Can UK-US Fusion Partnership Turn AI-Powered Research Into Clean Energy?

The UK and US are expanding their partnership on fusion energy, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI), advanced computing and simpler rules for developing fusion plants. The agreements were announced at the Global Fusion Policy Summit in London on September 14, 2026.

The partnership links the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) with the US Department of Energyโ€™s Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). The two countries will also work together on fusion safety and regulation.

The move comes as both countries step up spending on fusion and try to turn decades of research into working power plants.

The UK has committed more than ยฃ2.5 billion to fusion over five years. The US has set out a plan aimed at supporting pilot plants and commercial fusion power in the mid-2030s.ย 

AI Could Speed Up Fusion Research

One part of the partnership will link two advanced computers: the UKAEAโ€™s SUNRISE supercomputer and PPPLโ€™s STELLAR-AI system.

The planned SUNRISEโ€“STELLAR-AI Federation will allow researchers in both countries to train AI models using data from fusion experiments. The goal is to improve reactor designs, better understand plasma, and speed up research.

The UK has committed ยฃ45 million to SUNRISE. The system is expected to use about 1.4 megawatts of power and become one of the world’s most powerful computers focused on fusion research.ย 

UKAEA supercomputing facility
Source: United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority

Researchers could also use these systems to create digital twins of fusion plants. These virtual models allow engineers to test designs and changes before trying them on real equipment. This could save time and reduce the cost of testing.

The partnership also creates an interesting link between AI and fusion. AI needs large amounts of electricity, while fusion could eventually provide steady, low-carbon power for data centers and other energy-intensive industries.

Both Countries Want Clearer Fusion Rules

The UK and US also want closer cooperation on fusion regulation and safety standards. The two countries said they will work toward rules that reflect the different risks of fusion compared with traditional nuclear fission.

Clear rules matter because fusion plants will require billions of dollars in investment. Developers need to know how projects will be licensed and operated before they can commit large amounts of money.

The UK has already created a dedicated regulatory framework for fusion. It is also developing a Fusion National Policy Statement and a new market framework for future fusion plants.

Minister for Energy, Michael Shanks, stated:

“By strengthening our partnership with the US, weโ€™re accelerating the race to commercial fusion, turning cutting-edge research into economic growth and cementing Britainโ€™s position as a world leader in fusion energy.”

The US is also working to speed up its approval process as private fusion companies move closer to commercial projects. FCDO Minister for the Americas, Chris Elmore, said:

“By bringing together world-leading expertise in fusion, artificial intelligence and advanced computing, weโ€™re helping British businesses and researchers access the investment, knowledge and international partnerships needed to succeed in the industries of the future.”

Britain Bets ยฃ1.3 Billion on Its 2040 Fusion Plant

The UK’s main project is STEP Fusion, a prototype power plant planned for West Burton in Nottinghamshire. The plant is expected to begin operating in 2040. It is designed to show that a fusion plant can produce net electricity for the grid and make its own tritium fuel.ย 

The UK has allocated ยฃ1.3 billion for the next stage of STEP. The wider five-year fusion programme also includes ยฃ180 million for the LIBRTI programme, which is working on tritium fuel, and ยฃ110 million for industry support and commercialization.ย 

The UK government estimates the global fusion market could be worth between ยฃ3 trillion and ยฃ12 trillion by the end of the century.

US Targets Commercial Fusion in the 2030s

The US has set a faster target. The Department of Energy’s Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap, finalized in June 2026, aims to support pilot plants and commercial fusion power in the mid-2030s. It covers research, technology, infrastructure, skills, and commercial development.

The US plan is also designed to support the growing private fusion industry.

Private companies are developing several different fusion technologies, including magnetic and inertial fusion. The UK-US partnership could help these companies access more research, computing power, and technical expertise.

Department of Energy's Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap
Source: Department of Energy

Tritium Could Be Fusion’s Biggest Fuel Challenge

Fusion works by joining light atoms at extremely high temperatures. This releases energy without burning coal, oil, or gas.

That means fusion does not create CO2 from fuel combustion during operation. It also has a potential advantage over wind and solar: fusion plants could produce power continuously instead of depending on weather.

That makes fusion a possible source of firm, low-carbon electricity for future power grids. But commercial fusion power does not yet exist at scale.

Scientists and engineers still need to solve major challenges. These include keeping the plasma stable, protecting reactor parts from intense radiation, producing enough fuel, and operating reactors reliably for long periods.

  • One of the key problems is tritium, a radioactive form of hydrogen.

Many planned fusion systems will use a mixture of deuterium and tritium as fuel. Future plants therefore need a reliable way to produce and recover tritium during operation.

The UK’s LIBRTI programme is working on this challenge. Its goal is to develop systems that can produce enough tritium to support future fusion reactors. Solving this problem will be important before fusion can become a large commercial energy source.

A New Fusion Industry Is Taking Shape in Britain

The partnership comes as electricity demand is rising from data centers, manufacturing, electric vehicles and other technologies. Renewable energy could provide much of the new clean electricity, but power systems also need reliable generation, storage and stronger grids.

Fusion could eventually work alongside wind and solar by providing steady low-carbon power. It is not a replacement for renewable energy today.

The technology still needs to prove that it can produce electricity reliably and at a competitive cost. For now, the focus is on research, testing, and demonstration projects.

The UK is also working with companies and research groups on materials and other parts needed for future reactors. A separate ยฃ2.63 million project involving the University of Birmingham, the Electric Power Research Institute and industry partners will study fusion reactor shielding materials.

Japan’s Kyoto Fusioneering has also committed up to ยฃ3 million to Project ALBION, which supports materials development for STEP. These projects can help build a supply chain before commercial fusion plants are ready.

The Race Now Moves From the Lab to the Grid

Fusion has spent decades in the research stage. That is now starting to change. Fusion is moving from basic research toward commercial development.

Total industry funding over the years
Source: Fusion Industry Association.

Private fusion companies have raised a cumulative total of $14.24 billion globally as of July 2026, according to the Fusion Industry Association. Private funding has grown sevenfold since 2021, showing how quickly investor interest is increasing.

Governments are also putting more money into pilot plants, while private companies are raising capital to develop commercial systems.ย 

The UK-US partnership tackles several of the main barriers at once. AI and supercomputers could speed up research. Shared rules could make future projects easier to approve. Cooperation could also help companies develop common technologies and standards.

For the energy transition, the potential is large: a reliable, low-carbon power source that could eventually help meet rising electricity demand from AI, industry, and electrification.

The next milestone will be turning these partnerships and research programmes into working pilot plantsโ€”and proving that fusion can move from the laboratory to the power grid.ย 

Oracle (ORCL) Bets on AI While its Project Jupiter Redefines the Data Center Sustainability Playbook

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL)) latest earnings show how fast AI is changing its cloud business. They also point to a growing challenge. The company needs to build more data centers to meet AI demand. At the same time, it must manage the emissions, electricity, and water that come with that growth. The growth creates a major opportunity for Oracle.

But it also raises a key question: how much power and water will the company need to support the next phase of AI growth?

Oracleโ€™s AI Cloud Surge Powers a Record Quarter

Oracle reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $19.3 billion, up 30% from a year earlier. Cloud revenue rose 62% to $11.6 billion. Cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubled, rising 121% to $7.4 billion.

GAAP earnings per share increased 55% to $1.56. Adjusted EPS rose 30% to $1.92. Net income reached $4.76 billion, up 63%.

The company also added more than $30 billion in AI cloud contracts during the quarter. Its remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion.

Additionally, it delivered 850 megawatts of additional data center capacity during the quarter. It said demand for AI training and inference services still exceeds available supply.

oracle Q1 2027
Source: Oracle

ORCL Stock Faces the Cost of AI Expansion

The strong earnings came as Oracle continued to spend heavily on infrastructure. The company invested $28.5 billion in capital expenditures during the first quarter.

Oracle expects fiscal 2027 capital spending to reach about $90 billion to $95 billion. Free cash flow was negative $5 billion in the first quarter as the company continued to expand its cloud infrastructure.

This spending also has a sustainability impact.

Every new data center requires power, cooling systems, construction materials, and water. The efficiency of those systems will affect both Oracleโ€™s environmental footprint and the cost of expanding its cloud business.

On September 15, ORCL closed at about $140.35, down 3.07% for the session. Oracle shares have gone downย 16.5% over five sessions.

oracle stock
Source: Yahoo Finance

Oracleโ€™s Net-Zero Plan Covers Its Supply Chain

Oracle has set a net-zero emissions target for 2050. It also plans to cut Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions by 50% from a 2020 baseline by 2030.

