on carbon credits. The framework puts direct emissions cuts first. But as companies reduce their operational emissions, the remaining emissions become harder to eliminate. That could increase demand for high-quality carbon removals and other credible climate projects over time.

The Climate Pledge
Source: The Climate Pledge

The Climate Pledge report estimates that if its signatories collectively reach net zero, they could eliminate at least 2.6 billion metric tons of CO2e annually. The organization says this is roughly equivalent to one-third of the carbon absorbed by the world’s forests each year.

This is a projection, not a measured reduction already achieved, and the report notes that emissions overlaps between companies mean it should not be treated as a simple absolute emissions reduction. That distinction is important when assessing the real market impact.

The Next Decade Will Test How Fast Markets Can Scale

The two new data sets point to the same market challenge from different directions. Corporate climate commitments are expanding quickly. The Climate Pledge added 107 companies in 2025, a 19% increase from 2024. Signatories now span dozens of industries, including sectors that are difficult to decarbonize.ย 

Renewable power is also expanding at record levels, but the world still needs much faster deployment to reach the 2030 tripling goal. For companies, this creates both a challenge and a business opportunity.

More renewable capacity, stronger grids and better storage can make corporate emissions targets easier to deliver. Long-term corporate demand can, in turn, help finance new clean energy projects. The key issue is timing.

The Climate Pledge gives companies until 2040 to reach net zero, while the global renewable tripling target arrives in 2030. That leaves only a few years to close the renewable deployment gap. The latest numbers show progress, but they also show how much more infrastructure must be built.

The corporate climate market is growing. The renewable market is growing even faster. However, neither is moving fast enough to close the gap between today’s commitments and the clean energy system needed to meet them.