The company says it will focus first on direct emissions cuts. It plans to use high-quality carbon offsets for no more than 10% of its base-year emissions that it cannot eliminate directly.

And the Exponential Roadmap Initiative has approved Oracleโ€™s targets.

oracle net zero
Source: Oracle

Scope 1, 2, and 3 Data

Oracleโ€™s latest emissions data also shows the impact of its rapid infrastructure growth. Itย reported 27,532 metric tons of Scope 1 emissions in FY2025. That was down from 29,930 tons in FY2024.

Market-based Scope 2 emissions also fell. They declined to 237,251 tons from 271,188 tons.

However, Scope 3 emissions moved in the opposite direction. They were 8.53 million metric tons in FY2025. That compares with 2.69 million tons in FY2024.

Capital goods made up about 6.96 million tons of the FY2025 Scope 3 total. This category includes emissions linked to infrastructure and equipment purchases.

oracle emissions
Source: Oracle
  • Overall, Oracle reported 8.79 million metric tons of combined Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions on a market-based basis in FY2025. The figure was 2.99 million tons in FY2024.

The increase shows how infrastructure spending can affect a cloud company’s wider carbon footprint.

Renewable Power Is Expanding

In the sustainability report, renewable electricity covered 92% of electricity used in its cloud operations in FY2025. That was up from 88% in FY2024.

Across its real estate and facilities, renewable electricity coverage reached 85%.

More importantly, Oracle has also set a target to reduce carbon emissions per megawatt of IT capacity by 20% by 2030. As AI workloads require more computing power, improving the emissions intensity of each megawatt will become more important.

oracle renewable
Source: Oracle

Water Is Becoming a Bigger Data Center Issue

Energy gets much of the attention surrounding AI data centers, but water is becoming another important constraint.

  • It used about 802 million liters of potable water in FY2025, down from approximately 824 million liters in FY2024. The company also recycled about 378 million liters of water during the same year.
  • Potable water use per square foot declined slightly to 42 liters from 43 liters.

Oracle’s sustainability strategy now includes a goal of reducing water use by 50% in water-stressed regions by 2035, relative to a 2025 baseline. The company also aims to reduce carbon emissions per megawatt of IT capacity by 20% by 2030.

The targets are becoming particularly relevant as Oracle develops larger AI-focused facilities.

oracle water
Source: Oracle

Project Jupiter Takes a Different Approach to Water

Oracle’s Project Jupiter in New Mexico provides a closer look at how the company is trying to address the environmental footprint of hyperscale computing.

The 1,400-acre campus in Doรฑa Ana County is being developed as a large-scale AI and cloud data center. Oracle has shifted the project’s power strategy toward Bloom Energy fuel-cell technology, replacing an earlier design based on gas turbines and diesel generators.

It says the fuel-cell system will significantly reduce emissions and water use compared with conventional combustion-based generation.

Water is especially important to the project because of conditions in southern New Mexico. Oracle says Project Jupiter will use non-potable water and that, averaged over 15 years including the initial fill, its water use will be equivalent to less than nine single-family homes.

The company is also trying to offset more water than the project itself consumes through local conservation.

oracle project jupiter
Source: Project Jupiter

Oracle Wants to Save More Water Than Jupiter Uses

In August, Oracle also announced a partnership with agricultural technology company Arable to improve irrigation efficiency in the Rio Grande-Bravo watershed.

  • The initiative is expected to conserve approximately 21 million gallons of water annually.
  • This amount is more than 20 times the water required to operate Project Jupiter’s cooling and power systems.

Arable will use field sensors, weather information, and crop data to help farmers make more precise irrigation decisions. Oracle says an independent third party will validate the water savings using a recognized methodology, with validation reports made public.

Oracle has also committed $50 million toward local water and wastewater infrastructure in Doรฑa Ana County.

The approach moves beyond simply reducing data center water consumption. It combines operational efficiency with investment in watershed-level conservation, which could become increasingly relevant as data center construction expands into water-stressed regions.

Expanding a Cleaner Power Mix for Jupiter

Oracle’s sustainability strategy around Project Jupiter also extends to electricity.

Recently, the company issued a request for proposals for 2 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity in New Mexico, including solar, wind, and geothermal projects. Oracle said the initiative is intended to support Project Jupiter’s goal of achieving 100% carbon-free energy matching by 2031.

As per reports, Oracle is also planning a public environmental dashboard for Project Jupiter. The dashboard is expected to provide information on water use, emissions, heat, air, noise and light once the facility is operational.

It also plans twice-yearly assessments by an independent third party comparing performance against baseline conditions and relevant standards.

For a company expanding its cloud infrastructure at triple-digit rates, greater transparency could become increasingly important.

The Bottom Line: AI Growth Is Raising the Sustainability Stakes

Oracle’s Q1 results demonstrate the scale of the AI infrastructure opportunity. Cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubled, the company’s backlog reached $664 billion, and hundreds of megawatts of additional data center capacity were brought online.

Yet the same expansion is increasing Oracle’s exposure to energy consumption, construction-related emissions, water availability and infrastructure costs.

The company’s sustainability targets therefore sit alongside a much larger business transformation. Oracle is attempting to grow its AI and cloud infrastructure while reducing the emissions intensity of its operations, expanding renewable power and addressing water use at the local watershed level.

For investors watching ORCL, the story is no longer simply about how fast Oracle can build data centers. It is also about how efficiently and sustainably the company can power them.

As AI demand continues to drive Oracle’s cloud growth, energy and water management could become increasingly important measures of how the company’s infrastructure expansion develops over the next decade.

BlackRock-Backed Skyborn Secures $2.4B for Major German Offshore Wind Farm

Skyborn Renewables has reached financial close on the Gennaker offshore wind farm, securing a โ‚ฌ2.1 billion financing package, or roughly $2.4 billion, for one of Germanyโ€™s largest new renewable energy projects. The project, located in the German Baltic Sea, will have up to 976.5 megawatts (MW) of capacity. More than โ‚ฌ3 billion in total investment is expected to be mobilized.

Gennaker will start commercial operations by the end of 2028. It aims to generate enough electricity for about 1 million German households.

The financing comes from 16 commercial lenders and the European Investment Bank (EIB). The EIB previously approved up to โ‚ฌ700 million for the project, whose total cost was estimated at about โ‚ฌ3.1 billion.

Nicola Beer, Vice-President of the European Investment Bank (EIB), noted:

โ€œGennaker shows Europe turning its cleanโ€‘energy goals into real benefits for people. Built off the coast of Mecklenburgโ€‘Western Pomerania, where winds are strong and reliable, this wind farm will help Germany produce more of its own power and lower dependence on imported energy. Once running, it will supply clean electricity to around one million homes and businesses across the country, helping to bring down energy bills from Schwerin to Munich.”

The deal is also significant for BlackRock. Skyborn is a portfolio company of Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), which has been part of BlackRock since it completed its acquisition of GIP in October 2024.

Gennaker Secures โ‚ฌ2.1B to Move Into Construction

Financial close means the major financing, supply, power sales, and ownership agreements are now in place. Skyborn developed Gennaker from the ground up and will lead construction management and long-term asset management.

The project is located about 15 kilometers north of the Fischland-DarรŸ-Zingst peninsula in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Once complete, its nearly 1 GW capacity will make it the largest offshore wind farm in Germanyโ€™s Baltic Sea.

The wind project secured its construction and operations permit in December 2025. Major supply and installation contracts were also signed for foundations, cables, and wind turbines.

Siemens Gamesa is supplying the turbines, while other contractors include EEW, Seaway 7, Boskalis, and Fred. Olsen Windcarrier. Stadtwerke Mรผnchen, or SWM, is also now a 25% equity partner in the project, leaving Skyborn with a 75% stake.

Amazon and Uniper Lock In 700 MW of Power

Gennaker has also secured major buyers for its electricity. In June, Amazon signed a 600 MW power purchase agreement (PPA) covering about 61% of the project’s total capacity. Skyborn and Amazon described it as the largest single PPA ever signed in Germany.

The long-term contract was an important step because it gives the project predictable revenue from electricity sales.

Uniper also signed a 100 MW PPA with Skyborn. The agreement runs for an initial 10 years after commercial operation, with an option to extend. Together, the two contracts cover 700 MW, or roughly 72% of Gennakerโ€™s maximum capacity.

These agreements illustrate how PPAs are becoming an important financing tool for large renewable projects. Long-term electricity contracts can provide revenue visibility that helps banks assess the project’s ability to repay debt.

Germany Needs Gennaker and Many More Like It

Gennaker arrives as Germany tries to expand offshore wind rapidly. The country has set a target of at least 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, 40 GW by 2035 and 70 GW by 2045.

Germany offshore wind capacity additions 2034

The country is also targeting 80% renewable electricity by 2030. Gennaker’s 976.5 MW would equal about 3.3% of Germany’s 2030 offshore wind target once fully operational.

The project will, therefore, make a meaningful contribution, but Germany will need many more large projects to reach its targets.

Moreover, offshore development remains challenging. Germany postponed offshore wind auctions originally planned for 2026 until 2027 as part of changes to its offshore wind development plan. The government said the delay would not affect the long-term 70 GW target for 2045.

offshore wind energy Germany map

A Large Bet on Energy Security

Offshore wind is also becoming part of Germany’s energy security strategy. The country is trying to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels while increasing domestic electricity production.

Gennaker will add nearly 1 GW of renewable capacity in the Baltic Sea and provide power to the German grid. That can help reduce the need for fossil fuel generation when wind conditions allow.

The project will also support Germanyโ€™s industrial base. It will involve European manufacturers, marine contractors, and others in the offshore wind supply chain. The EIB expects the project to create economic value in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where Gennaker is being developed.

Gennaker location
Source: Skyborn

Europeโ€™s Offshore Wind Investment Is Accelerating

Gennaker is part of a broader recovery in European offshore wind investment. Europe had 40.9 GW of offshore wind capacity by the end of June 2026, after adding 2.3 GW in the first half of the year.

Governments also awarded 8.4 GW of offshore wind capacity through auctions during the period. Germany led additions with 3.4 GW.

Investment is picking up as well. Europe raised โ‚ฌ9 billion for new wind projects in H1 2026, including about โ‚ฌ0.6 billion for offshore wind. In 2025, six large offshore projects reached final investment decisions, representing 5.6 GW and โ‚ฌ22 billion of investment.

European offshore wind installations H1 2026
Source: WindEurope

The longer-term opportunity is much larger. Nine North Sea countries signed a 2026 Investment Pact targeting 15 GW of new offshore wind each year from 2031 to 2040, with industry estimating up to โ‚ฌ1 trillion in related economic activity.

However, investment still faces challenges. Grid capacity, permitting, supply chain constraints, and higher project costs remain major barriers. That makes successful financings such as Gennaker important signals that Europe’s offshore wind market can still attract large-scale capital.

Offshore Wind Has a Direct Climate Benefit

Wind power produces electricity without the direct CO2 emissions associated with coal and natural gas generation. Replacing fossil fuel generation with renewable electricity can therefore lower power sector emissions, depending on the generation it displaces.

However, Gennaker should not be described as a carbon credit project. The wind farm will generate renewable electricity rather than voluntary carbon credits. Its climate value comes from replacing carbon-heavy electricity. It also supplies low-carbon power to the grid and contracted customers.

This distinction is important as demand for renewable energy grows alongside carbon markets.

Companies such as Amazon are increasingly using long-term PPAs to secure renewable electricity for their operations and support their emissions goals. However, a renewable energy PPA is not the same as a carbon credit purchase.

BlackRock Expands Its Renewable Infrastructure Footprint

The project also fits into a larger trend in infrastructure investment. BlackRock completed its acquisition of GIP in October 2024, creating a much larger infrastructure investment platform. At completion, the combined platform had about $170 billion in assets under management and more than 300 active investments.

GIP invests across energy, transport, digital infrastructure, and other sectors. Offshore wind matches that strategy. Projects need a lot of upfront money, but they can bring in steady income from power sales over time.

Gennaker’s financing structure shows how public and private capital can work together. Commercial banks provide most of the debt, while the EIB supports the project as a major European climate and infrastructure investment.

A Nearly 1 GW Bet on Germanyโ€™s Clean Power Future

Gennaker is moving from development to construction. For Germany, the project adds a significant amount of new offshore wind capacity as the country works toward its 30 GW target for 2030.

Skyborn, backed by BlackRock, shows how to finance big renewable projects. They combine institutional capital, bank debt, equity, and long-term power contracts.

Gennaker points out an important fact for the energy transition: to decarbonize electricity, we need billions of dollars for infrastructure first. Only then will the emissions benefits reach the grid. Projects like Gennaker will become increasingly important to Germany’s effort to expand clean power while reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.

Pentagon Backs Nevadaโ€™s Springer Project to Boost US Tungsten Supply

The U.S. is backing an effort to rebuild its tungsten supply chain as China maintains a dominant position in the global market.

The U.S. Department of War, aka the Pentagon, has committed up to $450 million to The Elmet Group (NASDAQ: ELMT), a U.S.-owned tungsten and advanced materials company. About $150 million of that government-backed investment has been designated for a transaction involving Blue Moon Metalsโ€™ (TSXV: MOON; NASDAQ: BMM) Springer Tungsten Complex in Nevada.

Blue Moon, Elmet, and Australia-listed EQ Resources (ASX: EQR) have agreed to a US$150 million investment in the Springer project, with another US$25 million set aside by Elmet and EQ Resources for additional requirements, if needed,ย to restart the project’s ammonium paratungstate (APT) plant.

The deal comes as Washington tries to reduce exposure to China-dominated critical-mineral supply chains. Tungsten is particularly important because the U.S. has not mined the metal commercially since 2015, while domestic consumption remains heavily dependent on imports.

Department of War Backs Domestic Tungsten Capacity

Pentagon announced the $450 million investment in Elmet on September 14. The funding will take the form of redeemable preferred equity and is being provided through the department’s Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program.

The government says the investment will expand domestic tungsten capacity and strengthen the industrial base supporting U.S. defense programs. Elmet currently supplies materials and components for more than 100 Department of War programs, including the F-35, Patriot PAC-3, Trident D5, Next Generation Interceptor, PrSM and Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines.

A Bigger Role for Elmet

The government also says the investment will help establish North America’s only independent APT facility, addressing a major processing gap in the U.S. tungsten supply chain. China currently accounts for an estimated 85% of global tungsten supply, according to the Department of War.

Separately, Elmet said one of its subsidiaries secured a contract worth about $2 billion from the Defense Logistics Agency to help rebuild the National Defense Stockpile. The agreement includes a guaranteed funded commitment of $150 million and covers tungsten ores, concentrates and sodium tungstate.

The two announcements give Elmet a central role in Washington’s effort to rebuild domestic tungsten capacity, from raw material supply to processing and manufacturing.

U.S. Still Depends on Tungsten Imports

The supply-chain challenge is significant.

The latest U.S. Geological Survey data show that the U.S. has had no commercial tungsten mine production since 2015. Estimated 2025 imports reached:

  • 1,700 tonnes of tungsten contained in ores and concentrates
  • 10,000 tonnes in other tungsten forms
  • More than 50% net import reliance for apparent consumption
US Tungsten
Source: USGS

USGS also estimates that China represented 26% of U.S. tungsten import sources between 2021 and 2024, followed by Germany at 14%, Bolivia at 8% and Vietnam at 8%.

TUNGSTEN
Source: USGS

The figures show why Washington is focusing on more than simply reopening a mine. The U.S. needs additional capacity across mining, processing and manufacturing if it wants to reduce exposure to overseas supply disruptions.

The supply risk has become more urgent since China introduced export controls on selected tungsten products in February 2025. USGS reported that prices climbed sharply during 2025. The average Rotterdam price for 65% tungsten concentrate increased from $252 per metric ton in 2024 to an estimated $380 in 2025.

USGS also ranks tungsten among the minerals with a high potential economic impact from supply disruption. Its 2025 assessment estimated a probability-weighted reduction of about $544 million in U.S. GDP under the modeled disruption scenario.

Springer Could Restart U.S. Tungsten Mining

Against that backdrop, the Springer project offers a potential domestic source.

ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  The Springer Mine

springer
Source: Blue Moon

Located near Imlay, Nevada, Springer historically ranked among the largest tungsten mines in the United States. The project includes open-pit and underground mining operations, a 1,200-ton-per-day mill and an APT plant designed for potential production of up to 4,000 tonnes per year.

  • Blue Moon expects the Springer mine and mill to return to production in the fourth quarter of 2027. The APT plant is expected to restart in the second half of 2028.

The project already has access to water, electricity, natural gas, and tailings capacity. It is also located a few miles from Interstate 80 and the Union Pacific rail line. Blue Moon acquired additional water rights and land in September to provide access to the rail line, with the potential for a future loading facility.

Resource Estimate Needs Further Verification

Blue Moon reports a historical mineral resource of 10.7 million tonnes grading 0.45% WOโ‚ƒ. However, the company clearly states that this is a historical estimate from prior operators and has not been verified as a current NI 43-101 resource. Further drilling is planned to update the estimate.

That distinction is important for investors because the historical resource should not be treated as a current compliant resource.

Elmet Will Control the APT Plant

The transaction is designed to connect Springer mining with downstream tungsten processing.

Elmet will provide about $150 million across the Springer-related transactions. This includes a $50 million tungsten prepayment facility for Blue Moon and a $75 million capital contribution to the joint venture that will own and operate the APT plant. Elmet will also subscribe for $25 million of new Blue Moon equity.

The APT joint venture is expected to have the following ownership:

  • Elmet: 70%
  • Blue Moon: 20%
  • EQ Resources: 10%

Phase-one APT capacity is targeted at 4,000 tonnes per year, with infrastructure planned to support blue tungsten oxide capacity and an additional leaching line. Elmet will operate the facility.

The structure gives Springer a pathway from mined tungsten concentrate to a processed product that can feed downstream U.S. manufacturing.

EQ Resources Adds Australian and Spanish Supply

EQ Resources brings an allied supply component to the project.

The Australian company operates the Mt Carbine tungsten project in Queensland and Barruecopardo in Spain. Under the agreement, EQ will take a 10% interest in the APT joint venture and enter into an offtake agreement covering 4,000 tonnes of tungsten trioxide contained in its concentrate over eight years after the APT plant begins operating.

During the first five years, EQ could use up to 25% of the APT plant’s input capacity, capped at 1,000 tonnes of production capacity per year. Springer would receive up to 75% of the input volume during that period, with additional material potentially sourced through other agreements supported by Elmet and the Department of War.

EQ is also testing its ore-sorting technology at the Springer mill. Initial results were positive, although additional testing is still required before installation is confirmed.

Building a U.S.-Aligned Tungsten Chain

The Springer deal represents one part of a broader effort to rebuild U.S. tungsten supply.

The Department of War’s $450 million commitment to Elmet, the separate potential $2 billion DLA stockpile contract, and the Springer investment all address different parts of the same vulnerability: the U.S. has significant tungsten demand but no active commercial tungsten mine.

For Blue Moon, the transaction provides funding and strategic partners to advance Springer. For Elmet, it expands control over tungsten processing and downstream manufacturing. For EQ Resources, it creates another route into the U.S. market for tungsten from allied jurisdictions.

The broader market backdrop is also becoming more supportive for new Western supply. Global tungsten mine production reached an estimated 85,000 tonnes in 2025, according to USGS, while China remained the world’s leading producer, importer and consumer of tungsten concentrates.

Springer will not eliminate U.S. import dependence on its own. But if Blue Moon meets its development targets, the project could become an important domestic source of tungsten concentrate and APT.

The bigger investment story is the attempt to rebuild the entire supply chain, from Nevada mining to North American processing and U.S. defense manufacturing, at a time when China continues to dominate the global tungsten market.

EPA Rolls Back Carbon Rules for Coal and Gas Plants in Major U.S. Climate Shift

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has moved to dismantle federal limits on carbon emissions from coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, marking a major shift in U.S. climate policy.

On September 14, 2026, the EPA finalized a repeal of most of the greenhouse gas requirements in the Biden administrationโ€™s 2024 power plant rule. At the same time, it proposed removing the remaining federal greenhouse gas standards for fossil-fuel power plants.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the changes will reduce costs and make it easier to expand U.S. power generation. The agency estimates that the finalized repeal could save the power sector and consumers up to $310 billion. Additionally, the proposed repeal might save another $370 million in compliance costs over 20 years.

The move comes as the U.S. faces rising electricity demand from data centers, manufacturing, and other industries. But it also removes a major federal tool for cutting power-sector emissions.

What the EPA Is Repealing

The Biden EPA finalized its Carbon Pollution Standards in April 2024. The rules covered existing coal-fired plants and new natural gas-fired power plants. The agency wrote:

“U.S. EPA is repealing the most burdensome greenhouse gas emissions standards from the EPAโ€™s 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards (CPS), while simultaneously working to cement long-term energy prosperity by proposing to repeal the remaining Obama-Biden Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission standards for the power sector.”

For existing coal plants, the rules relied heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) for units planning to operate for longer periods. New long-term natural gas plants also faced emissions limits based on technologies including CCS and lower-carbon fuels.

The Trump EPA now says those requirements were too costly and depended on technologies that are not available at the required scale. The agency specifically determined that 90% carbon capture was not adequately demonstrated or cost-effective for coal plants.

It also rejected natural gas co-firing as an appropriate emissions-control approach for existing coal units. Most of these requirements have now been removed.

The EPA is asking for public feedback on a plan to remove all remaining greenhouse gas standards for fossil-fuel power plants. This is under Section 111 of the Clean Air Act. That part is still a proposal, rather than a final repeal.

EPA Says Repeal Will Lower Energy Costs

The Trump administration argues that the rules could have forced utilities to spend heavily on emissions controls or retire plants earlier than planned. The EPA says repealing them will reduce compliance costs and make it easier to build and operate coal and natural gas generation.

Its September 2026 fact sheet estimates up to $310 billion in savings from the finalized repeal. It says the changes will also reduce barriers to new power projects and support greater use of domestic coal and natural gas. This argument comes as electricity demand is rising.

EPA Says Repeal Will Lower Energy Costs
Source: EPA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects electricity generation to reach new records in 2026 and 2027. It forecasts natural gas to provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation in 2026, while coal’s share falls to about 16%.

Data centers are one source of the increase. Manufacturing growth and higher cooling demand are also adding pressure to the grid.

US annual electricity generation by source EIA
Source: EIA

U.S. Power Emissions Jump as Electricity Demand Grows

The timing of the repeal is important because U.S. power sector emissions increased in 2025. EIA estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector rose 4%, or 58 million metric tons, in 2025.

  • Electricity generation increased by 3%, while coal-fired generation jumped 13%.
Total U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Coal-related power emissions rose by 78 million metric tons during the year. That increase reversed part of the longer decline in U.S. power-sector emissions.

Natural gas remains the largest source of U.S. electricity generation, but coal still produces much more CO2 per unit of electricity. EIA expects coal’s share of generation to decline over the next two years as scheduled retirements continue, even as overall power demand grows.

This means the EPA rollback does not guarantee a major increase in coal generation. Market forces, plant economics and the growth of lower-cost renewable power will continue to influence the generation mix.

Biden EPA Projected Large Emissions Cuts

The disagreement over the rules is partly about their expected climate benefits.

The 2024 EPA analysis projected that the standards would reduce power sector carbon pollution by 1.38 billion metric tons between 2028 and 2047. It also estimated up to $370 billion in climate and public health net benefits over two decades.

The agency’s analysis predicts that by 2035, the rules could reduce annual power sector CO2 emissions by 123 million metric tons. This is compared to a scenario without the standards. Those projected benefits will now largely disappear if the federal standards are fully removed.

The Trump EPA disputes the earlier estimates and argues that the rules relied on unrealistic technology assumptions and would have imposed unnecessary costs. The difference reflects two very different views of how the U.S. should decarbonize its electricity system.

CCS Loses a Major Policy Driver

The repeal also has implications for the U.S. carbon capture market. The 2024 rules helped create a potential market for CCS at coal and gas plants because some facilities would have needed major emissions reductions to comply.

Removing those requirements weakens one of the strongest federal policy drivers for power sector CCS. Yet, that does not mean CCS development will stop.

Federal tax incentives for carbon capture remain available, and companies in sectors such as cement, steel, chemicals and natural gas processing continue to explore the technology. However, power plants now have less regulatory pressure to install expensive capture systems.

For the carbon market, this is an important distinction. Capturing and permanently storing CO2 from a fossil fuel power plant is not automatically the same as generating a tradable voluntary carbon credit. Its value may instead come through regulatory compliance, tax incentives or corporate climate claims, depending on the project.

States and Corporate Buyers Can Still Push Cleaner Power

The federal rollback does not end climate regulation across the United States. States can maintain their own emissions rules, renewable energy standards and climate policies.

California and other states already have systems that require significant reductions in power-sector emissions. Utilities also face pressure from investors, customers and large electricity buyers.

Technology companies building data centers are increasingly looking for cleaner electricity to meet their own emissions targets. That creates another market force supporting renewable energy, storage and low-carbon generation even as federal climate rules are weakened.

The U.S. power market will likely stay split. Some states and companies are pushing for lower-carbon electricity. Meanwhile, federal policy supports more fossil fuel development.

What the EPA Rollback Means for Carbon Markets

The EPAโ€™s decision could have effects well beyond power plants. The U.S. electric power sector produced about 1.485 billion metric tons of energy-related CO2 in 2025, making it a major source of emissions.

Removing federal carbon limits could make deeper emissions cuts harder and change investment decisions across coal, gas, renewables, storage and carbon capture. It also highlights the importance of policy risk for carbon markets, where project economics can depend on regulations, tax credits and carbon prices.

The move marks a major shift from the Biden administrationโ€™s approach, which used emissions standards to push utilities toward cleaner technologies. The Trump administration argues those rules would raise costs and threaten power reliability.

Meanwhile, electricity demand is rising due to data centers, manufacturing and electrification. Solar, wind, storage and natural gas will compete to meet that growth, while EIA still expects coalโ€™s share of U.S. generation to decline.

The key question is whether market forces, state policies and corporate clean energy demand will continue to reduce emissionsโ€”or whether the federal rollback will slow that progress.

Google Targets Rice Methane Emissions in India with 1 Million Carbon Credits

Google is expanding its focus on methane emissions with a new agreement to purchase 1 million carbon credits from Mitti Labs, a climate technology startup working with smallholder rice farmers in India.

The four-year agreement will support the rollout of water-saving irrigation practices across more than 100,000 hectares of rice farms by 2030. The program is expected to involve more than 70,000 farmers and reduce methane emissions from rice cultivation while cutting water use.

The deal is Googleโ€™s largest superpollutant elimination agreement to date. It also adds to the technology giantโ€™s growing carbon removal strategy, which includes investments in durable carbon removal, nature-based projects and solutions targeting gases other than COโ‚‚.

Why Methane Matters for Climate Action

Methane is particularly important because it has a much stronger warming effect than COโ‚‚ over shorter time periods.

The gas remains in the atmosphere for roughly a decade before breaking down. As a result, reducing methane emissions can slow near-term warming more quickly than cutting emissions of longer-lived greenhouse gases alone.

Agriculture is one of the largest sources of human-caused methane, with livestock and rice cultivation among the key contributors.

methane emissions

Rice Farming Adds to Water Stress

Rice cultivation is a major source of agricultural methane.

Much of the crop is grown in regions where water resources are already under pressure. Continuous flooding can require significant amounts of irrigation water, adding another challenge for farmers and local water systems.

methane emissions AWD RICE Emissions
Source: International Rice Research Institute

How Mitti Labs Is Reducing Rice Methane Emissions

Rice cultivation is a major source of human-caused methane emissions. Traditional rice farming often keeps fields continuously flooded. Under these oxygen-poor conditions, microbes in the soil produce methane, which then escapes into the atmosphere.

Mitti Labs is addressing this problem through a technique known as Alternate Wetting and Drying, or AWD.

Instead of keeping rice fields flooded throughout the growing season, farmers periodically drain the fields before reflooding them. This changes the conditions in the soil and limits methane production.

According to Mitti Labs, AWD can:

  • Cut methane emissions from rice fields by up to 50%.
  • Reduce irrigation water use by close to 40%.
  • Maintain rice yields when properly implemented.

The approach therefore offers two benefits at the same time. Farmers can reduce the amount of water needed to grow rice while also lowering emissions from their fields.

For Google, the project provides a way to address a potent greenhouse gas while supporting agricultural communities.

3 Million Tonnes of COโ‚‚ Savings

Mitti Labs says its program could save about 1.5 trillion liters of water as AWD expands across the targeted farmland. The company compares the volume with roughly three years of Bengaluruโ€™s annual water supply.

The climate impact is also significant. The company estimates that the program could eliminate the equivalent of 3 million tonnes of COโ‚‚ over 20 years. Using the conventional 100-year global warming potential approach, the impact is equivalent to about 1 million tonnes of COโ‚‚e.

The different figures reflect the way methane is measured over different time horizons rather than a change in the underlying emissions reduction.

Mitti Labs’ Satellite Technology Helps Verify Results

Scaling AWD across thousands of small farms presents a measurement challenge. Farmers operate individual plots, and field conditions can change throughout the growing season.

Mitti Labs uses satellite technology and field data to monitor these changes.

  • Its GeoAI platform combines satellite radar imagery with information collected directly from farms. The system can track factors such as flooding, soil moisture, and crop conditions at the individual field level.

The company developed the technology with support from NASA and uses remote sensing to monitor large agricultural areas without relying entirely on physical inspections.

This is important for carbon markets because buyers need evidence that projects are actually delivering the claimed emissions reductions.

Mitti Labs combines its satellite-based monitoring with on-the-ground data and farmer engagement. The approach is designed to verify whether farmers are adopting AWD and whether the changes are producing the expected environmental benefits.

ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย Mitti Labs next-gen dMRV

mitti labs dmrv
Source: Mitti Labs

Methane Credits Get Sylvera A Rating

The company says its methane credits have received an A rating from carbon ratings agency Sylvera, reflecting the strength of its implementation and measurement approach.

Google Builds a Broader Superpollutant Strategy

The Mitti Labs agreement is part of a wider shift in Googleโ€™s climate strategy.

  • The company has increasingly looked beyond conventional COโ‚‚ removal to gases that can produce significant near-term warming. In 2025, Google contracted for 1 million tonnes of superpollutant credits
  • It also announced plans to spend at least $50 million through 2030 on projects targeting methane, fluorinated gases and other non-COโ‚‚ greenhouse gases.

google carbon removal

Google has also worked on methane monitoring for more than a decade.

Its efforts have included partnerships focused on identifying methane leaks, supporting satellite-based monitoring and backing the development of artificial intelligence tools that can detect methane emissions.

The strategy reflects a broader recognition that climate action does not have to rely on one type of solution.

Reducing methane can deliver relatively rapid climate benefits, while removing COโ‚‚ from the atmosphere can address the longer-term accumulation of carbon dioxide.

Carbon Removal Portfolio Tops 1.3 Million Tonnes

In 2025, the company signed 16 carbon removal agreements worth more than $100 million. Those contracts covered around 600,000 tonnes of COโ‚‚ removal.

  • Combined with earlier commitments, Googleโ€™s contracted carbon removal portfolio exceeded 1.3 million tonnes of COโ‚‚ by the end of 2025.
  • And its carbon reduction initiatives avoided over 58 million tCO2e in 2025.

The portfolio spans different approaches, including long-duration carbon removal and nature-based solutions. As explained before, targeting methane and other superpollutants is also a significant part of Googleโ€™s net zero plan.

google emissions carbon removal
Source: Google

This creates a broader climate strategy built around different timescales. Methane reductions can help limit near-term warming, while durable carbon removal aims to keep COโ‚‚ out of the atmosphere for much longer periods.

Agriculture Could Become a Larger Climate Solution

The Google-Mitti Labs agreement also highlights agriculture’s growing role in carbon markets.

Rice farmers do not need to completely change how they grow the crop. Instead, AWD modifies how they manage water during cultivation.

It could make the approach easier to scale, particularly in regions where farmers already face water shortages and rising climate risks.

For carbon markets, however, scale will need to be matched with strong measurement. Projects involving thousands of smallholder farms must demonstrate that emission reductions are real, measurable, and sustained.

Mitti Labs is betting that satellite monitoring and field-level data can help solve that challenge.

If the program reaches its target of more than 100,000 hectares, it could become a major example of how digital technology can connect smallholder agriculture with climate finance.

For Google, the agreement adds another piece to a carbon strategy that is moving beyond traditional COโ‚‚ removal. And for the carbon market, it shows how methane reduction, water conservation, and agricultural finance can increasingly overlap in a single project.

Googleโ€™s Big Energy Bet on Finland: 22-Year Fortum Deal Brings Nuclear, Renewables and Storage Together

Google is taking a long-term stake in Finlandโ€™s low-carbon energy future. The technology giant has signed a 22-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Finnish utility Fortum covering up to 50% of the generation capacity of the Loviisa nuclear power plant.

The press release says that the agreement will help Fortum finance investments needed to extend Loviisaโ€™s operating life through 2050. It will also support a planned power upgrade at the plant.

Finlandโ€™s Electricity Demand is Rising, But Emissions are Falling

Finland consumed 85 TWh of electricity in 2025, up 2% from 2024. Industry accounted for 42% of demand, while households, services, buildings and agriculture made up most of the rest. Industrial electricity use rose 2.6% during the year.

At the same time, 96% of Finlandโ€™s electricity came from COโ‚‚-neutral sources in 2025, up from 95% in 2024. Here’s the chart showing the share:

low carbon electricity

  • This cleaner power mix has helped cut emissions sharply. COโ‚‚ emissions from electricity generation fell to 2 million tonnes in 2025, down 10% from 2024 and 88% from 2010.
  • Emissions from electricity and district heating also fell to 3.9 million tonnes in 2025, down 31% from the previous year and 88% from the 2003 peak.

carbon emission

The Loviisa Deal Puts Nuclear at the Center

The most important part of the partnership is the long-term PPA.

  • The agreement starts in 2028 with a smaller contracted capacity. From 2030 through 2049, Google will contract up to 50% of Loviisaโ€™s generation capacity.

It gives Fortum something particularly valuable for a large nuclear investment: long-term revenue visibility.

Fortum is already pursuing an approximately โ‚ฌ1 billion investment program to extend Loviisaโ€™s operating life to 2050. About โ‚ฌ700 million of the required capital expenditure is still pending investment decisions.

The Google agreement provides additional certainty to move ahead with those investments. This matters significantly because Loviisa is not a marginal asset for Finland.

ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  Loviisa nuclear plant

Loviisa nuclear plant
Source: Fortum

Keeping 10% of Finlandโ€™s power online

The plant currently provides about 10% of Finlandโ€™s electricity and employs approximately 580 people. Without the lifetime extension investment program, Loviisa would not be able to continue operating beyond 2030.

Extending the plant to 2050 therefore allows Finland to retain a large source of reliable, fossil-free electricity instead of losing that capacity at the end of the current operating period.

Additionally, the agreement could also increase the plantโ€™s output. Fortum already has plans for a 38-megawatt capacity increase, expected to be operational in 2028. The new partnership with Google could support an additional 10 MW increase.

For Finlandโ€™s electricity system, keeping existing nuclear generation online while adding capacity can help strengthen supply without waiting years for entirely new large-scale generation projects.

Googleโ€™s Finland Bet Goes Beyond Nuclear Power

But the partnership goes beyond nuclear power.

The companies have also agreed to explore new nuclear generation, renewable energy and flexibility solutions. The companies are effectively building a broader framework for expanding reliable, low-carbon electricity across Finland.

  • Google plans to invest โ‚ฌ13 billion in Finland during 2027 and 2028. The investment will include data centers, supporting infrastructure and partnerships in Hamina, Muhos, Vaala and Kajaani.

Fortum has an 8 GW renewable pipeline in the Nordic countries currently in the permitting phase. The company aims to have 1.2 GW of ready-to-build renewable projects and 2.5 GW of new flexibility services and generation assets ready to deploy by the end of 2028.

Googleโ€™s partnership could help create demand for some of that future capacity and create a much broader clean-energy strategy.

The companies also want to explore how nuclear, renewable energy and flexibility technologies can work together as electricity demand changes. However, for Fortum, the immediate focus is clear: keep a major source of Finlandโ€™s fossil-free electricity online for another two decades.

Batteries join the equation

The first example is already taking shape in Kajaani. The deal will helpย optimize a new 94 MW battery storage system that Google has contracted for near its new data center.

Battery storage can help balance variable renewable generation and provide additional flexibility to the electricity system. Itย makes the partnership broader than a traditional nuclear PPA.

Googleโ€™s Clean-Energy Portfolio is Expanding

The Fortum agreement also fits into Googleโ€™s rapidly expanding clean-energy portfolio.

  • In 2025, Google struck more than 12 GW of net-new clean energy deals. It was the companyโ€™s largest annual clean-energy procurement and exceeded the combined amount it contracted during the previous two years.

Since 2010, it has signed more than 240 clean-energy agreements representing nearly 35 GW of capacity. It also reported a 37% increase in electricity demand in 2025.

  • Despite that increase, Google said it reduced operational emissions by 2% and matched 100% of its electricity consumption with renewable energy purchases for the ninth consecutive year.
  • Its energy, hardware and computing-efficiency initiatives also avoided more than 58 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2025.
clean energy google
Source: Google

The Nuclear Strategy Extends Beyond Finland

The Loviisa agreement is not Googleโ€™s only nuclear commitment. The company has signed landmark nuclear agreements earlier, and they are:

  • Kairos Power: Googleโ€™s 2024 agreement supports up to 500 MW of advanced nuclear capacity by 2035. Its Hermes 2 project in Tennessee is expected to supply up to 50 MW to the TVA grid from 2030.
  • Elementl Power: In 2025, Google agreed to provide early-stage funding for three potential U.S. nuclear sites, each targeting at least 600 MW, with an option to purchase future power.
  • Commonwealth Fusion Systems: Google has invested in the fusion company as part of its strategy to support next-generation clean energy. The partnership aims to advance fusion power toward commercial deployment.
  • TAE Technologies: Google has also invested in TAE Technologies, supporting its efforts to develop fusion energy. TAE is pursuing a compact fusion approach designed to produce reliable, carbon-free power.

Geothermal, storage and fusion broaden the bet

In Taiwan, Google signed geothermal agreements expected to add 10 MW of always-on geothermal power to the grid and made an equity investment in Baseload Capital.

Google is also supporting long-duration energy storage through its partnership with Energy Dome. Its CO2 Battery technology is designed to store renewable electricity and discharge it over eight to 24 hours.

Together, however, they show Google’s willingness to support a wide range of technologies that could contribute to a more resilient low-carbon electricity system.

google clean energy
Source: Google

A Nordic Model for Clean Energy

The Loviisa deal shows how big companies can support the wider energy transition, not just buy clean electricity. Googleโ€™s long-term demand gives Fortum greater certainty to keep Loviisa running through 2050 and develop new renewable, storage and nuclear capacity.

Googleโ€™s โ‚ฌ13 billion investment in Finland adds to this strategy by expanding its footprint and supporting the countryโ€™s low-carbon energy system. The partnership could become a model for using corporate demand and investment to strengthen clean energy infrastructure across Finland and the Nordic region.

Philippines Builds Forest Carbon Roadmap as New Climate Target Raises Demand for Finance

The Philippines is moving to turn its forests into a larger source of climate finance as it takes on a tougher emissions target. The country has a 2026โ€“2030 roadmap for the voluntary forest carbon market. It is creating the registry, monitoring systems, and policies to draw in private investment for forests.

The move comes just days after the Philippines submitted its updated 2026 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UN climate process.

The new NDC keeps the country’s 75% emissions reduction and avoidance target, but changes the structure. The target now covers 2025โ€“2035 and includes forestry and other land use (FOLU).

Of the 75% target, 7% is unconditional, while 68% depends on international support. That makes forest carbon more than a conservation opportunity. It could become one tool for helping the Philippines secure investment needed to deliver its broader climate targets.

Philippines Puts Forests at the Center of Its Climate Strategy

The Philippines’ new NDC gives forests a much larger role in its emissions pathway. The 2026 NDC covers energy, transport, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, and forestry and other land use.

Updated government modelling shows the FOLU sector has been a net carbon sink since 2020. The NDC estimates that FOLU policies could reduce cumulative emissions by about 2.3 billion tonnes of COโ‚‚e between 2025 and 2035 compared with the business-as-usual pathway.

With all identified policies and measures, the country is projected to become a net sink over the 2025โ€“2035 period. That makes protecting and expanding the forest carbon sink important to the country’s overall climate strategy.

The NDC commits the Philippines to fully use this sink. This will happen through forest protection, reforestation, and sustainable land management.

DENR Forest Management Bureau Assistant Director Ray Thomas Kabigting remarked:

“FMB is ready to converse with the business sector in a more scaled-up way wherein weโ€™re talking about financing, we can already understand balance sheets, and we can produce policies that are actually aligned with business concepts and business science rather than just pure forestry science.”

A Five-Year Roadmap for Forest Carbon

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) formally adopted its Roadmap to Readiness in the Voluntary Forest Carbon Market 2026โ€“2030 through Administrative Order No. 2026-02.

The roadmap identifies four priorities:

  1. Policy and regulatory frameworks,
  2. Data, monitoring, reporting, and verification,
  3. Institutional capacity, and
  4. Sustainable financing and market development.

The goal is to make the Philippines more attractive for high-quality forest carbon projects while creating safeguards around carbon ownership, benefit sharing, and environmental integrity.

The roadmap also calls for a DENR Forest Carbon Credit Database that will track forest carbon projects and credits. It is designed to connect with a broader national carbon registry being developed under the country’s Article 6 framework. This infrastructure matters because buyers increasingly want evidence that credits are real, additional, and not counted twice.

7.23 Million Hectares Give the Philippines a Major Carbon Asset

The economic opportunity is significant. The DENR roadmap estimates that the Philippines has about 7.23 million hectares of remaining forest, equal to roughly 24% of the country’s land area.

The document estimates that around one-third is closed-canopy forest and two-thirds is open forest. These forests provide more than carbon storage. They also protect watersheds, reduce soil erosion, support biodiversity, and provide livelihoods for local communities.

However, forest finance remains a major challenge. The roadmap says global investment in forests is about $2.2 billion per year. Still, the world needs over $450 billion annually to reach forest and climate goals.

Carbon finance can help bridge that gap. It creates revenue linked to clear forest protection and restoration efforts. The Philippines is thus trying to move from short-term conservation funding toward longer-term investment models.

The Forest Carbon Market Is Still Small, but the Pipeline Is Growing

Despite the potential, the Philippine forest carbon market remains small. The DENR roadmap says there were no nationally issued carbon credits at the time of its stocktake. Existing credits had been issued through international standards.

The government identified two projects registered under Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard, with four additional projects in the pipeline. At least nine other forest carbon projects were also identified outside the Verra system.

Some projects are in Mindanao. Other opportunities are being looked into in areas with community forest agreements, ancestral domains, and other forest tenure arrangements.

The roadmap highlights 1.2 million hectares of classified forest land as key investment areas. These areas are prioritized for reforestation, agroforestry, and other forest-based development.

Another 1.5 million hectares are being assessed for possible release for future development. That could significantly expand the potential project pipeline. But land tenure, carbon rights, and benefit sharing remain important hurdles.

Philippines Builds Forest Carbon Roadmap

CarbonPH Pushes the ASEAN Opportunity

This is where the recent CarbonPH Coalition initiative becomes important. At a CarbonPH Coalition Education Series session, DENR officials shared their plans. They aim to strengthen forest carbon project registration. They will also establish carbon baselines and expand monitoring.

The DENR Forest Management Bureau is creating a registry to track projects and credits. They are also using satellite monitoring to enhance verification.

The Philippines is also seeking a stronger position in the ASEAN Common Carbon Framework (ACCF). The country is an observer right now, while the regional initiative is focused on building a stronger carbon market. It aims to improve supply integrity, boost demand, and ensure interoperability.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says annual investment in nature-based solutions must nearly triple by 2030, reaching more than $542 billion a year. This funding will be critical to meet global climate, biodiversity, and land restoration goals.

At the same time, demand for high-quality nature-based carbon projects is growing. Forest protection (REDD), reforestation (ARR), and mangrove restoration remain major sources of nature-based carbon credits. Buyers are increasingly looking for projects backed by strong science, reliable monitoring, and clear benefits for local communities.

nature based credits Allied Offsets
Source: Allied Offsets

That could give Philippine forest projects access to a wider pool of regional buyers if standards and systems become more connected.

Regional competition is already growing. Malaysia has a government-supported carbon exchange. Indonesia and Thailand are also building their carbon market systems. For the Philippines, credible forest projects could become a way to compete on quality rather than simply price.

Carbon Finance Must Also Deliver for Communities

Scaling forest carbon will require more than satellites and registries. The DENR roadmap identifies benefit sharing as a major gap.

Developers must submit benefit-sharing plans. However, the roadmap notes that more guidance is needed on revenue distribution. That issue matters a lot. Many potential projects affect communities, forest tenure holders, and Indigenous Peoples.

The roadmap calls for stronger safeguards and recognition of Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) where projects affect ancestral lands and domains. The credibility of Philippine forest credits depends on two things:

  • How much carbon they remove or avoid, and if local communities gain real benefits.ย ย 

The forest carbon roadmap fits directly into the Philippines’ broader climate finance challenge. The new NDC says implementation depends on access to accessible, predictable, and adequate international support.ย 

That means finance, technology, and capacity building are not secondary issues. They are central to delivering the country’s climate commitment. Carbon markets could become one part of that financing mix.

The new NDC also recognizes Article 6 mechanisms as tools for international cooperation and resource mobilization. Any international transfers, however, will require strong governance, monitoring, and safeguards against double counting.

Forest Carbon Could Link Climate Goals and Investment

The Philippines now has two pieces of a potentially important climate finance strategy. The 2026 NDC places the country’s forest sink directly inside its emissions pathway.

The CarbonPH Coalition is adding a private-sector platform to connect those developments with emerging ASEAN carbon markets. But the opportunity is still at an early stage.

The country needs clearer carbon rights, reliable monitoring, workable tenure rules and transparent benefit sharing before forest carbon can scale. It also needs international finance to help develop projects that may not be commercially viable on carbon revenue alone.

If those pieces come together, Philippine forests could play a larger role in both emissions reduction and climate finance.

The bigger test is whether the country can turn its millions of hectares of remaining forest and its expanding carbon market infrastructure into credible, investable climate assets while ensuring that communities and ecosystems share in the value.

Canada Investment Summit 2026: Can $1 Trillion Drive a Critical Minerals Mining Boom?

Canada is putting mining and critical minerals at the centre of a new push to attract global investment. Prime Minister Mark Carney hosted Canadaโ€™s first Investment Summit in Toronto on September 14โ€“15, bringing together global investors and Canadian companies as Ottawa seeks to catalyze C$1 trillion in investment over the next five years.

The governmentโ€™s investment prospectus features 167 projects across eight sectors, with mining and metals accounting for 63 projects, the largest category in the portfolio. The projects span commodities including copper, lithium, graphite, gold and other minerals considered important to energy, technology and national security supply chains.

The focus on mining comes as governments and manufacturers look to diversify critical-mineral supply chains away from concentrated sources of production and processing.

For Canada, the opportunity is not simply to increase mine output. It is to attract the capital needed to build mines, processing facilities and infrastructure while keeping the environmental footprint of new production under control.

Mining Leads Canadaโ€™s Investment Pitch

The scale of the mining presence at the summit is significant.

As said before, of the 167 projects in the federal prospectus, 63 are in mining and metals. That makes the sector the largest component of Canada’s investment pitch to global institutional investors.

Canada already has a large and established mining economy.

Natural Resources Canada says the country produced more than 60 minerals and metals worth C$64.3 billion in 2024. Metals accounted for more than half of that value, with gold alone contributing about 26%.

Canada is also a leading global producer of several critical minerals and ranked among the world’s major producers of uranium and palladium. The broader minerals sector directly employed approximately 438,000 people in 2024.

However, developing new deposits requires substantial upfront capital. Long permitting timelines, infrastructure requirements and the need for processing capacity can also make projects difficult to finance.

Ottawa is increasingly using government-backed capital to help bridge that gap.

Canada Mining
Source: Canada Govt

C$140 Million backs Ontarioโ€™s Generation Mining Marathon Project

Canada Growth Fund announced a commitment of approximately C$140 million to Generation Mining (TSXV: GENM) to support the development of the Marathon Project in northwestern Ontario. The investment is intended to help advance the project toward construction and mobilize additional private capital.

The Marathon Project is a large copper-palladium development that also contains platinum, gold and silver.

Generation Mining announced separately that it has now assembled approximately US$1.3 billion in project financing for construction. The package includes the Canada Growth Fund investment, approximately US$50 million from the Canada Infrastructure Bank, senior and subordinated debt and metal-streaming arrangements.

The project is expected to enter early construction work in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to the company’s financing arrangements and construction conditions.

Marathon is important beyond its individual production potential because it could strengthen Canada’s domestic critical-minerals chain.

The company has an agreement with Glencore to purchase the project’s polymetallic concentrate, providing a potential route into existing Canadian processing infrastructure.

Frontier Lithium’s PAK Lithium Project Adds Another Layer

Lithium is another major theme in Canada’s investment push. Frontier Lithium’s PAK Lithium Project in northwestern Ontario has been included in the Canada Investment Summit prospectus and Ontario’s Deal Book. The company described PAK as the only lithium project included in Ontario’s investment portfolio.

Other projects are also seeking to connect Canadian mineral resources with international battery supply chains.

  • E3 Lithium, for example, recently signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with India’s Epsilon Advanced Materials to potentially supply up to 5,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year from its Clearwater project in Alberta over five years.

The agreement highlights another part of Canada’s strategy: using its mineral resources to build relationships with buyers outside the U.S.

Canadaโ€™s Mining Output is Already Substantial

Canada’s critical-minerals investment strategy is being built on an existing mining base.

The value of Canadian mineral production reached C$64.3 billion in 2024, although that was down from C$70.4 billion in 2023. Natural Resources Canada says metals production increased by 1%, while non-metals and coal declined, largely because of lower coal and potash prices.

canada mining critical mineral
Source: The Mining Association of Canada | The Mining Story 2026

The country therefore has an established workforce, mining expertise, capital markets and infrastructure that can support a new generation of projects.

The challenge is scaling that system quickly enough.

CANADA mining critical minerals

The Emissions Challenge is Harder to Ignore

Canada’s mining expansion also comes with a climate challenge.

The country’s latest National Inventory Report, released in 2026 and covering emissions through 2024, puts Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions at approximately 685 million tonnes of CO2e in 2024. Itย was about 10% below the 2005 level of 763 Mt CO2e.

Mining’s emissions require more careful interpretation.

Itsย stationary combustion emissions were about 5.5 Mt CO2e in 2024. This figure covers emissions from stationary fuel combustion and should not be treated as the industry’s entire carbon footprint.

Mining and quarrying also appear within broader energy-sector categories that include other activities.

For example, Canada’s facility-level reporting system groups mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction together. Those facilities reported approximately 126 Mt CO2e in 2024. However, that number should not be described as mining’s standalone emissions because the category includes the much larger oil and gas industry.

This distinction matters as Canada promotes new mining investment.

CANADA EMISSION
Source: Govt of Canada

The country wants to increase production of the minerals needed for electrification and energy technologies while also reducing the emissions intensity of the economy.

Low-carbon power could become a mining advantage

Canada has one potential advantage in that race: electricity.

Several major mining provinces have access to large amounts of hydroelectric or nuclear power. That could help mines reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, particularly for electricity-intensive processing.

For investors and industrial buyers, the carbon footprint of mineral production could become increasingly important. Copper, lithium, nickel, graphite and other minerals may be essential to the energy transition, but producing them still requires energy, transportation and processing.

This creates an opportunity for Canada to compete not only on resource availability but also on the potential carbon intensity of supply.

A Race for Capital, Not Just Minerals

Overall, the Canada Investment Summit highlights a clear opportunity for the countryโ€™s critical-minerals sector. Canada has the resources and mining expertise. Now, it needs capital, infrastructure, and faster project development.

With 63 mining and metals projects in the summit prospectus, Ottawa is betting that its C$1 trillion investment ambition can turn mineral wealth into new domestic supply chains and lower-carbon growth.

The question now is whether Canada can bring these projects into production fast enough, while keeping their environmental footprint competitive.

Brazil Eyes China as Carbon Credit Buyer Ahead of Potential COP31 Accord

Brazil is looking to China as a potential buyer of its carbon credits as it works to build a stronger international carbon market. Brazilian officials are preparing for talks with China that could lead to a bilateral carbon market agreement by COP31 in November. The discussions will focus on whether China could purchase Brazilian Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

The talks come as Brazil builds its own regulated carbon market and China expands the worldโ€™s largest emissions trading system. A deal would connect two major emerging carbon markets and could create a new channel for climate finance in Brazil.

Brazil Targets China for Carbon Credit Demand

Brazil will send a carbon market delegation to Wuhan from September 14 to 18. Officials from Brazil, China, and the European Union will meet there as part of a larger carbon market coalition.

Brazilโ€™s Ministry of Finance confirmed that the Wuhan meetings will include bilateral discussions between Brazil and China on carbon markets. The talks follow earlier discussions at the China-Brazil High-Level Coordination and Cooperation Committee, or COSBAN, held in Beijing in June.

Brazilian carbon market officials are also exploring whether China could become a buyer of Brazilian ITMOs.

If it works, this deal would be important. China lacks an official bilateral ITMO trading agreement with any other country, according to Brazilian officials mentioned by Reuters.

Brazil wants to move quickly enough to potentially announce an agreement at COP31 in Antalya, Tรผrkiye, which runs from November 9 to 20. However, talks have not yet resulted in a finalized deal. The two countries still need to agree on the rules, eligible projects, and other conditions for any future transfers.

Brazil Is Building Its Own Carbon Market

The push toward international carbon trading comes as Brazil develops its domestic carbon market. The nation established the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) through Law No. 15,042 in December 2024. The system aims to build a regulated market for emissions and carbon assets. It also supports the countryโ€™s climate goals.

The government is now working through the detailed rules needed to make the system operational.

In July, Brazil opened a public consultation on rules for international carbon credit transfers. The proposal allows Brazil to join Article 6 cooperation but limits overseas mitigation transfers.

The proposed framework includes a global ceiling of 50 million tonnes of COโ‚‚ equivalent (MtCOโ‚‚e) for international transfers. The limit could later be adjusted based on Brazilโ€™s emissions and the economic performance of the mechanism. The proposed rules apply to mitigation outcomes generated during 2031โ€“2035.

brazil ghg emissions trading system
Source: SBCE

Brazil is setting up the legal framework for international carbon trading. However, large-scale exports of ITMOs wonโ€™t happen right away.

Why ITMOs Matter

ITMOs are different from ordinary voluntary carbon credits. Under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, countries can cooperate directly and transfer mitigation outcomes toward their climate targets. These transfers need accounting rules. This stops both countries from counting the same emissions reductions.

Carbon Credit generation article 6
Source: UNFCCC

This is where the corresponding adjustment becomes important.

When Brazil authorizes a mitigation outcome for export, it must make the required adjustment to its emissions accounting. This prevents Brazil from using the same reduction toward its own nationally determined contribution (NDC) after another country has used it toward its target.

For Brazil, the system could turn high-quality emissions reductions and removals into a source of international climate finance. The country must choose wisely which reductions to send abroad. It needs to meet its own climate goals too.

Ana Paula Cavalcante, Brazil’s deputy secretary, said:

“Both the coalition and the closer relationship with China can help scale up carbon markets and unlock investment flows for Brazil โ€‹as it seeks to reindustrialize around new technologies.”

Chinaโ€™s Carbon Market Is Expanding

China represents an important potential buyer because its domestic carbon market is becoming larger and more sophisticated. Its national emissions trading system covered 3,378 companies in 2025, including power, steel, cement, and aluminum producers.

Those companies took part in a market that traded 865 million tonnes of carbon allowances. This was worth 57.663 billion yuan for the year. China is also continuing to expand the system.

In 2025, steel, cement, and primary aluminum were added to the national ETS. The expansion means the national market now includes over 60% of Chinaโ€™s total carbon emissions, says Chinaโ€™s Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

China aims to make its national carbon market more comprehensive by 2030. This includes broader coverage, better allowance controls, and a voluntary market that aligns more closely with international standards.

china compliance carbon market ets

That makes China a potentially important future participant in international carbon market cooperation.

Brazil and China Are Already Building Market Links

The potential bilateral agreement is also part of a broader effort to make different carbon markets more compatible. Brazil launched the Open Coalition for Regulated Carbon Markets at COP30. China and the European Union are among its participants.

The coalition focuses on areas such as monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), carbon accounting, offset rules, and market interoperability. Brazil says the longer-term goal is to make regulated carbon markets more compatible and potentially allow deeper connections between them.

The coalition now has an important next step in Wuhan.

Brazil, China, and the EU are expected to advance a work plan for improving compatibility between their carbon markets. The group has expanded beyond its original members and now represents a significant share of global emissions.

This wider cooperation could simplify future carbon credit trading. It would create consistent rules for measuring and tracking emissions reductions.

High-Integrity Credits Will Be the Price of Entry

For Brazil, access to China’s market would only be valuable if the credits could meet strict quality requirements.

Brazilian carbon market officials have emphasized the need for high-integrity credits before any international transactions take place. The government’s plan requires that internationally transferred credits follow approved methods. They must also get authorization from Brazil’s national authority.

That requirement is especially important because Brazil has a large pipeline of nature-based climate projects, including forest conservation and restoration.

The government will need to ensure that exported mitigation outcomes are real, measurable, and properly accounted for. Otherwise, international transfers could create risks for Brazil’s own climate targets. The same issue applies to China. Any future bilateral market must provide confidence that credits bought by Chinese entities or the Chinese government represent genuine emissions reductions.

BRAZIL CHINA Carbon credit cop31

COP31 Could Become the Next Carbon Market Milestone

The next two months could be important for Brazilโ€™s international carbon market strategy. The September 14โ€“18 Wuhan meetings could advance Brazil-China talks, while COP31 in November could provide a potential deadline for announcing a bilateral framework.

Still, expectations should remain measured. Brazil is implementing its domestic carbon market, while its international transfer rules are still being developed. China is also refining its own ETS.

A Brazil-China agreement would not immediately create a large carbon credit market. Instead, it could establish the rules and institutional foundation for future ITMO transactions.

That would still be significant. Brazil has major potential for emissions reductions and removals, while China has a large and expanding carbon market. Linking the two could open a new channel for climate finance and strengthen Article 6 trading among two major emerging economies.

The bigger question is whether they can build a system that makes cross-border carbon trading credible, transparent, and scalable. If an agreement is reached by COP31, it could become an important test of how major developing economies use Article 6 to finance decarbonization.